All lights fall on Mukesh Ambani's backroom boy Anand Jain who now leads a big infrastructure rollout from the front.BAIJU KALESHIn the Ambani versus Ambani drama, a man from the margins is now hogging the script. Anand Jain of Jai Corp Ltd has launched himself from the shadow-boxing between the two brothers to the brightly-lit corporate proscenium. Jain, Mukesh Ambani's school friend from third standard and trusted financial advisor, has seen his fortune taking shape through the cut and thrust of the biggest corporate joust of the country. Jain's company — Rs 350-crore Jai Corp — shot into limelight last week after it sold shares worth Rs 2,200 crore to a clutch of foreign financial investors. Jain's family sold 12.6 per cent (2.9 crore shares) of its 87.6 per cent stake at Rs 1,035 a share. Jai Corp stock skyrocketed to astronomical levels of Rs 20,000 from Rs 9,000 in a fortnight, stunning many retail investors who had sold their shares two years ago for a measly Rs 60 a share. K. Balakrishnan, a retail investor, who sold his 31 shares for a profit of Rs 29 a share in 2005, regrets not holding on to them. "They would would have fetched Rs 6 lakh now," he says, wondering what is driving the stock now. Balakrishnan will not wonder who Jain went to school with. Jain is not only Mukesh's trusted financial advisor but also his school friend. Behind his bond with Mukesh is a relationship of more than 25 years, which also saw Jain supporting Mukesh through the family business split. Jain is keen to unlock value in his galvanised plain and corrugated steel sheets.In a presentation to investors he hinted unlocking value in this steel business through a public offering or a private placement of shares. Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani's close relationship with Jain helps him circumvent a non-compete clause he signed with his brother when they carved up their father's business in June 2005.
Mukesh is bound by the agreement to stay away from businesses which Anil is in, for the next five years. However, Jai Corp is launching into many of those businesses with Mukesh's support. The market capitalisation of Jai Corp shot up from Rs 339.76 crore in October last year to the stratospheric Rs 19,515.02 crore on Wednesday, 17 October. Just a year before, the market capitalisation was just Rs 96.18 crore in the same month when the company was still weaving yarn and making galvanised corrugated steel and jumbo bags used to pack cement and food grains. When Jai Corp moved to infrastructure projects, its market fortune also took a turn. The stock soared on the BSE to reach newhighs when the board announced a 1:1 bonus and a stock splitof 1:10. As Jai Corp diversified into real estate over the last two years, Jain found himself in the land of plenty. He became the chairman of two SEZs in Mumbai and also floated a real estate focused asset management company. Last year, he launched the country's largest real estate investmentmanagement company — Urban Infrastructure Venture Capital (UIVCPL ) — with a fund that manages $1.1 billion (Rs 4,400 crore). UIVCPL is the Indian advisor to Urban Infrastructure Real Estate Fund, a Mauritius-based offshore fund for investing in India. Sources say he is one of the largest real estate owners in the state. {mospagebreal} Just as Jai Corp's stock made a vertical lift, Jain's designs also leapt up from the drawing board. He is among the high riders of an incipient infrastructure boom, and if he carries on with his ambitions andhis spot of luck also holds, he might get into the top corporate order. As real estate seems to be yielding surreal gains to him, he is seen to be pulling out all stops. From ports to airports to power, every sector that shines is his. The Mukesh Ambani spring board has flung him high. Jain has joined hands with his friend Mukesh to promote Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and develop ports in Navi Mumbai and Maharashtra's Raigad district.
Jai Corp is building a power station, a port and an airport for Mukesh's SEZ projects.Mukesh has acquired more than 50 per cent ownership in the Navi Mumbai SEZ. The remaining stake is owned by Nikhil Gandhi, who is the original promoter of the project, Jai Corpand City and Industrial Development Corporation. Jai Corp is also expanding the greenfield Rewas Port near Mumbai, which it jointly owns with Maharashtra Maritime Board, Amma Lines and Reliance Logistics. Sources say Jai Corp will bid for developing a large airport in Navi Mumbai, adjacent to the SEZ. Jai Corp also has plans to foray into power generation and its distribution and transmission to the SEZ, and will float three special purpose vehicles to undertake this business. It will also build a 700MW gas based power plant within the SEZ.People affected by the Mukesh Ambani-promoted MSEZ would be given 12.5 per cent of the developed land, a compensation at market rates for their land, assurance of employment after successful completion of training, and two years' sustenance payment for landless labourers.Village infrastructure would also be upgraded by spending around Rs. 90 crore.
Mukesh trusts Jain so much that he has made him chairman of Reliance Haryana SEZ, a joint venture between RIL, which holds 90 per cent in it, and the Haryana government. Jain, a commerce graduate with a passion for the stockmarket and real estate business, has been a financial advisor and trouble-shooter to his friend, a role that has earned him the wrath of Mukesh's younger brother Anil Ambani. During the fight with Mukesh to split the Reliance group, Anil had alleged that the rift with Mukesh was created by Jain and Manoj Modi, who now heads Reliance Retail. "My relationship with Mukesh is friendship without any expectations from him,'' Jain recently told a close friend. Though Jain does not own a single share, he acts as a strategic advisor to RIL for all stockmarket and real estate transactions. RIL's portfolio of investments was about $28 billion ( Rs1.12 lakh crore), including the shares of RPL, Mukesh told shareholders at the last AGM.Though Jain operates from a small office at Nariman Point, he is now in the middle of the hottest corporate action. His company is developing an SEZ outside Mumbai which will house an International Financial Centre, an IT park, and a diamond bourse that would rival Antwerp's. The IT park will bring in several IT companies into Maharashtra, which lost business in this space to Southern cities such as Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad. "We can even provide uplinking facilities for media entertainment companies,'' says a company official who does not wish to be quoted. A neighbouring city will reduce traffic congestion in Mumbai. The company has even proposed the setting up of a hovercraft service along the city's coastal line connecting it to Navi Mumbai. {mospagebreal} Sources say Jain, who is a master in solving complex problems, has turned the SEZ deal in Reliance's favour wielding his negotiating skills with Nikhil Gandhi, the original promoter of Maha Mumbai SEZ. Gandhi initially approached the Tata Group to partner him to build the special economic zone. But when the diversified conglomerate took time to arrive at a decision, Jain spotted the opportunity, took the lead and clinched the deal for his friend Mukesh. Jain is also gifted with a skill to settle family disputes. Sources said he amicably settled the dispute in Arvind Poddar family that owns Balakrishna Industries. Jain may be known by the redoubtable company he keeps, but his eye-popping success is due also to his own business acumen. Jain is the man who knew his moment and did not miss his chance.His spectacular jump into the rapids of mainstream business will repeatedly test this very instinct of his.
"Sources"
Regards,
ARUN
I may be reached at arunanalyst@rediffmail.com
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
The Jai Corp Corporate story
Sunday, October 28, 2007
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Buy Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) : Target 1425
Tata Consultancy Services
Cluster: Evergreen
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,425
Current market price: Rs1,073
A decent performance
Result highlights
- Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has reported a growth of 8.4% quarter on quarter (qoq) and of 25.8% year on year (yoy) in its consolidated revenues to Rs5, 639.8 crore during Q2FY2008. The sequential growth in the revenues was contributed by an 8.2% overall growth in the volume, an 85-basis-point improvement in the billing rates (including productivity gains) and a hedging profit of 86 basis points (around Rs45 crore). On the other hand, the appreciation in the rupee and offshore shift adversely affected the revenue growth by 51 basis points and 99 basis points respectively, on a sequential basis.
- The earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin improved by 77 basis points to 23.8% sequentially during the quarter. This was contributed by the cumulative impact of the overall productivity gains (of 109 basis points), offshore shift (of 36 basis points) and hedging gains (of 79 basis points). On the flip side, in addition to the rupee appreciation (a negative impact of 30 basis points), the incremental wage cost of 117 basis points resulting from the promotions affected the margin during the quarter. The operating profit grew by 12% qoq and 18.5% yoy to Rs1,343.9 crore.
- The other income declined by 27.2% qoq to Rs110.5 crore, largely due to a lower foreign exchange (forex) fluctuation gain of Rs57.7 crore (compared with Rs107 crore in Q1). However, despite the higher tax rate (14% as against 11.3% in Q1FY2008) and a lower other income component, the company showed a sequential growth of 7.8% to Rs1,246.9 crore (after adjusting the Q1 earnings for the one-time write-back of Rs29.3 crore of provision made earlier). On an annual basis, the consolidated earnings have grown by 25.9%.
- In terms of the outlook, the company doesn't give any specific growth guidance. However, it has re-iterated that the demand environment continues to be robust with no signs of any slowdown in banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) space and the US geography. The company signed three large sized deals of over $50 million (including one in the BFSI vertical) during the quarter. It also entered into master service agreements with three other clients (a couple of them from the banking space) that can potentially generate revenues equivalent to any other large deal. The pipeline of the large orders is also healthy with around 20 deals of over $50 million each. In terms of margins, the company expects to maintain the EBIT margin at around 25% in FY2008 (in line with the same as reported in FY2007).
- In terms of key operational highlights, the net addition of 9,268 employees is higher than expectations. This coupled with the campus offers of 22,295 fresh graduates this season (up from around 11,500 in the last fiscal) clearly reflects the management's confidence in the growth outlook of the company. Another noticeable point is the healthy double-digit sequential growth in all the relatively new service lines (such as consulting, engineering, assurance, business process outsourcing [BPO] and enterprise solutions). Moreover, the BFSI vertical showed an 11.3% sequential growth during the quarter.
- At the current market price, the stock trades at 20.9x FY2008 and 17.3x FY2009 estimated earnings. We maintain the Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs1,425 (around 23x FY2009E earning per share [EPS]).
Buy Axis Bank
Axis Bank
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,054
Current market price: Rs815
Price target revised to Rs1,054
Result highlights
- Axis Bank's Q2FY2008 numbers are much above the market's and our expectations with the profit after tax (PAT) reporting a growth of 60.4% to Rs227.8 crore compared with our estimate of Rs199 crore. The high growth was driven by a robust increase in both interest and non-interest income segments. Due to the excellent set of numbers reported during Q2FY2008 we have upgraded our earnings estimates by 15.7% and 16.7% for FY2008 and FY2009 respectively.
- The net interest income (NII) was up by 72.9% year on year (yoy) and 39.9% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs588.7 crore. However the bank had raised capital of Rs4,534 crore during the quarter and excluding the possible interest income earned on such float funds, the quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) NII growth would moderate to 15.7%.
- The reported net interest margin (NIM) expanded by 36 basis points yoy and by 56 basis points qoq. Our calculation suggests that around six basis points were added to the NIM due to the possible income earned on the follow-on public offer (FPO) float funds. A marginal sequential increase in the NIM was expected as the asset yields were expected to improve after the low yielding priority sector advances taken on the books during Q4FY2007 had run off. However, the substantial portion of the expansion in the NIM was due to the improvement in the cost of funds brought about by the retirement of high-cost term deposits with the capital raised by the bank.
- The bank's assets grew by 39.8% yoy and 5.6% qoq, driven by a strong advances growth of 53.5% yoy and 8.3% qoq. The deposits grew by 30.9% yoy and 8% qoq with an improvement in the savings deposits, which grew by 48% yoy and 17% qoq. The term deposits declined by 7.9% qoq, which helped the bank to improve its reported cost of funds by 25 basis points sequentially to 6.18% from 6.43% in June 2007.
- The non-interest income was up 87% yoy and 4% qoq to Rs382.9 crore, driven by a higher trading income of Rs102.5 crore, which grew by 339% yoy and 6% qoq. The core fee income was also up by a robust 69% yoy and 7.1% qoq.
- The operating profit was up 85.3% yoy and 25.8% qoq to Rs368 crore while the core operating profit was up 70.8% yoy and 37% qoq to Rs368 crore. Provisions and contingencies grew by 236.3% yoy and 13.4% qoq to Rs114.5 crore. Despite the strong asset growth, the asset quality improved with the net non-performing assets (NPAs) at 0.55% of customer assets, down four basis points sequentially.
- Axis Bank raised capital to the tune of Rs4,534 crore through a combination of global depository receipt (GDR), qualified institutional placement (QIP) and preferential allotment during the quarter. This helped to improve its capital adequacy ratio (CAR) to 17.6% (from 11.5% in June 2007) with the Tier-I CAR at 13%. This substantial capital-raising programme (almost 25% of the pre-issue equity) has depressed its return on equity (RoE) to 13.6% from 19%, which is along the expected lines.
- The bank has also recently decided to foray into the mutual fund business. It has already set up its wealth management business and planned a private equity fund to invest in the infrastructure segment. We feel these are the building blocks that the bank management is putting in place and that would adequately complement its banking business. This strategy would also open up a new channel of steady fee income. Thus, its robust fee income growth could help in restoring the fall in its RoE much sooner than in the past occasions when it had raised capital. It has been registering a phenomenal asset growth without compromising on its margin and asset quality. All these developments make Axis Bank one of the best growth stories available in the private banking space.
- We have upgraded our earnings estimates by 15.7% and 16.7% for FY2008 and FY2009 respectively. The upward revision in the earnings is mainly because of the improvement in the core net interest income prospects with a decline in the term deposits during the quarter, the robust trend in the fee income and higher trading profits than envisaged at the beginning of the financial year. This has also resulted in our estimated RoE improving by 90 basis points and 150 basis points for FY2008 and FY2009 respectively.
