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Saturday, January 26, 2008

Motilal Oswal assigns 'buy' to ITC for target Rs 242

Motilal Oswal has maintained a 'buy' on ITC for a target price of Rs 242, an upside of 14 per cent to the market price of Rs 213 considered by the brokerage.

ITC reported sales of Rs 3,460 crore in October-December quarter of 2007 as against the brokerage's estimate of Rs 3,580 crore. Profit after tax was Rs 830 crore against the estimated Rs 797 crore. Other income increased from Rs 69.8 crore to Rs 137.4 crore, led by higher yield on treasury investments in debt instruments.

Cigarette volumes de-grew 1 per cent year on year, which was better than Motilal Oswal's estimate of a 2 per cent decline in growth. Gross sales of cigarette business grew 7.6 per cent and profit before interest and tax grew 16 per cent as margins expanded 190 basis points, the brokerage says in its report dated Jan 18.

Motilal has reduced 2007-08 volume de-growth estimates from 3 per cent to 2 per cent, which indicates flat volumes in January-March quarter. Imposition of value added tax in Uttar Pradesh will reduce state tax on cigarettes from 33 per cent to 12.5 per cent, which will boost the profitability from January-December.

Paper and paperboards business reported 11.2 per cent increase in sales and 13.6 per cent in profit before interest and tax as margins expanded 40 basis points.
 
 
ITC is commissioning 1,20,000 tonne per annum pulp capacity in January-March, 1,00000 tpa writing and paper facility in April-June quarter of 2008-09 and 90,000tpa paperboard capacity in July-September of 2008-09.

The pulp plant will increase margins as production cost is expected to be 30-35 per cent lower than the imported hard wood pulp prices, Motilal says. New FMCG accelerated sales growth to 50 per cent while profit before interest and tax losses increased 38.7 per cent.

Foods business grew 60 per cent as Bingo attained over 16 per cent market share in major metros while Sunfeast biscuits increased market share to 11.8 per cent. Personal care products under Fiama Di Wills and Superia brands received good initial response.

Motilal Oswal has increased other income estimate from Rs 480 crore to Rs 540 crore. The brokerage has also increased FY08, FY09 and FY10 EPS estimates to Rs 8.3, Rs 9.8 and Rs 11.5 from Rs 8.2, Rs 9.5 and Rs 11.4, respectively. The stock

Buy silicon valley

It is a profit making company & declared a bonus of 2:1
BSE code 531738

Quote:
Silicon Valley Infotech Ltd has informed BSE that an Extra ordinary General Meeting (EGM) of the members of the Company will be held on January 30, 2008, inter alia, have accorded to the Board of Directors to capitalise a sum of Rs 6,48,40,000/- out of the Company's Share Premium Account amounting to Rs 12,08,97,000 forming part of the undistributed profits of the Company and that the said sum so capitalised be applied for issue and allotment of 6,48,40,000 Equity Shares of Re 1/- each of the Company (the Bonus Shares) in the share capital of the Company to be allotted and distributed as fully paid-up Bonus Shares to and amongst the Members who are on the Register of Members of the Company as the holders of Equity Shares in the Company on such date as may hereafter be determined by the Board of Directors of the Company ("the Board") in the proportion of One Bonus Shares for every Two Equity Shares held by such Members respectively on that date on the footing that they become entitled to the Bonus Shares as capital and not as Income, subject to necessary provisions & approvals.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Zen Technologies:-The scrip to watch out for in the year 2008

 

"Part of weekly report to the members"

Buzz on the bourses:-

Scrip:Zen Technologies
Bse code:590032
Cmp:139
Target:210
Duration:4-6 months
Returns expected:50%



Story:-Finally "Zen tech" is into the radar of several investors again.More importantly India"s most renowned investor Rakesh jhunjhunwala has approached the company and is taking 450000 shares at a price of 125rs through issue of warrants.These is indeed a great news for the shareholders of zen tech and one can expect the company to give significant upsides in the coming quarters.It should be important to note that Mr jhunjhunwala apparently approached the company couple of years ago and was in advanced stage to have the stake in the company at a price of over 300rs.But that never materialized because of the bad blood between the promoters and Mr Jhunjhunwala.Infact after the news the price of zen tech crashed severely to below 100 levels from 300 odd rs.Its of no intelligence what happened then and for the power of money and supremacy who did what....hehehe...Thankfully things have change for good and now both the promoters and the raring bull are in good terms.Valuation wise too, Zen tech is quoting cheap at 7 P.E of its expected 08 eps of 20rs.One can buy the counter for a target of over 200rs in a horizion of 4-6 months.



Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at: arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

Monday, January 21, 2008

Indian Stock Market Crashed on Jan 21, 2008

Why did the stock market crash?

January 21, 2008

Black Monday saw bloodbath on Dalal Street as the Indian stock markets crashed by over 1430 points in afternoon trade (the market has since then recovered somewhat), reminding investors that there is no one-way bet on the stock market.

Why did this huge fall happen?

Many factors. One, there is a change in the global investment climate. One of the primary triggers is the huge fear of the United States' economy going into a recession with foreign institutional investors trying to reallocate their funds from risky emerging markets to stable developed markets. Analysts are now expecting a cut in US interest rates.

Hedge funds and FIIs could have been the biggest sellers in the Indian markets, booking profits and making the most of the unprecedented bull run that has dominated the Indian stock market for a long time now.

The current volatility is also linked to global bourses. There is a big correlation among global markets. The presence of hedge funds across asset classes, along with increased global movement of capital, has increased event-related volatility.

Volatility in commodities markets has also significantly affected equity markets.

A combination of global and local factors is affecting this market, said Mihir Vora of HSBC Mutual Fund, on NDTV Profit. On the global front, other emerging markets were down nearly 20% so India is playing catch-up, he said.

On the local front there has been a huge build-up in derivatives positions and volatility led to margin calls. Also many IPOs have sucked out liquidity from the primary market into the secondary market, said Vora. At current levels it would be a buy call and we would not advise investors to wait to catch the bottom, he added.

How long will the markets keep falling?

Analysts expect the markets to continue to be choppy for a while till global liquidity and commodity prices settle in. With the markets falling, a technical correction in the derivatives segment has perpetrated a larger fall.

The Sensex can fall another 10-15%, said Adrian Mowat of JP Morgan, on NDTV Profit.

India is trading at 65% premium to emerging markets and India is playing catchup with other declining global markets, he added. There is no need to get very pessimistic that this is the end of equity investing in India, he said. This could be seen as a buying opportunity and we will re-visit market valuations after the correction, he added.

India cannot escape a global meltdown. With fears of an impending US recession high, no country is likely to be spared.

Traders look stunned as the Indian stock markets plummted on Monday.
 
Referrels
 
Goverment view about Stock Market Crash      http://in.reuters.com/article/topNews/idINIndia-31510320080121
 
 

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Natural Resources: Stock Up For 2008

 

At this very moment, we are witnessing a natural resource explosion of massive global dimensions ...
 
Nearly every resource under the sun is surging in value — gold busting through the $800 level ... silver up 18% ... platinum, 33% ... oil nearly reaching $100, its highest level ever ... and more.
 
Nearly every stock linked to natural resources is powering higher.
 
Every natural resource-based stock market — Brazil, Canada , Australia, New Zealand and more — is enjoying spectacular gains. Every natural resource-based foreign currency and every commodity-driven ETF is surging in tandem.
 
In sum, we have a natural resource explosion of massive, global dimensions.
Of course, corrections — sometimes moderate, sometimes sharp — are inevitable. But they're bound to be short-lived as three megaforces come together to drive the biggest natural resources boom of all time ...
 
Megaforce #1
Massive, Rapid Growth of the World's Largest and Most Populous Continent
 
 
Imagine a continent five times larger than the lower 48 states with thirteen times the population.
 
Then imagine a socio-economic transformation that combines the Industrial Revolution, the Information Age, and the rapid birth of fervent entrepreneurial spirit, all concentrated into one short generation.
 