- At the current market price of Rs815, the stock is quoting at 21.6x its FY2009E earnings per share (EPS), 10.1x its FY2009E pre-provisioning profit (PPP) and 3x its FY2009E book value (BV). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised 12-month forward price target of Rs1,054.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Vbc Ferro-Scrip with real stock Power call
As i told in the community i covered the scrip sometimes earlier.But to safeguard the vested interest of my subscribers i cudnt put the report.Anyway it has moved a lot and here is the note of it.
Scripscan-VBC FERRO ALLOYS
Cmp-206
Target-410
Duration-9-12 months
In last few months, Power Industry Stocks have been blazing a new trail with record rise in their share prices:
1) Indowind came out with IPO at Rs. 60/- and has more than doubled since then
2) Torrent Power is having P.E. of more than 50/-.
3) GVK Power P.E. Ratio is 180/-.
4) Reliance Energy P.E. Ratio has jumped to more than 40/-.
Finally, Reliance Power has only bagged Sasan Power Project which will be implemented by 2012 but, is confident of IPO of Rs. 2/- F.V. at Rs. 70-80. In such a scenario, VBC Ferro appears solid bet considering massive value of its investments in Power Sector.
VBC Ferro is engaged in the production of Ferro Silicon and Silico Manganese. For Year Ended 31st March 2007, company had reported sales of Rs. 74 crs. and PAT of 3.72 crs. Its Equity is Rs. 419,49,875 (approx. 41.95 lakh shares). Scrip is being cornered by knowledgeable investors due to expected unlocking of huge hidden value of its investments.
VBC Ferro Alloys had promoted Konaseema Gas Power Ltd. (KGPL) in East Godavari District. KGPL is Gas Based Power Project which has in Phase-I, already implemented 445 MW Power Plant. Plant for the same has been supplied by Siemens. EPC is by L&T and O&M is by NTPC. As on date, VBC Ferro is holding 11.585 cr. shares at a cost of Rs.115.85 crs. being 27.91% Equity of KGPL.
Other share holders of KGPL are:
Name Equity (%)
--------- ---------------
L&T 5.06
ILFS 6.75
LIC 4.82
GIC 4.82
IDBI 8.43
International Power Vision 2.01
TIFOI 8.89%
Project cost of Phase-I was 1383 crs. Phase-I is ready to become operational but gas supplies did not start yet. As a result, project cost stands increased to around 1700 crs. Now, KGPL has embarked on Phase-II which involves setting up of 820 MW Plant at a cost of Rs. 2782 crs. which works out to Rs. 3.39 cr. per M.W. D.E. Ratio will be 4:1. Phase-II is likely to be implemented by April 2010. Phase-II is being erected at the existing site to avail of ready infrastructure.
VBC Ferro will take another 3 cr. shares at Rs. 5/- premium (total Rs. 45 crs.) which will enhance its total holding in KGPL to 14.585 cr. shares. KGPL has already tied-up with RIL and GSPCL for gas supply which is likely to commence from March 2008. Company has also signed an M.O.U. with PTC for sale of 50% of total power generation. KGPL is ideally located as it is hardly 15 Km. from K.G. Basin. In Phase-II, following FII are likely to take Equity of KGPL:
1) POSF Ltd.
2) SAS Trustee.
3) Statewide Superannuation Pty Ltd.
4) Westscheme Pty Ltd
L&T is providing 66 cr. deferred payment credit. It is reliably learnt that for Phase-II, KGPL may make pre-IPO placement of Equity at Rs. 50/- per share. A report in Eco Times (Page No. 19) dated 15th Oct. says "Four Australian Pension Funds are in advanced talks to invest over Rs. 1300 cr. in KGPL. About 26 cr. shares would be placed to the funds at a price of about Rs. 45-50 per share. The IPO is expected to be announced in the first half of 2008 once KGPL gets gas supply". If, holding of VBC Ferro in KGPL is valued at same price of Rs. 50/-, 14.585 cr. shares of VBC Ferro get a value of Rs. 729 crs. This works out to Rs. 1730/- per share whereas CMP of VBC Ferro is just 12% of same.
Once, KGPL gets gas supply and power generation starts in June -08, company may come out with IPO at Rs. 100/- per share. Considering that Reliance Power may price its IPO at Rs. 2/- at Rs. 80/- per share (Rs. 400/- for Rs. 10/- F.V.) although, its Power Plant will be commissioned in 2012, KGPL IPO at Rs. 100/- should be a big success. Thus, Equity Holding of VBC Ferro (calculated at Rs. 100/-) should command market value of nearly Rs. 1500 crs. It is reliably learnt that VBC Ferro may make preferential offer of its Equity to some FII at Rs. 300/- per share which will take its Equity to around 6.2 cr. shares (62 lakh shares). Even then, market value of VBC Holding in KGPL will work out to nearly Rs. 2400/- per share. KGPL may be listed at significant premium to its IPO price of Rs. 100/- considering of renowned strategic investors.
VBC Ferro also holds 60 lakh shares in Orissa Power Corporation which is implementing 100 MW Hydel Power Plant out of which 20 MW may start operations in next 3 months. This investment may also have market value of nearly 60 crs. Further, VBC Ferro is investing money in another company which is implementing 45 MW Thermal Power Plant which will supply power to VBC Ferro at concessional rates to bring down power cost of VBC Ferro.
In fact, KGPL IPO may turn out to be one of the hottest IPOs of 2008 considering giants like L&T, ILFS, IDBI, GIC, LIC, Australian Funds are share holder of KGPL (very few companies will have such a big list of renowned investors). KGPL has settled for the best in all respects as Siemens, L&T, NTPC are also associated with it for plant and its erection. It is not proper to forecast at what price KGPL will be listed but, we can value investment of VBC Ferro at proposed IPO price of Rs. 100/- then, value of its investment will work out to Rs. 2400/- per share. Looking at this, VBC Ferro is really underpriced as company makes profits from its core business as well. Once, announcement about QIP at Rs. 300/- is made, VBC Ferro Scrip will be re-rated.
Conclusion-We feel that share price of VBC Ferro can easily go upto Rs. 300-350/- in just 4-6 months. Once, pre-IPO placement at Rs. 50/- is finalized, thereafter share price can race ahead to Rs. 400-450/- as scrip is bound to catch fancy of brokers/FIs very soon. A terrific Buy.
Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at-arunanalyst@rediffmail.com
Buy This Long Term Stock : Kaveri Seeds
Kaveri has become synonymous with premium quality seeds possessing genetically superior traits.
Kaveri has a sizable share in Indian seed market. Its product development line is full of new hybrids with high yielding potential together with tolerance to major pest and diseases.
The Company is totally dedicated for the welfare of Indian farmer by providing the best planting material. Recently the company has taken over the business of micro-nutrients and bio-products from Kaveri Agriteck, thus providing fully integrated solutions to the farmers under on roof.
GVB Rao & Company was started by Mr GV Bhaskar Rao in 1976. This small company started seed production of public varieties of corn, pearl millet and rice. An American seed MNC recognized this small but commendable effort and GVB Rao & Co was appointed as their producer-distributor.
GVB Rao & Co started its own breeding programme and introduced the first ever-proprietary private corn hybrid in South India. This corn hybrid released by the Company had an edge over the existing public varieties in terms of yield. Farmers were thrilled with the performance of this hybrid and the brand became instantly popular. Inspired by this success, G V B Rao & Co ventured in to value added breeding.
In 1986, GVB Rao & Company became Kaveri Seed Company Private Limited and further fortified its efforts in the service of farmers. It diversified in to proprietary hybrid seeds of other crops like sunflower, pearl millet, sorghum and rice. Kaveri has a very strong position in corn and sunflower with hybrids often performing better than the competitors' do.
Recently the Company has ventured into breeding and marketing of hybrid vegetable seeds.
With constant and consistent improvement in performance of hybrids and augmented with quality, naturally Kaveri has become a preferred seed brand. The popularity percolated to other parts of the country and we advanced our marketing network nationwide.
The sustenance in business and an ever improving graph of top-line and bottom-line made Kaveri a different seed company from the rest.
The Company noticed the disturbing trend in crop husbandry, the soil is deprived of its fertility and useful soil micro flora. Yields have started declining. In poor soils, the farmer is not able to harness the full potential of high yielding seeds.
Kaveri sensed the need to replenish the soils of its nutrients and micro flora and reclaim the fertility in a scientific way. For the same reason Kaveri Seeds has taken over Kaveri Agriteck, having a proven record of accomplishment and a good network to deal with micro nutrients and bio-products.
Kaveri Seeds sees FY09 PBT at Rs 47 cr
Kaveri Seed has listed at Rs 210.55, with premium of 23.85% over its offer price of Rs 170.
C Mithun, Director of Kaveri Seeds sees FY08 bottomline at Rs 20 crore and EPS at Rs 15. He expects FY09 PBT to be at Rs 47 crore.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with C Mithun:
Q: What do you expect in terms of revenues and profits in FY08?
A: We are aiming for a topline of Rs 100 crore and bottomline around Rs 20 crore.
Q: Rs 20 crore, so you would end up at an EPS close to Rs 13 odd?
A: Close to Rs 15 per share.
Q: What kind of growth can you exhibit over FY08?
A: We are aiming at Rs 150 crore in FY08-FY09 and we are targeting around Rs 47 crore PBT.
Q: There are some concerns that you have got too much concentration in specific products and your geographical presence is also quite limited. How would you address these concerns?
A: Earlier we use to market our seeds in southern states, now we have expanded to the northern part as well and major contribution will come from the northern part in FY08-09, which will further increase in FY09-10. We were mainly concentrated on the seeds of sunflower and maze, now we are into cotton and we want to make significant market share in cotton also.
Q: Do you think your margins can be protected at the current levels over the next two years? There is quite a bit of competition from local players and multinationals in the fields that you are operating in.
A: I think it will improve further, because earlier we use to trade in high volumes and low value. Now we are trading in high value and low volume seeds and we will further increase the profitability.
Q: How would you compare yourself to a bigger player like Advanta?
A: Though we are in the same business the objective is different. Our main aim is for the Indian markets and they are looking globally. We do not compare ourselves against it as we have different markets for different players.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Ambika Cotton Mills : Short Term Target
- The Company was promoted by Shri P K Ganeshwar, Shri M Rathanasamy and Shri P V Chandran, for setting up a cotton spinning mill. The mill, located in Dindigul, Tamil Nadu, commenced operations in January 1990. The project, with an initial capacity of 6048 spindles was part-financed by a term loan from State Bank of India. The Company carried out an expansion scheme to add certain back-process machinery in February 1991, which was also funded by the State Bank of India.
1992 - The company began implementation of an expansion project to double its spindlage to 12096 spindles by the addition of 6048 spindles. This project which was financed by means of a medium term loan from State Bank of India and the State Bank of Mysore on a consortium and through a Deferred Payment Guarantee limit from IDBI. The project was successfully completed in March 1993.
1994 - The Company added Comber machines to its production line and humidification system. This was funded by SIPCOT through a term loan of Rs. 90.86 lacs.
- The Company currently manufactures combed and carded cotton yarn of counts ranging from 30's to 40's. These are used by hosiery manufacturers to convert the same into fabric or garments.
| Quarterly results in brief | (Rs crore) |
| Jun ' 07 | Mar ' 07 | Dec ' 06 | Sep ' 06 | Jun ' 06 | |
| Sales | 35.64 | 32.23 | 39.52 | 38.87 | 30.56 |
| Operating profit | 10.29 | 8.18 | 12.37 | 11.95 | 9.82 |
| Interest | 3.25 | 2.95 | 2.16 | 2.25 | 2.03 |
| Gross profit | 8.39 | 7.00 | 10.56 | 9.82 | 7.93 |
| EPS (Rs) | 8.26 | 6.06 | 11.83 | 10.16 | 8.02 |
| Quarterly results in details |
| Jun ' 07 | Mar ' 07 | Dec ' 06 | Sep ' 06 | Jun ' 06 | |
| Other income | 1.35 | 1.77 | 0.35 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Stock adjustment | -0.48 | -1.73 | 0.10 | -0.10 | -1.69 |
| Raw material | 18.77 | 17.43 | 20.35 | 20.78 | 16.66 |
| Power and fuel | - | - | - | - | - |
| Employee expenses | 2.13 | 2.20 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.58 |
| Excise | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| Admin and selling expenses | - | - | - | - | - |
| Research and development expenses | - | - | - | - | - |
| Expenses capitalised | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other expenses | 4.80 | 5.94 | 4.58 | 4.32 | 4.06 |
| Provisions made | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation | 2.92 | 2.84 | 2.86 | 3.05 | 2.67 |
| Taxation | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.55 |
| Net profit / loss | 4.85 | 3.56 | 6.95 | 5.97 | 4.71 |
| Extra ordinary item | - | - | - | - | - |
| Prior year adjustments | - | - | - | - | - |
| Equity capital | 5.88 | 5.88 | 5.88 | 5.88 | 5.88 |
| Equity dividend rate | - | - | - | - | - |
| Agg.of non-prom. shares (Lacs) | 38.61 | - | - | - | 42.25 |
| Agg.of non promotoholding (%) | 65.73 | - | - | - | 71.92 |
| OPM (%) | 28.87 | 25.38 | 31.30 | 30.74 | 32.13 |
| GPM (%) | 22.68 | 20.59 | 26.49 | 25.19 | 25.83 |
| NPM (%) | 13.11 | 10.47 | 17.43 | 15.31 | 15.3 |
| Annual results in brief | (Rs crore) |
| Mar ' 07 | Mar ' 06 | Mar ' 05 | Mar ' 04 | Mar ' 03 | |
| Sales | 141.18 | 105.38 | 86.11 | 89.43 | 81.60 |
| Operating profit | 42.32 | 33.86 | 20.49 | 20.18 | 14.69 |
| Interest | 9.39 | 6.29 | 4.01 | 4.92 | 4.59 |
| Gross profit | 35.31 | 29.10 | 18.77 | 17.46 | 11.76 |
| EPS (Rs) | 29.50 | 32.29 | 25.36 | 24.62 | 16.30 |
| Cotton Advisory Board estimates crop at 300 lakh bales |
G. Gurumurthy
Coimbatore, Aug.19
Despite a decelerated performance by cotton textile industry in the past two quarters, yet another bumper cotton production projected for the ensuing 2007-08 season has raised interests on how this commodity will behave price-wise over the next two months.
The good news is that the country will have surplus cotton this year.
The last week's Cotton Advisory Board meet has put the 2007-08 crop estimation at 300 lakh bales plus. The domestic cotton trade has pitched for even higher crop size of 312-325 lakh bales.
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) in a State-wise crop estimation has put its initial crop estimation for 2007-08 at 310-312 lakh bales.
The CCI crop data point to a five per cent crop area rise at 95 lakh acres from last year's 91 lakh acres giving six per cent increase in production.
'The higher cotton output anticipated for 2007-08 season gives out the indication that the domestic prices will not be high and at the same time, it will enable the country to export more cotton ', feels Mr Subash C. Grover, CCI Chairman and Managing Director.
As against 55 lakh bales export in 2006-07, according to Mr Grover, it would be in the order of 60 lakh bales or even more in the new season.
Whereas the private trade estimates the exports in the new season to be as high as 70 lakh bales going by the current enquiries.
CCI which exported 1.60 lakh bales in 2006-07 is expected to double its export this year.
Already 5/6 lakh bales of cotton of 2007-08 crop had been committed for December 2007 shipment at Rs 19,500-19,800.
Bulk of cotton export last year was for China, followed by Bangladesh, Pakistan and for the other S-E Asian countries.
This year too, the shipment to China would dominate total cotton export.
The cotton export projection coupled with the paling price parity between international cotton and India (67-69 cents per pound at New York Futures and the Rs 19,500-20,000 per candy price quote in domestic market) has, however, unnerved the domestic spinners, most of whom are already facing severe liquidity crunch in yarn market. 'We expect huge cotton export this year as there has been a strong demand for cottons (that goes for 20s-40s count yarn especially) produced from Gujarat and these varieties are specially preferred by China and Pakistan.
'So, good quality cotton available at the beginning of the season will move out of India', feels Mr P.V. Chandran, Managing Director, Ambica Cotton Mills Ltd.
He held that in the absence of the country lacking strategy in retaining quality cotton, domestic mills having weak finances would be hit.
Improved port logistic between India and China has rendered freight for raw cotton to China cost-competitive, according to Mr Viswanathan, Secretary of South India Cotton Association, and a shipper can move one cotton container of 165 bales at a freight of $200-250, whereas within India, the cost of transporting 100 bales from North to a unit in South India by road would be anything from Rs 37,000 to Rs 42,000.
This and the increased recognition in international market of India's cotton being free of contamination has led India turning into a net cotton exporter.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Fertilizer industry stocks in limelight in India
The rapid build-up of fertilizer production capacity in the country has been achieved as a result of a favorable policy environment facilitating large investments in the public, co-operative and private sectors.
There are 57 large sized fertilizer plants in the country manufacturing a wide range of nitrogenous, phosphatic and complex fertilizers. Out of these, 29 unit produce urea, 20 units produce DAP and complex fertilizers, 7 units produce low analysis straight nitrogenous fertilizers and the remaining 9-manufacture ammonium sulphate as a by-product.
The most widely used fertilizers include nitrogenous (N), phosphatic (P) and potassic (K). Potassic fertilizer is not manufactured in India and is imported. The installed capacity of fertilizer industry in the country is about 12 m MT of nitrogen and 5.1 MT of phosphatic nutrients.
Urea (85% of N fertilizer consumption) constitutes 58% of the total fertilizer consumption in the country. Di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) accounts for approximately 66% of India's consumption of phosphatic fertilizers.
The nitrogenous fertilizer segment is regulated through price controls. The government fixes two prices: the price at which the manufacturers should sell to the farmers and the retention price, which the manufacturer should have received from the farmer. The government reimburses the difference in the selling price and the retention price in the form of a subsidy.
The demand is very high now. Industry observers say that most fertilizer companies are operating with increased capacity to meet the rabi season demand. Here is also hope in the market that the government may soon come out with a new pricing policy to encourage fertilizer production by exempting manufacturers producing beyond their stated capacities from sharing their extra gain with the Government.
The consumption of chemical fertilizers (in terms of nutrients) rose by 9.5 per cent to 18.4 million tonnes during 2004-05 as compared with previous year, while urea consumption was higher by 4.5 per cent on year-on-year basis.
The estimated consumption of fertilizers for the first half of the current fiscal stood at 10.1 million tonnes.
Domestic production of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizer has been estimated at 15.603 million tonnes in 2005-06 as against 15.405 million tonnes in 2004-05.
In terms of consumption of fertilizers per hectare, the all India average increased to 96.6 kg in 2004-05 against 88.2 kg in the year-ago period.
Consumption of fertilizers varied significantly among States. While in the plains, per hectare consumption was high in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh, it was low in Rajasthan, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh and the north-eastern States.
The production of single super phosphate (SSP) has become unviable due to increase in the price of inputs and no change in MRP and subsidy, leading to capacity utilization in the industry falling to 37 per cent, they said.
The prospects of the fertilizer business depend largely on Government policy. Indian fertilizer industry is globally competitive but the policies of the Government need to be changed, according to market pundits. "There should be decontrol and direct subsidization to unleash the potential of the Indian industry, they say.
According to the estimates made by the Department of Fertilizers, the demand for urea, DAP and muriate of potash (MoP) during the rabi season stands at 12.709 million tonnes, 4.819 million tonnes and 1.858 million tonnes, respectively. Domestic production of urea has been estimated to be about 10.271 million tonnes and DAP 2.361 million tonnes. The shortfall would have to be imported and for MoP the entire requirement needs to be imported, officials said.
However, Monsoon holds the key to the future prospects of the fertilizer industry. A good monsoon will spurt foodgrains production and consequently the demand for fertilizers. There has been a fair amount of optimism about the growth prospects of the Indian agricultural sector and thus, by extension, the fertilizer industry.
Abundant rainfall and healthy water storage levels across the country are likely to result in higher offtake for its fertilizer business.
Major Players
Chambal Fertilizers
Coromandel Fert
Deepak Fert
Godavari Fert
GNFC
GSFC
Nagarjuna Fert
United Phosphorus
Tata Chemicals
SPIC
National Fert.
FACT
RCF
Iffco
Indo Gulf Fert
Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilizers
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Intraday - Fraction Theory
Choose a share for intraday and apply this formula
H+L+C=A (where H= Previous day high, L=Previous day low, C=Previous day close, A= sum. of H L &C)
A*0.67=Z (0.67 is a constant fraction and Z=Result)
Z- H = S (S = Support for that day)
Z- L = R (R = Resistence for that day)
Z- C = P.B (P.B = Possible Buy)
If P.B is found nearer to R sale it for intraday
This is called FRACTION THEORY and every one can get support resistence for nifty /sensex by this method.
try this theory and it is very effective .
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Petronet plans to extend Qatar LNG deal
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Petronet LNG plans to extend its short-term deal to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar's Rasgas until December 2008, the Indian firm's director of finance told reporters on Tuesday.
Amitava Sengupta said Petronet wants to import an additional 750,000 tonnes of LNG under the agreement.
The LNG began arriving in July at Petronet's Dahej terminal in western India, and is being piped to the former Dabhol power plant in Maharashtra, which is now known as Ratnagiri.
"We have already extended the deal till September and we will talk to our existing suppliers to extend it further to December 2008," Sengupta said.
He said the power plant needed an average of two cargoes of 150 million cubic metres a month.
"If the contract is extended the total quantity would be two million tonnes," he said.
Sengupta said the current price of $8.5 a million British thermal units (mmBtu) would remain valid until December 2008.
The firm's managing director, Prosad Dasgupta, in July had said that the short-term contract with Rasgas contained a clause to double the contract size.
Petronet LNG has been asked to ensure the supply of LNG for Dabhol until September 2009, when state gas transmission company GAIL (India) Ltd. will take responsibility for supplies.
Petronet has been seeking LNG to secure energy supplies as demand grows in Asia's third-largest consumer.
Last month, its signed a draft agreement with Exxon Mobil Corp to buy 2.5 million tonnes of LNG a year from Australia's Gorgon project for 25 years.
It is also looking to secure a large contract with Algeria.
Rasgas is also supplying India with 5 million tonnes of LNG a year under a long-term contract, and the quantity will be raised to 7.5 million tonnes a year from 2009.
New Stocks - IPO Lisiting date
Pяąđ٤٤¶™ JΘђŋ.®
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IPO Listing Date: Friday, October 12, 2007
BSE Script Code: 532901
NSE Symbol: KOUTONS
Listing in: B1 Group of Securities
ISIN: INE406I01014
Issue Price: Rs. 415/- Per Equity Share (Face Value: Rs. 10/- )
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IPO Listing Date: Monday, October 15, 2007
BSE Script Code: 532902
NSE Symbol: CCCL
Listing in: B1 Group of Securities
ISIN: INE429I01016
Issue Price: Rs. 510/- Per Equity Share (Face Value: Rs. 10/- )
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Listing Date: Friday, October 12th 2007
BSE Script Code: 506109
NSE Symbol:
Listing in: - Group
ISIN:
Base Price: Rs.33 (Face Value Rs.10/-)
Price Band: 5%
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
KS Oils : The Multibagger Stock Call
| KS Oils : Reco Price Rs. 72.50 CMP: Rs.80.55 | |
| At the CMP of Rs 72.50, KS Oils is trading at commodity valuations of EV/Sales of about 1.6x and EV/EBITDA of abou 14.9x its TTM Sales, which is extremely low compared to its peers in the FMCG industry KS Oils Ltd is the one of the reputed players in the domestic edible oil industry with major presence in Mustard Oil. It is the largest Rapeseed crusher in the country with largest crushing capacity of 1225 MT/day in India. Its manufacturing facilities have close proximity to raw materials and consumption markets i.e. Rapeseed growing and Mustard Oil consuming regions of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. This provides the company an edge over its peers by ensuring uninterrupted raw material supply and ready market for its products. KS Oils earns majority of its revenues from Crude Mustard Oil (otherwise known as Kachhi Ghani Mustard Oil, which has special preference in cold regions of India – North, East and North-East. KS Oils through its Double Sher and Kalash brands of Mustard Oil dominates the North-Eastern region with 50% market share. After the recent expansion, the Company's total installed capacity stands at: The Company operates through three divisions, namely: We are extremely bullish on the domestic packaged edible oil sector in general and companies like KS Oils in particular. We like KS Oils for the following compelling reasons: Capacity expansion to fuel volume growth - KS Oils may go for inorganic growth or setting up Greenfield projects in order to capture increased market share. At the same time it may increase its capacity utilizations. The company has created a war chest of Rs 650- 750 crore which will be used to fund capacity expansion in new projects, acquisitions as well as the company's foray into the exciting wind power generation. Its expansion plan includes five plants out of which three are located in Madhya Pradesh and the other two in Rajasthan. The company expects to commission the projects over the next 24 months. The expansion will add 4000 tonnes per day to the company's oil seeds crushing capacity — 3000 tonnes per day in solvent extraction and 1000 tonnes per day in refining. Transition from loose oil player to branded player – With strong brands under its fold, KS OILS has ascended from manufacturing & selling loose oil to manufacturing & selling branded oil in bulk and retail packs. Branded sales are likely to increase with higher contribution in revenues from small retail packs. The management's vision to become a Rs3000 crore company in next three years by increasing the share of its branded products would enable it to exercise pricing power as well as command higher margins compared to Edible Oil sector at crossroads – Indian packaged edible oil industry is expected to continue its high growth rate due to lower per capita consumption of oil, rising population, increasing disposable income from buoyant economic conditions, growing health & hygiene awareness promoting demand for packaged products and a boom in organized retail fuelling demand for branded products. Economies of scale – KS Oils with its huge capacities and world class state of the art plant benefits from economies of scale as well as has an efficiency of more than 33% compared to other crushers. This improves its profitability from increased operating efficiencies. Diversification into bio-diesel business – KS Oils with spare capacities at its disposal plans to foray into lucrative high margin bio-fuels and palm plantation business in near future, placing it on a different growth trajectory. Key Developments and Impact Financials Valuations Risks Growth Disclaimer: As per SEBI requirements it is stated that,Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares & Sec Pvt Ltd., and/or individuals thereof may have positions in securities referred herein and may make purchases or sale thereof while this report is in circulation. |
List of stocks in uptrends that are in a pullback
This list can be used to trade pullbacks. One should trade pullbacks in strong uptrending stocks only, these stocks have the greatest probability of continuing their uptrend.