That's the phenomenon called Asia today — steam­rolling ahead, overtaking the world's leading industrial powers and leaving many in the dust. Here are just the most recent results:
 
* China's third-quarter growth was an astonishing 11.5%, four times faster than ours, with spending on factories and property surging 26.4%, industrial production expanding 17.9%, and the country's trade surplus up 70% in the first nine months.
 
* India is not far behind. Economy — up 8.9% in the third quarter. Money flooding into the Indian stock market — $19 billion so far this year, already double last year's record $9.5 billion. Money to be spent on infrastructure and manufacturing — more than $500 billion in the next three years.
 
* Singapore's economy surged 9.4%, the longest expansion since 1991. Factories, financial services, construction — all booming.
 
* South Korea, Malaysia , Hong Kong, even traditionally troubled sisters like Indonesia and the Philippines — all following a similar path.
 
End result: A megaforce of unprecedented dimensions driving the demand for energy, metals, foods and more. Some examples ...
 
Aluminum consumption is rising at nearly 30% annually, hitting a record 14.6 million metric tons this year.
 
Nickel, used to make aluminum, is in such intense demand that inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange have plunged a whopping 89% in the past 12 months to 3,702 tons. That's less than enough to last two meager days of global consumption.
 
Zinc stockpiles just hit their lowest level since 1991 due to overwhelming demand.
 
And despite the U.S. housing bust, copper demand has exploded to more than 18 million metric tons annually.
 
Gold demand is jumping 20% annually. In the third quarter, which ended August 31, India alone consumed more than half the world's total production.
 
Platinum demand is growing at the highest rate of all time.
 
Demand for coffee, wheat, corn, soybeans, even palm oil is off the charts.
And don't forget crude oil. OPEC nations are pumping at near capacity.
 
Mother Earth is straining to pony up the black gold. But it's still not nearly enough to satisfy the spiraling demand from Asia.
 
Result: The highest crude oil prices of all time in nominal terms, and very close to the highest of all time even in inflation-adjusted terms.

Megaforce #2

The Plunging U.S. Dollar
 
The U.S. dollar has now crossed a landmark that will go down in history as the turning point of our era: The greenback has plunged below its all-time low in 1992 to its lowest level of all time.
 
With this single, landmark event, the dollar has crossed from a period of slow, orderly declines ... to a new era of rapid, chaotic declines; from a time when its impact could be ignored ... to a time when its impact will be felt everywhere, especially on those assets that rise the most when the dollar falls — natural resources.
 
And as the greenback sinks, foreign currencies soar:
 
The euro is on a rampage, surging by more than 10 U.S. cents just since August and up 11.5% since the beginning of the year.
 
The Canadian dollar surpassed par with the dollar for the first time in 30 years — and then kept right on going. It now buys around $1.00 U.S., the most since 1960.
 
The Australian dollar, which bought 78 U.S. cents just two and a half months ago, now buys 88 cents ...
 
The Brazilian real has set a seven-year high ... the South Korean won and the Singapore dollar just hit their highest levels in a decade ... even the Chinese yuan, forcibly held down by the Chinese authorities, has jumped to a new high.
 
The impact on natural resources is both immediate and long term.
 
The reasons: Nearly all of the world's resources are priced in dollars. So almost as soon as the dollar falls, their prices have to adjust upward to compensate for the dollar's decline.
 
Meanwhile, international investors, still stuck with trillions in falling U.S. dollars, are not standing still. They see what's happening. And they're running for cover, switching from dollars to any and every contra-dollar asset they can lay their hands on — foreign currencies, gold, silver, other natural resources.
 
Buying contra-dollar investments has been the core of our strategy, and we certainly hope you've followed our lead. If so, you already own what millions of investors around the world now crave — investments that go up when the dollar goes down. If not, it's certainly not too late to start, thanks to ...
 
Megaforce #3
Central Banks Flooding The World With Paper Money And With Wild Abandon
 
 
The world's monetary authorities see the U.S. housing market in its worst downturn of modern times. They see hundreds of mortgage lenders going broke or on the brink.
 