DISCLAIMER: THESE ARE NOT RECOMMENDATIONS. This is just a shortlist of stocks selected by a computer program because they exhibit certain characterstics that traders generally use for selecting stocks to trade. If you select any of these stocks, you do so at your own risk. Make sure you use good money & risk management strategies to trade.
| Symbol | Last Closing Price | Avg Volume (50 Day) | % Change (1 Day) | % Change (5 Days) | % Change (21 Days) | % Change (63 Days) | MACD (12,26,9) | EMA (10) | EMA (30) | SMA (50) | ADX (14) | Stochastics (5,3,3) | RSI (14) | Parabolic SAR |
| RNRL | 92.20 | 37579079.68 | 3.42 | -1.28 | 81.67 | 121.63 | 10.71 | 87.14 | 72.45 | 58.23 | 0.00 | 44.96 | 73.82 | 99.74 |
| ISPATIND | 29.75 | 17185224.74 | -0.67 | -0.83 | 60.38 | 97.02 | 3.09 | 28.78 | 24.51 | 20.02 | 0.00 | 41.97 | 68.73 | 33.22 |
| BAGFILMS | 82.85 | 602900.90 | 0.79 | 1.22 | 43.71 | 86.18 | 7.70 | 77.52 | 66.61 | 58.37 | 0.00 | 52.24 | 78.90 | 74.94 |
| ADHUNIK | 101.80 | 722731.82 | 3.25 | 0.25 | 30.85 | 148.60 | 7.53 | 98.42 | 87.91 | 74.98 | 0.00 | 43.97 | 55.15 | 108.67 |
| NBVENTURES | 275.30 | 344706.06 | -3.64 | -1.73 | 54.49 | 40.07 | 24.40 | 255.61 | 221.59 | 197.66 | 0.00 | 65.24 | 71.11 | 260.00 |
| GUJNRECOKE | 90.00 | 3020835.24 | -0.06 | -1.91 | 29.50 | 49.75 | 6.42 | 89.84 | 81.04 | 70.57 | 0.00 | 40.61 | 55.69 | 83.50 |
| TTML | 40.90 | 33324626.70 | 1.24 | -2.50 | 18.90 | 40.79 | 2.41 | 40.39 | 37.10 | 32.90 | 0.00 | 44.78 | 65.96 | 45.49 |
| UCOBANK | 43.60 | 5141249.18 | -1.36 | -1.02 | 14.89 | 70.98 | 2.51 | 43.81 | 40.38 | 34.97 | 0.00 | 45.92 | 55.15 | 48.56 |
| KOTAKBANK | 978.95 | 882777.62 | 0.68 | -2.23 | 32.55 | 48.96 | 60.34 | 940.99 | 857.62 | 782.47 | 0.00 | 54.66 | 69.54 | 1007.60 |
| ENNOREFO | 224.00 | 11062.38 | -2.42 | 0.97 | 29.48 | 56.48 | 12.94 | 210.68 | 192.15 | 185.54 | 0.00 | 63.71 | 71.15 | 189.28 |
| TATAINVEST | 586.10 | 17119.04 | -0.32 | -0.62 | 33.87 | 25.17 | 32.72 | 579.72 | 535.18 | 483.41 | 0.00 | 27.78 | 59.46 | 572.16 |
| GIPCL | 93.20 | 778007.42 | 0.43 | -2.51 | 20.49 | 41.86 | 5.62 | 89.23 | 81.44 | 72.27 | 0.00 | 55.35 | 65.24 | 97.40 |
| COROMNFERT | 100.90 | 84858.72 | -3.12 | -2.61 | 10.76 | 20.33 | 3.91 | 102.89 | 97.48 | 92.16 | 0.00 | 30.98 | 57.40 | 123.32 |
| PNBGILTS | 26.50 | 222073.20 | -2.03 | -2.03 | 15.97 | 32.17 | 1.10 | 26.41 | 24.91 | 22.85 | 0.00 | 47.89 | 55.93 | 31.42 |
| TANLA | 593.85 | 64800.06 | 0.64 | -1.17 | 23.08 | 19.37 | 30.39 | 600.50 | 559.16 | 505.91 | 0.00 | 26.97 | 54.04 | 657.09 |
| NCLIND | 55.45 | 92073.74 | -1.60 | 0.36 | 12.82 | 22.54 | 2.04 | 56.17 | 53.38 | 49.36 | 0.00 | 19.50 | 54.48 | 52.41 |
| KLGSYSTEL | 582.05 | 103244.46 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 20.91 | 30.18 | 29.69 | 562.27 | 520.85 | 477.00 | 0.00 | 52.47 | 63.51 | 535.51 |
| TATASTEEL | 848.10 | 2875719.04 | 1.50 | -1.95 | 19.66 | 26.21 | 44.10 | 817.19 | 756.30 | 691.89 | 0.00 | 50.07 | 67.43 | 869.90 |
| GALLANTT | 18.15 | 212908.20 | 1.97 | -0.82 | 9.34 | 39.62 | 0.76 | 18.03 | 16.98 | 15.65 | 0.00 | 33.29 | 60.23 | 20.23 |
| EUROCERA | 215.35 | 59751.32 | 1.48 | -0.14 | 19.91 | 23.91 | 10.30 | 205.82 | 191.40 | 177.84 | 0.00 | 74.24 | 82.11 | 222.00 |
| RANASUG | 18.55 | 1324093.86 | 11.08 | -1.07 | 29.27 | 15.58 | 0.72 | 17.81 | 16.86 | 15.37 | 0.00 | 28.79 | 50.79 | 21.44 |
| ABGSHIP | 682.35 | 56735.44 | 0.98 | -0.73 | 14.70 | 45.97 | 29.22 | 662.63 | 621.74 | 584.05 | 0.00 | 59.53 | 57.16 | 603.00 |
| ESTL | 45.65 | 922684.40 | -0.54 | -0.33 | 8.82 | 25.76 | 1.35 | 45.46 | 43.57 | 41.35 | 0.00 | 38.37 | 59.17 | 45.49 |
| CROMPGREAV | 333.65 | 730644.04 | 0.09 | -0.15 | 4.14 | 28.67 | 8.62 | 333.70 | 321.61 | 308.04 | 0.00 | 42.14 | 60.75 | 350.63 |
| CAIRN | 179.20 | 2486355.56 | 1.47 | 0.22 | 12.70 | 12.32 | 6.14 | 177.02 | 168.66 | 157.46 | 0.00 | 51.34 | 61.09 | 183.97 |
| DREDGECORP | 622.35 | 14972.66 | 0.05 | -2.70 | 2.92 | 23.48 | 13.65 | 635.78 | 617.26 | 586.89 | 0.00 | 22.06 | 45.27 | 710.75 |
| CUMMINSIND | 432.70 | 278341.80 | -1.56 | -2.18 | 8.22 | 21.99 | 12.74 | 431.78 | 414.10 | 396.51 | 0.00 | 46.60 | 62.37 | 401.48 |
| SREINTFIN | 110.10 | 394897.74 | 1.29 | -1.48 | 10.38 | 18.39 | 3.00 | 111.73 | 107.71 | 101.51 | 0.00 | 52.00 | 43.67 | 116.70 |
Monday, October 8, 2007
Buy Dish TV Shares : Target 100
Script Name : Dish TV
| Dish TV India Ltd, Essel Group's Direct-to-Home (DTH) service provider, is looking to raise Rs 1,100 crore. "It will be a combination of debt and equity. We are in talks with people, including some who have a background and interest in the cable business. We haven't finalised anything yet," said Mr Arun K. Kapoor, CEO. The company has already invested about Rs 700 crore in the business. New campaign
During the January 1, 2007 implementation of CAS in pockets of New Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata, 20 per cent switched over to DTH services offered by Dish TV and Tata Sky, said Mr Kapoor. With the proposed extension of the system to another 55 cities by next year, Mr Kapoor is expecting to win over more subscribers. In his estimate, the 55 cities would account for 30-40 per cent of the 70 million cable homes; Dish TV's share works out to 2.1- 2.8 million new subscribers. "We are rolling out the 360 degree campaign across 4,000 towns. This is the first time that we have also brought in the Zee association. So you have the country's first DTH service provider, India's largest broadcaster and the country's biggest star coming together," said Mr Kapoor declining to comment on the financials of the campaign or the endorsement contract. The campaign is however not promising any price reductions in the set-top boxes. "In the South, Sun (Networks' Sun Direct) has already announced it prices. However, we have no plans of reducing the price of our STBs yet. Let's wait and see what happens?" said Mr Kapoor. Competition, in what is currently a three-player segment (DD Direct, and Tata Sky being the other two), is set to heat up with Bharti Telemedia, Reliance's Blue Magic and Videocon entry. Taken from Business Line |
Dish TV has launched its new campaign with a "huge" investment, the figures it did not disclose. Starring 'long term' brand ambassador Shah Rukh Khan, the campaign is hoping that when Conditional Access System, or digital cable is implemented, more people will choose DTH over CAS, and choose Dish TV over other services.
Buy SUN TV Shares : Target Rs500 : CMP : 293
Sun TV Network is a Rs 16000-crore (4 Billion $) Indian cable television network based in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. Established in 1992, it offers a plethora of television channels in 4 languages covering the whole of South India. It was the first fully privately owned Tamil channel in India when it emerged in 1992. Its serials and soaps have generated the maximum TRP for viewership all over India, making it the most popular network of channels in India. It is a regional television network in South India and thus most North Indians are unaware of it. Coupled with the DMK-backed Karunanidhi family, it was the largest political-media family in India till the split in November 2005.
All its channels occupy the top spots in their respective languages. Sun TV, in Tamil is the Network's flagship and most popular channel. Being the premier channel, Sun TV is often used to refer to the Sun TV Network in general.
Kalanithi Maran is the Chairman and Managing Director of media giant Sun Network and has been given various awards including the CNBC "Business Excellence Award" in 2005.
Sun TV Network offers 15 television channels in various languages, to viewers in the Indian sub-continent. Various networks are also available abroad for international viewers. The channel offerings are as follows:
Tamil
Telugu
Malayalam
It had also offered 2 (now defunct) channels Sun Movies and Sun Music. The latter was however relaunched years later in the present avatar with better success. Sun Movies was later relaunched as KTV.
FM Radio Stations
Visit http://www.sfm935.in/ to hear Suryan FM online
Tamil FM Stations
- Suryan FM - Chennai - 93.5 MHz
- Suryan FM - Coimbatore - 93.5 MHz
- Suryan FM - Tirunelveli - 93.5 MHz
- Suryan FM - Madurai - 93.5 MHz
- Suryan FM - Tuticorin - 93.5 MHz
Telugu FM Station
Kannada FM Station
- S FM - Bangalore - 93.5 MHz
Hindi FM Station
SUN DIRECT - DTH Service
- SUN DIRECT - DTH Service
Print Media
Tamil NewsPapers
Weekly Tamil Magazine
- Kungumum
- Mutharam
- Vannathirai
- Kumguma Chimizh
Latest Results
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Awards
* CNBC "Business Excellence Award" in 2005 - Kalanithi Maran, CMD, SunTV Network
* Outstanding Businessman Award in the Entertainment and Information Sector in 2004 - Kalanithi Maran, CMD, SunTV Network
* World's Young Achiever For Creativity in 1999 - Kalanithi Maran, CMD, SunTV Network
*India's Best Entrepreneur Award In 1999 – Kalanithi Maran, CMD, SunTV Network
* Indian Televison Academy award for the best Tamil TV Channel for the year 2001- Sun TV
* Indian Televison Academy award for the best Malayalam TV Channel for the year 2001- Surya TV
* Indian Televison Academy award for the best Kannada TV Channel for the year 2001- Udaya TV
* Indian Televison Academy award for the best Telugu TV Channel for the year 2001- Gemini TV
Recent News
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India's second largest media network has entered the DTH space. The Sun Group offers DTH services at just Rs 75 a month, besides a Rs 1,000 installation fee. That's because it's up against some serious competition
Vikram Kaushik, MD, Tata Sky said, "The south of India accounts for 40% of the pay-TV market in India, but we have also sold in other parts of the country where people are price conscious and want regional content and we have been very successful in those markets."
The two big players offering DTH services are Tata Sky and Essel Group's Dish TV. Besides companies like Reliance, Bharti Airtel and Videocon are waiting in the wings.
Industry estimates show DTH is expected to have about 15 million subscribers by 2011 and the market is expected to grow from USD 1.5 to 3.5 billion.
Although Sun's DTH scheme seems attractive, it has not pleased everybody. For one, it offers mainly regional channels. For another, cable operators in the state seem to be miffed because they fear Sun might convert customers to DTH. Sources say Sun might even wind up its own cable network, SCV, once its DTH service gains ground
The Sun group seems to be a step ahead of its competitors. While the state government plans to start its own cable operation, Sun has launched DTH, which is expected to be a big revolution in the pay-TV league.
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Hidden Gem and Multibagger: Ennore Coke Limited
Ennore Coke Limited
BSE:512369
CMP : Rs. 20.40 as on 5th Oct. 2007
TARGET: Rs. 80 in 18 months
Website: www.ennorecoke.com
ABOUT THE COMPANY
This company was incorporated as a public limited company on February 25, 1985 to carry out business of yarn, cloth, fibre and the business of leasing of moveable and immoveable properties. These activities were carried out till September 30, 2005.
Effective December 5, 2005 the controlling interest of the company was taken over by Shriram EPC Ltd., and Mrs. Vatsala Ranganathan. The new management has discontinued the above businesses of the company and has now entered the business of manufacturing met coke by purchasing the Coke Project from EPCPL situated at Haldia, West Bengal.
Ennore Coke Limited also plans to set up a power plant at the same location for generating 6 MW of power by utilizing the waste heat generated from the process of manufacturing met coke.
The company has also proposed to expand the manufacturing capacity of the Proposed Coke Project from 100,000 TPA to 300,000 TPA and increasing the capacity of generation of power from 6 MW to 18 MW at Haldia, West Bengal.
Some Other Data
Sector Analysis
A. COKE INDUSTRY
Coke, a derivative of metallurgical coking coal, plays a very significant role in metallurgical processes. Coke is the main source of heat and is also the reducing agent required to facilitate the conversion of metallurgical ores into metal in the smelting process. Major Coke production has traditionally been captive, i.e. Coke is produced in the coke oven batteries of integrated steel plants. Hardly any surplus coke is available from these captive coke oven batteries for outside sale. During the last 10-12 years, numbers of pig iron plants and even integrated steel plants have been built in India without captive coke making facilities, which now rely on imported coke. As a result, India is now importing coke in sizeable quantity. Most Indian coke oven batteries are located in the eastern region of the country. As a result, the various coke consumers in the western region and southern region of the country essentially import coke.
Keeping in view the above scenario in mind, ECL is now to engaged in Manufacturing of Met Coke and for this purpose has entered into an agreement on May 15, 2006 for purchase of Nonrecovery Coke Oven Project of 1,00,000 TPA of met coke at Haldia, West Bengal which is at present under implementation and being set up by Ennore Power & Coke Pvt. Ltd. (EPCPL). The requirement of funds for purchase of aforesaid met coke project of EPCPL is met out of the proceeds of the rights issue.
Further ECL after purchasing the met coke project from EPCPL and after completing the said project, also proposes to expand such met coke manufacturing capacity by 2,00,000 TPA out of the proceeds of the warrants issue.
B. POWER INDUSTRY
Power is a critical infrastructure for economic development and for improving the quality of life. The achievement of increasing installed power capacity from 1362 MW to over 100,000 MW since independence and electrification of more than 500,000 villages and towns are impressive in absolute terms. On account of inadequate generation capacity, the country is plagued by power shortages. The total energy shortage, during 2004-2005, was 43,258 million units, amounting to 7.3 % and the peak shortage was 11.7% per cent of peak demand. With increasing urbanization, industrial growth and per capita consumption, the gap between the actual demand and supply is likely to increase. In this scenario, the GOI expects that alternative/renewable sources of energy, such as wind energy, biomass energy and energy generated through waste heat recovery process are likely to play an increasingly important role in bridging the demand supply gap and conservation of fossil fuels.
In the manufacturing process of coke, volatile matter gets released from the raw coal in the form of gas and is burnt in the oven to produce heat for carbonization and after completing the process of carbonization the waste heat at very high temperature is released in the atmosphere. Such waste heat if utilized for generation of steam, same can be used in the steam turbine for generation of power at a very low cost and in an eco-friendly manner, as no raw material or any other fossil fuel is used in this process of generation of power.
With this view in mind, ECL proposes to set up a power plant of 6 MW capacity by using waste heat generated in the process of manufacturing of met coke in the premises of Met Coke project. The power project is financed out of the proceeds of the rights issue. Further, ECL has also purchased from EPCPL the Met coke project that is under implementation and at the time of expanding its capacity by 2,00,000 TPA, it would also expand the power plant capacity by 12 MW which will be financed out of the proceeds of the warrants issue.
Shristi infrastructure-New update about the company
I recently had an interaction with Shristi infrastructure management.Here is that Q&A telcon with them.
1)When wud the scrip relist?
Ans)WITHIN 15-20 DAYS OF 29-SEPT-07
2)Whats the base price price that has been fixed by the merchant banker?It got delisted at 90rs….so if u adjust it according to the share ratio it comes at 450,rite?
Ans)BASE PRICE AROUND Rs. 450,F.V. Rs.10 fully paid up shares
3)When is the tallest hotel of the country,the rajarhat one,that they are making,wud take customer?
Ans)IN 2 AND A HALF YEARS TIME AS THE CONSTRUCTION IS IN PROGRESS NOW.
4)Whats the update about the 500crs investment in Vietnam?
Ans)NO SUCH INVESTMENT IS MADE AS PER THE CO SECRETARY,Mr. Saptarshi Ganguly
5)What wud be their turnover and profits in 08?
Ans)ORDER BOOK OF AROUND Rs. 2700 CRS INCLUDING JVs SPVs,PROFITS EXPECTED TO BE ARND 6-7 TIMES OF THE CURRENT YEAR ENDED 31-03-2007 ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO SAY UNLESS COMPLETED BECOS WIP IS DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET.
6)Is it true that they have got some land banks outside Bengal?if yes ,whats the total land bank that they are possessing?
Ans)NO COMMENTS ON LAND BANK DEALS BECOS ERNST & YOUNG IS DOING THE VALUATION AND REPORTING ON COMPLETION ONLY WILL BE IN A POSITION TO DISCUSS THE FIGURES.
7)What is the present total order book or projects that the companys is having?i mean the total worth of them?what are the margins……?
Ans)TOTAL ORDER BOOK IS ABT 2700 CRS INCLUDING SPVS AND JVS IN VARIOUS STAGES OF COMPLETION MARGINS WILL BE HEALTHY ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS STAGE OF COMPLETION AS PER THE NATURE OF INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS.
8)What is the NAV of the company?
Ans)NAV CAN BE DISCLOSED ONLY AFETR E&Y COMPLETE THEIR STUDY AND SUBMIT THE REPORT.
9)What the shareholders can expect from the company in the coming years?Whats their vision……… ?
Ans)CO BELIEVES IN DREAMING AND MAKING IT A REALITY ..HOPEFUL TO DECLARE DIVIDENDS VERY SOON AND REWARD SHAREHOLDERS FOR THEIR FAITH AND TRUST.
Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at arunanalyst@rediffmail.com
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Hold Petronet LNG with target of Rs 150
Sastry told CNBC-TV18, "Post third quarter of last year, Petronet LNG has turned around fabulously and it has been showing tremendously good amount of good growth rates. In the recent past also the company has tied-up with RasGas of Qatar for supply of around 1.25 MMT capacity of supplies."
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Target 150
Petronet in deal with Exxon for Gorgon LNG |  |
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Gas importer Petronet LNG Ltd has signed a draft agreement with Exxon Mobil Corp to buy liquefied natural gas from Australia's Gorgon project, Petronet's chief executive said on Monday.
Prosad Dasgupta, who is also Petronet's managing director, said the two companies agreed early last month on all details but pricing, and the deal should cover purchases of 2.5 million tonnes of LNG a year for a period of 25 years.
"We are meeting them in November to discuss pricing and then in January ... Preferably by June 30, 2008, we hope to finalise the deal," Dasgupta told Reuters.
Chevron Corp holds a 50 percent stake in the project, while Exxon and Royal Dutch Shell Plc each have 25 percent.
The supply of gas from Gorgon is expected to begin from the end of 2012, Dasgupta said.
He said the LNG would be regasified at the firm's 5 million tonnes a year Kochi terminal in Kerala, expected to be commissioned by mid-2011.
Petronet has been seeking LNG to secure energy supplies as demand grows in Asia's third largest consumer.
It is also talking to Chevron about buying LNG from its share of gas from Gorgon.
Dasgupta said that delays in awarding Gorgon environmental clearance had invalidated earlier agreements between operators and prospective customers, opening the door for Petronet.
On Sept. 7, Chevron finally won environmental approval for the project from the government of Western Australia and said key Japanese customers could take minority stakes.
They include Tokyo Gas, Chubu Electric Power and Osaka Gas.
Besides buying from the spot markets, Petronet recently signed a deal to buy 1.25 million tonnes of LNG from RasGas of Qatar before the end of March 2008 with an option to extend.
RasGas is also supplying India with 5 million tonnes a year of LNG under a long-term contract and the quantity will be raised to 7.5 million tonnes a year from 2009.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Kirloskar Electric Company : The Multibagger Call
| Kirloskar Electric Compan : Reco Price Rs. 270.70 CMP: Rs.272.00 (Gain 0.48%) | |
| Improving realizations leading to margin expansion should help bottom line witness 53.3% CAGR over FY07-09E. At the current price the stock trades at around 15x and 11x FY08E and FY09E EPS of Rs 18 and Rs 24.1 respectively. We recommend BUY with a one-year price target of Rs 361. -Sharper focus on core operations to lead to revenue CAGR of 37.5% over FY07-09E Sharper focus should result in revenues growing at 37.5% CAGR over FY07-09E: Restructuring, through transfer of certain assets and liabilities to a subsidiary and relocation of manufacturing facility, helped Kirloskar Electric Company (KECL) turnaround in FY06. The company's new transformer unit in Mysore will help capitalize on robust demand expected over the next five years. We expect KECL to witness a strong CAGR of 37.5% between FY07-09E. Government and private sector capex to provide huge growth opportunities: With the government announcing huge investments for the power sector, we believe there will be strong demand for power equipments, i.e. electric motors, transformers and switchgears. Coupled with this, huge capex plans have been announced by players from the metals, cement, oil and gas, and other sectors. KECL's presence in most of these segments makes it one of the key beneficiaries of this oncoming demand. Strong demand and improved realizations to expand operating margin to 13.4%: Strong demand arising out of government and private sector capex should improve KECL's realizations. Average realizations for transformers and motors divisions, which contribute majority of the revenues, witnessed an improvement of 45.6% and 32% respectively in FY07. We believe robust demand will further improve average realizations for both these divisions. Investment rationale Restructuring should enable revenues to witness 37.5% CAGR over FY07-09E: KECL has widened its product profile to meet varied and increasing demand. In the past, the company incurred losses during FY99-05 but restructured operations and turned around at both, operational and net levels in FY06. It transferred some of the assets and liabilities to its subsidiary and relocated its manufacturing facility. KECL also upgraded and integrated all its manufacturing facilities to enhance its operational efficiencies. Its new transformer unit in Mysore will help it capitalize on robust demand for transformers. The restructuring effort should enable it witness revenue CAGR of 37.5% over FY07-09E. Electric motors and transformers division to be major drivers: KECL receives 96.2% of its revenues from electric motors (64.4%), transformers (19.8%), circuit breakers (7.2%), controls for generator sets (3%) and DG sets ( 1.8%). With an improved industrial scenario, we believe electric motor, transformers and switchgear division will be major drivers for the company. Motors and transformer divisions will together register 39.3% CAGR and switchgear division will witness 30% CAGR over FY07-09E. Electric motors division: Electric motors find application in the power, cement, sugar, steel, telecom, paper industries. Capex announced by various players in these industries provides the division an opportunity to experience strong growth going forward. Initially it was in collaboration with Brush Electric UK for technical support and other technical collaborations with NEI Peebles Electrical Machines, Scotland and AEG, Germany. These tie ups enabled it to develop high capacity motors. KECL's industrial motors gamut range from 0.12kW to 20,000kW in 63 – 1,250 frames. Transformers division: We expect 41,320MW to be added over the XIth Five Year Plan against the target of Electronics and switchgears division: This division offers process industries customized packages in motors and drives. This helps the user industries to improve productivity, save energy and reduce lead time. Major consultants such as Engineers India Ltd., M. N. Dastur & Co., Avant Garde and Entech Consultancy have approved the company's products. The product range includes DC drives in collaboration with Thorn EMI, UK, in a range The switchgears division manufactures high voltage switchgears in the range of 3.3kV – 36kV. It caters to the requirements of state electricity boards, utilities, power generation, mining, defense applications and industrial clients from cement, steel, paper, textiles, chemicals and other process utilities. Government capex over the next five years will boost demand: The government targets to add 78,869MW over the XIth Five Year Plan. However, we believe it will be able to achieve 41,320MW over the plan period. Despite lower addition there will be strong demand for motors, transformers and switchgears. The government's focus on accomplishing "Power for all by 2012" mission and rural electrification during the plan period will fuel growth for all divisions of the company. Under Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana it intends to electrify These programs will fuel demand for transformers and switchgears going forward. Better realizations and control on costs to expand OPM to 13.4%. Strong demand for all products - motors, transformers and switchgears – will help improve these divisions' realizations. With copper expected to hover around US$7,500 per ton, we believe margins for the motors division will improve going forward. The company is expected to witness an improvement in margins due to huge demand coming from state electricity boards and industrial capex announced KECL is one of India's leading electrical and power equipment manufacturers. Established in 1946, it manufactures AC motors, AC generators, DC machines, traction equipment, electronics, switchgears and transformers. The company also undertakes turnkey electrical projects. KECL has five manufacturing facilities, one each in Bangalore, Hubli, Tumkur, Govenahalli and Mysore. It also has a well-spread marketing network with 25 offices across India. Concerns |
Quarterly Results calendar for the month of October
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
IMP Powers Ltd- Long term Call
CMP-190
Target-300
Duration:9-12 months
Appreciation expected=65%+
Traded on-BSE-NSE
About the company
Major Strenghts&Weekness:-
Strengths:-
The Company is having vendor approval from almost all the State Electricity Boards, Major Turnkey contractor,consultants and it is the only transformer company in India to be in Zero Sales Tax Zone enjoying 15 year sales tax holiday.
The company topline clientele includes majors such as SIEMENS, L&T, IVRCL, Tata Power, Nagarjuna, Kalptaru, SPIC-SMO, Jyoti Structures and Reliance etc.
The company posses an impresive record of successfully conducting more than 100 Impulse tests & 50 short circuit tests on various rating transformers from 10KVAto 100MVA.
One of the major advantage of the company is manufacturing OLTC & RTCC itself, therefore, only the cost of price of the same is added to the transformer price and thus its prices are most competitive than any other manufacturer who has to add the purchase price of OLTC from other OLTC manufacturer.
WEAKNESS:
Raw Materials -The main raw materials for manufacture of transformers are copper; CRGO, transformer oil and steel stampings are all commodities and hence are subject to fluctuations in prices.,which may affect margins.
Liquidity - Liquidity is always an issue because of delay in payments by SEBs.
High debt equity ratios.
Few recent development=Very recently Funds managed and advised by Motilal Oswal Venture Capital Advisors Private Limited (MOVCAPL) have invested Rs. 190 million in IMP Powers Limited.
With the manufacturing sector growing at a phenomenal rate the demand for Electronic digital measuring & indicating instruments has already crossed over 250 Crores,the Company has just kept its footsteps to this market aiming at a major market share.
Outlook-The opportunity provided by the power transmission and distribution Industry in India is immense.The scenario for the transformer industry is very promising; given the ongoing Government Power Program till 2012.Imp power being one of the oldest player in the power equipments segment with a product portfolio of various types of transformers, industrial meters and testing equipments in the sector will definitely benefit from the huge growth potential in the segment.Moreover, it's buoyant order book position of Rs 1300 million,gives the company an excellent platform for growth.
Prospects
Conclusion=The Company has successfully turned around after a bad phase in 2000-2005.Subsequent to the turnaround, it has achieved a CAGR of about 55% in sales over last 2 years. he EBIDTA margins have improved to a current level of 16.6% for FY 07 as against a low of 4.2% in FY 05 because of growth in sales and operational efficiency.This improvement in the margins has come despite an increasing trend in the prices of core raw materials of the company like copper, Aluminium, steel, etc.At the current market price of Rs 190, the stock is available at 9.5x FY08E earnings of Rs 20, which we believe is very attractive.We expect the stock to get re-rated as it starts delivering strong growth numbers over the next few quarters.The stock is currently traded at over 15x FY2007 earnings. We maintain BUY on the stock with target price of Rs.300 for the stock, at 15x FY2008E earnings.It would be prudent to note that,There can be further scope for an upward revision in these estimates given the company's ability to win large projects.
Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at arunanalyst@rediffmail.com
Monday, October 1, 2007
Futura Polyesters Ltd - Long Term Investment
Scripscan-Futura Polyesters Ltd
CMP-32
Bse code-500720
Introduction-Futura polysters is a complicated story but looks to have immense value.Its going to be a huge note if i have to explain everything in details.But as i say get your logic right behind a story.Get the full story fully and have your conviction.Your patience may get tested but conviction would be rewarded.
Why would you invest in futura polysters?Just consider.
1)Futura polystersis engaged in the BUSINESS OF manufacturING and marketing of Polyester Resins, PET Preforms and Polyester Fibres.Futura is the largest PET Preform manufacturer in India with a turnover of over 500crs.
2)The company has got a land of around 85 acres in khapoli,considering the real estate prices now,the value for the same looks to be huge.
3)Futura's subsidiary Innovassynth has 26%
stake in Actis Biologics valued at over 180crs.The value should be much higher when the comopany goes public.
4)Innovassynth itself is going to list soon and you would be alloted 5 shares of the company for every 11 shares held in futura polysters.
So by investing in futura you would actually get to invest in a profitable 500crs turnover company and its the leader in its segment too.You would get innovasnth which may just do wonders after listing.You would also get actis bio too.Innovassynth is into avery hot sector, a leader in Customised Research, Analysis, Manufacturing and Synthesis(CRAMS) and Actis Biologics India (ABPL) is an emerging biotech company valued at around 700crs.
Conclusion-In very short you would get 3 great emerging businesses by investing in these comopany.At rs 32 it looks to be a scrip with tremendous value.Go for it.
Regards,
ARUN
i can be reached at-arunanlyst@rediffmail.com
New Listing Info
Pяąđ٤٤¶™ JΘђŋ.®
New Listing Infos Check Here........!
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Listing Date: Monday, September 24, 2007
BSE Script Code: 500162
NSE Symbol:
Listing in: B1 Group
ISIN: INE353B01021
Base Price: Rs.172 (Face Value Rs.10/-)
Price Band: 20%
Pяąđ٤٤¶™ JΘђŋ.®
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Listing Date: Tuesday, September 25, 2007
BSE Script Code: 507525
NSE Symbol:
Listing in: S Group
ISIN: INE866E01026
Base Price: Rs.62 (Face Value Rs.10/-)
Price Band: 20%
Pяąđ٤٤¶™ JΘђŋ.®
GMR Industries hit 20% circuit today...
Pяąđ٤٤¶™ JΘђŋ.®
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Listing Date: Monday, October 01, 2007
BSE Script Code: 505426
NSE Symbol:
Listing in: B2 Group
ISIN:
Issue Price: Rs 45/- (Face Value: Rs 10/- )
Pяąđ٤٤¶™ JΘђŋ.®
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Listing Date: Wednesday, October 03, 2007
BSE Script Code: 531728
NSE Symbol:
Listing in: B2 Group
ISIN: INE221G01029
Base Price: - (Face Value Rs.10/-)
Price Band:
Pяąđ٤٤¶™ JΘђŋ.®
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IPO Listing Date: Friday, October 5, 2007
BSE Script Code: 532898
NSE Symbol: POWERGRID
Listing in: A Group
ISIN: INE752E01010
Issue Price: Rs 52/- Per Equity Share (Face Value : Rs 10/-)
Online demat & trading account - Discussion
भूपेश BHUPESH
on line demat & trading account
Can any body which account among the also the banks ( like ICICI, HDFC.......... etc.) is good for demat purpose & having the lowest online trading charges along with good
securities.
Bye,
diva
Prashant
...i don't know about HDFC. 
DiGital
I am looking for another brokerage which will let me trade real cheap and is reliable?
Any clues ?
Impossible
suggestion
Gangadhar Reddy
I am using sharekhan a/c for trading
its ok for general trade
i think its not good for daily trade
correct me if i am wrong
and how we have to do daily trade in sharekhan?
♥ ♥ Arun
for traders indiabulls is best and now days i am using ALmondz which is good too
SP Tulsian - Not a Great Analyst......!
Pяąđ٤٤¶™ JΘђŋ.®
SP Tulsian - Not a Great Analyst......!
================================
September 19th:
-----------------------------
ganto_sai: what is the future prospects of jai corp.can i buy now or can i buy after split.is it worth buying at this rate.if yes what will be the target if i hold for 2 years from now.?
SP Tulsian: in 2 years share can touch 25000.now u choose when to buy
Source:
http://news.moneycontrol.com/news/mgmtinterviews/chats/detail_new.php?filename=2007-09-19-16-00.txt
August 29th
------------------------
Rohit.Kumar: Hi SPT, Can u comment on Jai Corp? Will it become a multibagger in future with it?s co-participation (with RIL) in SEZz, infrastructure and Rewas Port ?
SP Tulsian: can b a truly multibagger with potential to rise by 5 to 8 times in 5 years
Source:
http://news.moneycontrol.com/news/mgmtinterviews/chats/detail_new.php?filename=2007-08-29-00-00.txt
Wat he said for Jai Corp in his website on October 1st
================================
Query by ,
Mihir Maniar: I read a lot about Jai Corp and it is being recommended by you too... is it still a good price to enter? What is the upside remaining ?
SP Tulsian: Look for RIIL now instead of Jai Corp.
source:
----------
http://www.premiuminvestments.in/stock-query.php?page=2
He says Jai Corp is a Multibagger.....and now within 14 days he says everyone to switch to RIIL
Pentasoft - Analysis Section
deepak
Buy pentasoft
6 month target is rs.8. the company is going to devlope multyplexes in madhrai & kodambakkam. and also opening a educational institute in chennia in the area of 100000 acres. also devloping a golf course .
so my recomandation on this stock is bye & hold atlist 6 month
u will earn money
Prashant
santosh
bought 10000 shares before two yrs back @ 5.65 and again sold @ 1.45.in feb.2007.
Please keep distance to save your hard earned money.
Ramesh Sharma
Multiple Time Frame
| When deciding on a trade or investment, be it short, intermediate or long term, multiple time frame analysis can help clear the noise and offer a balanced view.
Now look at the chart below of the same security. This is a chart of one time frame higher than the one above. What does it tell you? Simply, that the long term trend is bullish, and I should be looking to go long rather than short.
To make our trading signals more accurate and to provide you with the edge in trading our analysis which goes into each of our newsletter services incorporates not one but all three time frames. By incorporating the multiple time frame trading method in our newsletter services, you as our subscribers will take only those trades with the most profitable potential and to stay out situations where there is marginal or least profitable potential. |
An Introduction to Japanese Candlestick Charting
An Introduction to Japanese Candlestick Charting
By Erik Gebhard
Introduction…a New Way to Look at Prices
Would you like to learn about a type of commodity futures price chart that is more effective than the type you are probably using now? If so, keep reading. If you are brand new to the art/science of chart reading, don't worry, this stuff is really quite simple to learn.
Technical Analysis…a Brief Background
Technical analysis is simply the study of prices as reflected on price charts. Technical analysis assumes that current prices should represent all known information about the markets. Prices not only reflect intrinsic facts, they also represent human emotion and the pervasive mass psychology and mood of the moment. Prices are, in the end, a function of supply and demand. However, on a moment to moment basis, human emotions…fear, greed, panic, hysteria, elation, etc. also dramatically effect prices. Markets may move based upon people's expectations, not necessarily facts. A market "technician" attempts to disregard the emotional component of trading by making his decisions based upon chart formations, assuming that prices reflect both facts and emotion.
Standard bar charts are commonly used to convey price activity into an easily readable chart. Usually four elements make up a bar chart, the Open, High, Low, and Close for the trading session/time period. A price bar can represent any time frame the user wishes, from 1 minute to 1 month. The total vertical length/height of the bar represents the entire trading range for the period. The top of the bar represents the highest price of the period, and the bottom of the bar represents the lowest price of the period. The Open is represented by a small dash to the left of the bar, and the Close for the session is a small dash to the right of the bar. Below is a standard bar chart example.
Candlestick Charts Explained
You may be asking yourself, "If I can already use bar charts to view prices, then why do I need another type of chart?"
The answer to this question may not seem obvious, but after going through the following candlestick chart explanations and examples, you will surely see value in the different perspective candlesticks bring to the table. In my opinion, they are much more visually appealing, and convey the price information in a quicker, easier manner.
What is the History of Candlestick Charts?
Candlestick charts are on record as being the oldest type of charts used for price prediction. They date back to the 1700's, when they were used for predicting rice prices. In fact, during this era in Japan, Munehisa Homma become a legendary rice trader and gained a huge fortune using candlestick analysis. He is said to have executed over 100 consecutive winning trades!
The candlesticks themselves and the formations they shape were give colorful names by the Japanese traders. Due in part to the military environment of the Japanese feudal system during this era, candlestick formations developed names such as "counter attack lines" and the "advancing three soldiers". Just as skill, strategy, and psychology are important in battle, so too are they important elements when in the midst of trading battle.
What do Candlesticks Look Like?
Candlestick charts are much more visually appealing than a standard two-dimensional bar chart. As in a standard bar chart, there are four elements necessary to construct a candlestick chart, the OPEN, HIGH, LOW and CLOSING price for a given time period. Below are examples of candlesticks and a definition for each candlestick component:
- The body of the candlestick is called the real body, and represents the range between the open and closing prices.
- A black or filled-in body represents that the close during that time period was lower than the open, (normally considered bearish) and when the body is open or white, that means the close was higher than the open (normally bullish).
- The thin vertical line above and/or below the real body is called the upper/lower shadow, representing the high/low price extremes for the period.
Bar Compared to Candlestick Charts
Below is an example of the same price data conveyed in a standard bar chart and a candlestick chart. Notice how the candlestick chart appears 3-dimensional, as price data almost jumps out at you.
( 3a ) ( 3b ) The long, dark, filled-in real bodies represent a weak (bearish) close ( 3a ), while a long open, light-colored real body represents a strong (bullish) close ( 3b ). It is important to note that Japanese candlestick analysts traditionally view the open and closing prices as the most critical of the day. At a glance, notice how much easier it is with candlesticks to determine if the closing price was higher or lower than the opening price.
Common Candlestick Terminology
The following is a list of some individual candlestick terms. It is important to realize that many formations occur within the context of prior candlesticks. What follows is merely a definition of terms, not formations.
- The Black Candlestick -- when the close is lower than the open.
- The White Candlestick -- when the close is higher than the open.
- The Shaven Head -- a candlestick with no upper shadow.
- The Shaven Bottom -- a candlestick with no lower shadow.
- Spinning Tops -- candlesticks with small real bodies, and when appearing within a sideways choppy market, they represent equilibrium between the bulls and the bears. They can be either white or black.
- Doji Lines -- have no real body, but instead have a horizontal line. This represents when the Open and Close are the same or very close. The length of the shadow can vary.
Candlestick Reversal Patterns
Just as many traders look to bar charts for double tops and bottoms, head-and-shoulders, and technical indicators for reversal signals, so too can candlestick formations be looked upon for the same purpose. A reversal does not always mean that the current uptrend/downtrend will reverse direction, but merely that the current direction may end. The market may then decide to drift sideways. Candlestick reversal patterns must be viewed within the context of prior activity to be effective. In fact, identical candlesticks may have different meanings depending on where they occur within the context of prior trends and formations.
- Hammer -- a candlestick with a long lower shadow and small real body. The shadow should be at least twice the length of the real body, and there should be no or very little upper shadow . The body may be either black or white, but the key is that this candlestick must occur within the context of a downtrend to be considered a hammer. The market may be "hammering" out a bottom.
- Hanging Man -- identical in appearance to the hammer, but appears within the context of an uptrend.
- Engulfing Patterns -- Bullish -- when a white, real body totally covers, "engulfs" the prior day's real body. The market should be in a definable trend, not chopping around sideways. The shadows of the prior candlestick do not need to be engulfed.
Bearish -- when a black, real body totally covers, "engulfs" the prior day's real body. The market should be in a definable trend, not chopping around sideways. The shadows of the prior candlestick do not need to be engulfed.
- Dark-Cloud Cover(bearish) -- a top reversal formation where the first day of the pattern consists of a strong white, real body. The second day's price opens above the top of the upper shadow of the prior candlestick, but the close is at or near the low of the day, and well into the prior white, real body.
Piercing Pattern (bullish) -- opposite of the dark-cloud cover. Occurs within a downtrend. The first candlestick having a black, real body, and the second has a long, white, real body. The white day opens sharply lower, under the low of the prior black day. Then, prices close above the 50% point of the prior day's black real body.
Stars
These candlestick formations consist of a small real body that gaps away from the real body preceding it. The real body of the star should not overlap the prior real body. The color of the star is not too important, and they can occur at either tops or bottoms. Stars are the equivalent of gaps on standard bar charts.
Stars make up part of four separate reversal patterns:
Morning Star
Evening Star
Doji Star
Shooting Star (Inverted Hammer)
- Morning Star -- this is a bullish bottom reversal pattern. The formation is comprised of 3 candlesticks. The first candlestick is a tall black real body followed by the second, a small real body, which gaps (opens), lower (a star pattern). The third candlestick is a white real body that moves well into the first period's black real body. This is similar to an island pattern on standard bar charts.
- Evening Star -- a bearish top reversal pattern and counterpart to the Morning Star. Three candlesticks compose the evening star, the first being long and white. The second forms a star, followed by the third, which has a black real body that moves sharply into the first white candlestick.
- Doji Stars -- When a doji gaps above a real body in an uptrend, or gaps under a real body in a falling market, that particular doji is called a doji star. Two popular doji stars are the evening star and the morning star.
- Evening Doji Star -- a doji star in an uptrend followed by a long, black real body that closed well into the prior white real body. If the candlestick after the doji star is white and gapped higher, the bearishness of the doji is invalidated.
- Morning Doji Star -- a doji star in a downtrend followed by a long, white real body that closes well into the prior black real body. If the candlestick after the doji star is black and gapped lower, the bullishness of the doji is invalidated.
- Shooting Star -- a small real body near the lower end of the trading range, with a long upper shadow. The color of the body is not critical. Not usually considered a major reversal sign, only a warning.
Final Thoughts and Credits
It is important to realize that this introduction is just that, an introduction to candlestick analysis. After having read this, you will have merely scratched the surface of the many patterns and variables that can go into candlestick analysis. No attempt was made to provide a thorough analysis of each and every pattern. In fact, many formations were left out as they cross the border into more complicated analysis. For a more complete overview of candlestick analysis, it is highly recommended that you read the book that is referred to below.
A large portion of the material in this introduction is taken from an excellent book called Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: A Contemporary Guide to the Ancient Investment Techniques of the Far East. In some cases, sentences were taken almost verbatim, as there was no better way to say what Mr. Steve Nison, the author, already said. In his book, Mr. Nison, completely explains candlesticks and their formations, but more importantly explains how to combine candlestick analysis with traditional technical analysis. It is highly recommended that you consider purchasing this book.
As traders, we need as many trading tools in our arsenal, and a basic knowledge of candlesticks provides a trader much needed ammunition. Also remember that no matter what the trading tool, no matter how advanced or ancient, it is only effective when put into practice properly. This is, of course, your job as the trader.
Regards,
Erik L. Gebhard
ALTAVEST Worldwide Trading, Inc.Japanese candle stick candlestick charting method pattern
Basics of Technical Analysis
New to Trading and Technical Analysis? Learn the Basics of Technical Analysis of Indian Stocks and Stock Market Trend Stock Charts and Trends.
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New to Trading and Technical Analysis? Learn the Basics of Technical Analysis of Indian Stocks and Stock Market Trend Stock Charts and Trends.
Dow Theory
The ideas of Charles Dow, the first editor of the Wall Street Journal, form the basis of technical analysis today.
Dow created the Industrial Average, of top blue chip stocks, and a second average of top railroad stocks (now the Transport Average). He believed that the behavior of the averages reflected the hopes and fears of the entire market. The behavior patterns that he observed apply to markets throughout the world.
Dow Theory
Three Movements
Markets fluctuate in more than one time frame at the same time:
Nothing is more certain than that the market has three well defined movements which fit into each other.
- The first is the daily variation due to local causes and the balance of buying and selling at that particular time (Ripple).
- The secondary movement covers a period ranging from days to weeks, averaging probably between six to eight weeks (Wave).
- The third move is the great swing covering anything from months to years, averaging between 6 to 48 months. (Tide).
- Bull markets are broad upward movements of the market that may last several years, interrupted by secondary reactions. Bear markets are long declines interrupted by secondary rallies. These movements are referred to as the primary trend.
- Secondary movements normally retrace from one third to two thirds of the primary trend since the previous secondary movement.
- Daily fluctuations are important for short-term trading, but are unimportant in analysis of broad market movements.
Various cycles have subsequently been identified within these broad categories.
Dow Theory
Primary Movements have Three Phases
Look out for these general conditions in the market:
Bull markets
- Bull markets commence with reviving confidence as business conditions improve.
- Prices rise as the market responds to improved earnings
- Rampant speculation dominates the market and price advances are based on hopes and expectations rather than actual results.
Bear markets
- Bear markets start with abandonment of the hopes and expectations that sustained inflated prices.
- Prices decline in response to disappointing earnings.
- Distress selling follows as speculators attempt to close out their positions and securities are sold without regard to their true value.
Ranging Markets
- A secondary reaction may take the form of a 'line' which may endure for several weeks.
- Price fluctuates within a narrow range of about five per cent.
Breakouts from a range can occur in either direction.
- Advances above the upper limit of the line signal accumulation and higher prices;
- Declines below the lower limit indicate distribution and lower prices;
- Volume is used to confirm price breakouts.
Dow Theory
Trends
Bull Trends
A bull trend is identified by a series of rallies where each rally exceeds the highest point of the previous rally. The decline, between rallies, ends above the lowest point of the previous decline.
Successive higher highs and higher lows.
The start of an up trend is signaled when price makes a higher low (trough), followed by a rally above the previous high (peak):
Start = higher Low + break above previous High.
The end is signaled by a lower high (peak), followed by a decline below the previous low (trough):
End = lower High + break below previous Low.
What if the series of higher Highs and higher Lows is first broken by a lower Low? There are two possible interpretations - see Large Corrections.
Bear Trends
Each successive rally fails to penetrate the high point of the previous rally. Each decline terminates at a lower point than the preceding decline.
Successive lower highs and lower lows.
A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend: when a rally ends with a lower peak and then retreats below the previous low. The end of a bear trend is identical to the start of a bull trend.
What if the series of lower Highs and lower Lows is first broken by a higher High? This is a gray area - see Large Corrections.
Dow Theory
Large Corrections
A large correction occurs when price falls below the previous low (during a bull trend) or where price rises above the previous high (in a bear trend).
Some purists argue that a trend ends if the sequence of higher highs and higher lows is broken. Others argue that a bear trend has not started until there is a lower High and Low nor has a bull trend started until there is a higher Low and High.
For practical purposes: Only accept large corrections as trend changes in the primary trend:
- A bull trend starts when price rallies above the previous high,
- A bull trend ends when price declines below the previous low,
- A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend (and vice versa).
Elliott Waves Theory Basics
| About Elliott Waves Theory Basics The Elliott Wave Theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout nature, Elliott concluded that the movement of the stock market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. In fact, Elliott believed that all of man's activities, not just the stock market, were influenced by these identifiable series of waves. Elliott based part his work on the Dow Theory, which also defines price movement in terms of waves, but Elliott discovered the fractal nature of market action. Thus Elliott was able to analyze markets in greater depth, identifying the specific characteristics of wave patterns and making detailed market predictions based on the patterns he had identified. Definition of Elliott WavesIn the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott found that the markets exhibited certain repeated patterns. His primary research was with stock market data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This research identified patterns or waves that recur in the markets. Very simply, in the direction of the trend, expect five waves. Any corrections against the trend are in three waves. Three wave corrections are lettered as "a, b, c." These patterns can be seen in long-term as well as in short-term charts. Ideally, smaller patterns can be identified within bigger patterns. In this sense, Elliott Waves are like a piece of broccoli, where the smaller piece, if broken off from the bigger piece, does, in fact, look like the big piece. This information (about smaller patterns fitting into bigger patterns), coupled with the Fibonacci relationships between the waves, offers the trader a level of anticipation and/or prediction when searching for and identifying trading opportunities with solid reward/risk ratios. There have been many theories about the origin and the meaning of the patterns that Elliott discovered, including human behavior and harmony in nature. These rules, though, as applied to technical analysis of the markets (stocks, commodities, futures, etc.), can be very useful regardless of their meaning and origin. Simplifying Elliott Wave Analysis When the analysis is not clear, why not find another market conforming to an Elliott Wave pattern that is easier to identify? From years of fighting this battle, we have come up with the following practical approach to using Elliott Wave principles in trading. The whole theory of Elliott Wave can be classified into two parts:
Elliott Wave Basics — Impulse Patterns
The initial stages of the Wave 3 rally are slow, and it finally makes it to the top of the previous rally (the top of Wave 1). At this time, there are a lot of stops above the top of Wave 1.
Traders are not convinced of the upward trend and are using this rally to add more shorts. For their analysis to be correct, the market should not take the top of the previous rally. Therefore, many stops are placed above the top of Wave 1.
The next sequence of events are as follows: Traders who were initially long from the bottom finally have something to cheer about. They might even decide to add positions.
This is the time when the majority of the traders have decided that the trend is up. Finally, all the buying frenzy dies down; Wave 3 comes to a halt. Profit taking now begins to set in. Traders who were long from the lows decide to take profits. They have a good trade and start to protect profits.This causes a pullback in the prices that is called Wave 4. Wave 2 was a vicious sell-off; Wave 4 is an orderly profit-taking decline. While profit-taking is in progress, the majority of traders are still convinced the trend is up. They were either late in getting in on this rally, or they have been on the sideline. They consider this profit-taking decline an excellent place to buy in and get even.
On the end of Wave 4, more buying sets in and the prices start to rally again. The Wave 5 rally lacks the huge enthusiasm and strength found in the Wave 3 rally. The Wave 5 advance is caused by a small group of traders. Although the prices make a new high above the top of Wave 3, the rate of power, or strength, inside the Wave 5 advance is very small when compared to the Wave 3 advance. Finally, when this lackluster buying interest dies out, the market tops out and enters a new phase.
An impulse pattern consists of five waves. With the exception of the triangle, corrective patterns consist of 3 waves. An impulse pattern is always followed by a corrective pattern. Corrective patterns can be grouped into two different categories:
Simple Correction (Zig-Zag) Fibonacci Ratios inside a Zig-Zag Correction
A simple correction is commonly called a Zig-Zag correction.
Complex Corrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle)
Flat Correction
Irregular Correction
Triangle Correction
Alteration Rule |
The first wave is usually a weak rally with only a small percentage of the traders participating. Once Wave 1 is over, they sell the market on Wave 2. The sell-off in Wave 2 is very vicious. Wave 2 will finally end without making new lows and the market will start to turn around for another rally. 
The Wave 3 rally picks up steam and takes the top of Wave 1. As soon as the Wave 1 high is exceeded, the stops are taken out. Depending on the number of stops, gaps are left open. Gaps are a good indication of a Wave 3 in progress. After taking the stops out, the Wave 3 rally has caught the attention of traders. 
The traders who were stopped out (after being upset for a while) decide the trend is up, and they decide to buy into the rally. All this sudden interest fuels the Wave 3 rally. 
There is only one pattern in a simple correction. This pattern is called a Zig-Zag correction. A Zig-Zag correction is a three-wave pattern where the Wave B does not retrace more than 75 percent of Wave A. Wave C will make new lows below the end of Wave A. The Wave A of a Zig-Zag correction always has a five-wave pattern. In the other two types of corrections (Flat and Irregular), Wave A has a three-wave pattern. Thus, if you can identify a five-wave pattern inside Wave A of any correction, you can then expect the correction to turn out as a Zig-Zag formation. 
Triangles, by far, most commonly occur as fourth waves. One can sometimes see a triangle as the Wave B of a three-wave correction. Triangles are very tricky and confusing. One must study the pattern very carefully prior to taking action. Prices tend to shoot out of the triangle formation in a swift thrust. 
When triangles occur in the fourth wave, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as Wave 3. When triangles occur in Wave Bs, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as the Wave A.
Cheap stocks may prove costly
This ratio decreases as we move towards higher Re-price stocks. The chart above captures this trend perfectly. As we move from left to right on the graph, the stock prices increase and so do the number of stocks that are still in existence.
69% of all the shares trading between Rs10-20 in September 1994 disappeared from the market by September 1999. Things start looking up somewhat in the Rs20-50 range, with the proportion of 'wastepaper' coming down to 38%.
- Prices in the month of September 1999 for these companies have been used.
- The prices of the companies that did not trade even once in September 1999 are assumed as zero.
- All the stock splits and bonuses have been adjusted.
Returns over September 1994-99
| Price Range | Positive Return | Negative Return | ||
| No. of Cos. | % | No. of Cos. | % | |
| <= 10 | 17 | 2.34 | 710 | 97.66 |
| 10 to 20 | 25 | 2.59 | 940 | 97.41 |
| 20 to 50 | 47 | 9.79 | 433 | 90.21 |
| 50 to 100 | 33 | 8.68 | 347 | 91.32 |
| 100 to 250 | 65 | 41.67 | 91 | 58.33 |
| 250 to 500 | 42 | 26.92 | 114 | 73.08 |
| 500 + | 16 | 22.54 | 55 | 77.46 |
In case of sub-Par shares, only 17 out of 392 shares provided a positive returns. On the other in 375 (about 96%) companies, investors could not recover even the principal!
The scenario worsens in the Rs10-20 category, where only 3% of the stocks gave positive returns. Even shares trading in the Rs20-50 range didn't fare much better-only 5% of them posted positive returns. In comparison, investors who purchased stocks trading between Rs250-500 in September 1994 were better off-27% of these provided positive returns. And nearly 23% of the stocks trading over Rs 500 were in positive territory in September 1999.
Guess what? He's right!
Our analysis reveals that the sub-Par (i.e. below Rs10) stocks of September 1994 which managed to survive until September 1999 actually delivered the highest returns among all categories!!
- The stocks have divided into 7 categories on the basis of their prices in September 1994, namely sub-10, 10-20. 20-50, 50-100, 100-250, 250-500, and 500+.
- The percentage existence of the stocks in September 1999 has been calculated on the basis of whether they traded in that month.
- Percentage returns of all stocks have been calculated over a five-year horizon (September 1994 to September 1999).
| Price Range | Overall % Return | Traded Co. % Return |
| < = 10 | -70.63 | 90.37 |
| 10 To 20 | -81.31 | -43.61 |
| 20 To 50 | -68.04 | -48.73 |
| 50 To 100 | -64.80 | -58.28 |
| 100 To 250 | -16.93 | -12.45 |
| 250 To 500 | -11.31 | -8.37 |
| 500 + | -11.78 | -11.78 |
But before you jump to any conclusions, look closer.
There are only 9 such companies in a list of 392. If Mahesh had picked any of the other 383, he would have lived to regret it. A rupee invested in that category of shares would have shrunk to 30paise in September 1999. Only 2.3% of sub-Rs10 shares doubled in the five-year period, while 85% of them vanished into thin air. Clearly, Mahesh's chances of doubling his money were very low; he was much more likely to have lost all his money.
In other words, upside ki baat chodo, poore 7 rupye doob jaate.
Suresh's investment strategy is in sharp contrast to Mahesh's-he invests only in stocks that he is fundamentally attracted to. Not due to their rupee prices, but because he finds them attractively valued based on ratios such as P/e. PEG, RONW etc. Let us also assume that most of these companies traded at over Rs100 in 1994. How would he have fared over this 5-year period?
Well, Suresh would have also lost money, but he would have been better off than Mahesh. Suresh would have lost a maximum of 17% in the Rs100-250 category as and as low as 11.78% only in the above Rs500 category.
One out of every 10 stocks in the Rs100+ segment (or 57 of the 607 stocks) at least doubled over the five-year period. On the downside, 24 shares in this list disappeared altogether. Therefore, if he had picked his stocks wisely, Suresh had a better chance of doubling his money.
So, what is the best way to avoid to this? That should also be clear after the above analysis. Look for companies with sound fundamentals. And focus on returns-whether the stock has a low Re-price or a high Re-price is immaterial.
Let us learn from the past and start channeling our money in the right direction. Happy investing.
Ivesting Tips : Why read an annual report?
The Notes to the Accounts contain some fine print that is well worth studying. For instance, the notes to Reliance Industries' accounts point out that inter-divisional sales of Rs3929cr are included in the company's sales figure. Inter-divisional transfers are sales between one division of the company to another. This amount, therefore, should not be included in the total sales figure. Or take another example. The Notes point out that RIL has changed its method of depreciation, with the result that the profit for the year has been understated. So if you didn't look at the Notes, you could be misled.
Also included is quantitative information such as installed capacity, its utilisation, volumes sold etc. This will enable you to find out whether an increase in sales, for example, is due merely to higher prices, or to increase in volume of goods sold. Since the quantities of products produced are given, you will be able to get information about the trends in volumes of the different products.
Spare a glance at the figures for imports and the foreign exchange earned. That'll enable you to gauge the impact, for instance, of a depreciation in the currency.
The cash generated from operations is an important indicator. If that figure is negative, it means that cash is being sourced from external sources to fund existing operations. That's certainly not sustainable in the long run.
Power of compounding
- Benjamin Franklin
"Compound interest is the world's greatest discovery"
- Albert Einstein
"In case you earn Rs20,000 per month, do you know how many years it will take for you to become a Crorepati? Not 10 or 20, but 50 years!" exclaims Amitabh Bachchan, the anchor for "Kaun Banega Crorepati".
Mr Bachchan, did you know that if you invest just Rs9,250 once and earn 15% per annum on this investment then, in 50 years you will be a 'Crorepati' too!
And in case you invest Rs20,000 every month for 50 years under similar terms, you will be worth more than (hold your breath) Rs173cr! That is Crorepati 173 times over!!!
So, how does money compound?
When you invest money, it earns interest (or returns, if you may). If you keep the interest invested, then it does not sit idle while only the original investment sweats it out. The interest earns interest too! And then the interest on interest earns interest again!
That is the beauty of compounding. That is what made great men like Albert Einstein and Benjamin Franklin extol the virtues of 'compounding'.
On her 10th birthday, Ms Thrifty's father gave her Rs100. She wisely invested the money that earned her an interest of 15% every year.
Mr Realist won Rs200 as prize money when he was 16 years old. His friend, Ms Thrifty, advised him to invest his prize similarly.
When Ms Follower earned her first salary at the age of 21, she salted away Rs400 in the same investment.
After reaching the age of 60, all three decide to withdraw their investments. Who do you think realised the most from his/her investment?
You think it's Ms Follower, right? After all, she invested four times the money that Ms Thrifty had invested. So what if she invested the money 10 years later. She did earn interest for 40 years anyway after that.
But think again. Ms Thrifty makes the most out of her investment! In fact, her Rs100 is worth Rs1,08,366. On the other hand, Ms Follower's Rs400 is worth Rs93,169!
Let us try another small exercise.
Let us assume Ms Thrifty, Mr Realist and Ms Follower invest Rs100 for 10 years. However, all three of them earn interest at different rates. Ms Thrifty earns 20% while Mr Realist earns 15% and Ms Follower manages a 10% interest rate.
Can you work out what each one of them will have ten years hence?
Ms Thrifty will have Rs619 while Mr Realist, Rs405. Ms Follower will have the least - Rs259 in ten years. Did you notice something though? While the interest rates differ by just 5%, in 10 years the worth of the original capital, Rs100 was vastly different!
The 'Rule of 72' is an easy way to find out in how many years your money will double at a given interest rate. Lost?
Suppose the interest rate is 15%, then your money will double in 72/15= 4.8 years. In case, the interest rate is 20%, then the money will double in 3.6 years.
Interesting rule indeed!
Moral of the story: The longer you stay invested the more you make!
Performance Of Stocks Recommended
A New Comprehensive List
What a joyful ride it has been since I started this blog. Well! I know that I am a Richer and Happier man but did YOU follow my blog? It has been a relatively good year for Midcaps & Smallcaps and most of my recommendations are from Mid & Small Caps basket. I am a firm believer that Midcaps with good management and fundamentally strong Balance Sheet give maximum return over a longer period of time. My faith in Peter Lynch has been reinstated again and again.
It's almost two years since I started this Blog and High Time to tweak the portfolio. Hence, The Comprehensive List has been edited with some Addition and Deletion. It also includes stocks recommended by me during the year.
- 3i Infotech 95.50 (Ex Bonus)
- ABC India 47.75
- Aditya Birla Nuvo 868.30
- Adlabs 340.65
- Aftek Infosys 115.65
- Agro Tech Foods 125.10
- Alps Industries 82.00 (Ex Bonus)
- Amara Raja Batteries 38.60 (Ex Split)
- Asahi India 120.00
- Ashapura Minechem 220.00
- Aztec Software 185.20
- Balaji Amines 113.65 (Ex Bonus)
- Batliboi 52.35 (Ex Split)
- Bilcare 640.05
- Biocon 493.75
- VIP Industries 120.00
- Centurion Bank 21.55
- Clutch Auto 125.00
- Crest Animation 141.10
- Crew B.O.S. 172.30
- Deep Industries 30.00
- Elder Pharma 262.80
- Emami 127.25
- Encore Software 30.15
- Entertainment Network India Ltd. 256.95
- FCI OEN Connectors 407.55
- Federal-Mogul Goetze (India) Ltd. 315.55 (Ex Right)
- Flex Industries 101.90
- Gateway Distripark 220.75 (Ex Bonus)
- Genus Power 156.85
- GHCL 140.00
- Gillete 871.55
- Gitanjali Gems 229.70
- Greenply 94.75
- Hikal Ltd. 351.40
- Hind Org Chemicals 40.85
- Hind Sanitary 105.00
- Hitachi Home 87.00
- Honeywell Automation 1,088.45
- Hotel Leela 66.90
- Hyderabad Industries 260.00
- India Cements 221.60
- India Infoline 162.00
- Infomedia India 178.55
- Inox 144.45
- International Combustion 335.00
- ITC Ltd. 142.00
- IVRCL Infra 146.80 (Ex Split)
- Jagran Prakashan 210.80 (Ex Bonus)
- Jain Irrigation 243.00
- Jindal Stainless 97.40
- JK Cement 197.70
- JK Paper 62.00
- Jyoti Structures 67.15 (Ex Split)
- Kajaria Ceramics 45.70
- Linc Pen 40.05
- Macmillan 368.95
- Madhucon Projects 300.00
- Magma Leasing 165.00
- Man Industries 192.00
- Medicaps 92.00
- Micro Technologies India Ltd. 261.70
- Mirc Electronics 21.90
- Navneet Publication 58.00
- NIIT Tech 125.10 (Ex Bonus)
- Northgate Technologies 505.55 (Ex Bonus)
- NRB Bearings 91.80 (Ex Split)
- Orchid Chemicals 210.00
- ORG Informatics 172.55
- Pantaloon Retail 299.35 (Ex Right & Ex Split)
- Patel Engineering 347.95
- Pokarna Ltd. 166.75
- PSL Limited 277.85
- Punj Lloyd 210.00
- R S Software 116.45
- Rajshree Sugar 140.00
- Ramco Industries 1,400.00
- Ramco Systems 317.25
- Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd. 142.50
- Ranbaxy Labs 362.35
- Ratnamani Metal 270.60
- Raymond 403.95
- Reliance Energy 483.55
- Reliance Infra 293.80
- Sangam India 67.10
- Saregama India 226.60
- Savita Chemicals 226.80 (Ex Bonus)
- Shashun Chemicals 84.35
- Shipping Corp. 162.85
- Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd. 136.75
- Simplex Infrastructure 300.20 (Ex Split)
- SKF India 304.95
- South East Asia Marine 175.00
- SPEL Semiconductor 21.05
- Spicejet 82.45
- SREI Infrastructure Finance Ltd. 63.25
- Sterling Holiday 70.52
- Suashish Diamonds 104.60
- Subhash Projects & Marketing Ltd. 230.00
- Surya Pharma 140.65
- Surya Roshni 64.15
- Suven Life Sciences 19.75 (Ex Split & Ex Bonus)
- Tata Elxsi 262.00
- Tata Steel 380.30
- Tata Tea 723.90
- Transport Corporation of India 55.80 (Ex Split)
- TTK Prestige 127.45
- TV 18 389.30 (You also got Network 18 after my Recommendation.. keep it)
- UB Holdings 262.40 (Ex Bonus)
- United Spirits 496.75 (You also got McDowell Holdings after my Recommendation.. keep it)
- Usha International 290.55
- Vadilal Industries 27.00
- Viceroy Hotels 112.00
- Voltas 103.50
- Wockhardt 445.00
- WS Industries 60.10
- Yes Bank 68.55
- Zicom 145.00
- Zodiac Clothing 294.95
Besides, I am also tracking Aegis Logistics, LIC Housing, Marico, Southern Iron & Steel, Tayo Rolls, BL Kashyap, Sobha Developers, Parsvnath & Dolphin Offshore. These stocks can also be considered as my favourites, I am not recommending them at this point of time because I am not comfortable with the price at which they are trading. I sincerely urge all the visitors to do their homework thoroughly before buying any stock and if you feel comfortable then buy it. As I said earlier, I am not a good timer of market. Everybody knows that a correction is eminent, but when it will happen, nobody knows. I lost several opportunities in above mentioned stocks because I was waiting for a correction. All I can say is that the stocks mentioned above are good companies in good businesses with good fundamentals. Its the entry price I am not sure about.
Those who want a complete assessment of my recommendations may download this MS Excel File. Report Card.
HAPPY INVESTING
Rajesh
http://multibaggers.blogspot.com