And they see financial firms reeling from tens of billions of dollars in losses.
 
So they're panicking. Running the printing presses overtime.
 
In the U.S., the Fed has been injecting the most money into the banking system since the 9/11 attacks.
 
In Europe, the supply of money is exploding at its fastest pace in 28 years. In Asia, it's even more extreme — money pouring out of every nook and cranny and flooding into the global markets.
 
Meanwhile, interest rates — normally driven higher by surging economies and soaring commodity prices — are, instead, being held down or even pushed sharply lower.
 
Just in the last two months, the U.S. Fed has slashed its discount rate by 1.25 percentage points and its fed funds rate by .75!
 
The European Central Bank, hell bent on hiking its official rates just three months ago, abruptly stopped. And central banks all over the world did the same.
 
 
No Time Left! Take Action Now ... or Never
 
Look. We're not talking about a long-forgotten event or even a soon-to-come storm on the horizon. This is it! These megaforces are here now. Either you do something to adapt ... or you could be left behind.
 
These are opportunities that can change your life and secure your future ... while the pitfalls could erode — and ultimately destroy — your earnings, your savings and your retirement.
 
And if you're thinking the bulk of the commodity-price rises are behind us, think again. Measured in today's dollars, the price of almost every natural resource on the planet is still far, far below the peak price levels established the last time central banks did what they're doing today.
 
Just to match that peak, the price of aluminum would have to surge by over 2.2 times from its recent peak and the price of tin would have to jump by nearly 2.4 times.
 
If gold rises to the same level as it did back in 1980, measured in today's dollars, it would go to $2,271 per ounce — almost triple its most recent peak.
And for some commodities, the undervaluation today relative to their prior peaks is even more extreme: Cocoa, now in rising demand in Asia, would have to sextuple in price. Sugar would have to go up by more than eleven times!
 
Silver, meanwhile, would have to surge to $145, nearly 10 times today's peak.
No one can say with certainty that they will go that far. Nor can anyone be sure their rise will be contained to those levels. But one thing is obvious: There is no evidence that commodities are peaking ... and there's abundant evidence that they have much more upside potential.
 
Ditto for ETFs that track commodity-sensitive economies ... shares of companies profiting from the resources boom ... and foreign currencies that are rising in value as the dollar sinks.
 
What would it take to end this boom?
 
Almost three decades ago, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker ended the last commodity boom with Draconian money-tightening actions — jacking up interest rates by three full percentage points in one single announcement, slapping credit controls on the entire economy, sucking up the world's excess money like a giant vacuum cleaner.
 
Think about that scenario for a moment. Even in your wildest dreams, could you see today's Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke , doing something similar?
 
If your answer is "no," then you can rest assured that the end of the natural resource boom is not today or any time in the foreseeable future.
 
So ... stick with it. Ride this boom as far as it will take you. When we see the opportunity, we will have you take profits along the way. But for the most part, our strategy is to guide you to opportunities that are still in their pre-take-off stage ... and use every subsequent correction as a buying opportunity.
 
This South American country's GDP surged 6.1% in the second quarter. It's where we're seeing the biggest gains in decades in employment, consumer spending, and investment ... where the single largest export is booming ... and where the currency is rising steadily against the U.S. dollar.
 
So how can a conservative investor participate in that country's stable-but-rapid growth?
 
Alternative energy company with soaring profits
 
 
A torrent of forces have converged to create the perfect storm for skyrocketing oil prices:
  • Surging worldwide demand ...

  • A new string of Fed rate cuts ...

  • The U.S. dollar teetering on the verge of collapse ...

  • New tensions between Turks and Kurds ...

  • New attacks on oil-producing facilities ...
And no matter what you may already own in this sector, the time is right to branch out into alternative energy, fast becoming a national — and global — priority. One of our favorites: Solar energy.

Grey Market Premiums as on January 18, ‘08

Company Name Open/Close Offer Price (Rs.) Premium (Rs.) Kostak
Future Capital 11 Jan - 16 Jan 700 to 765 540 to 550 -
Reliance Power 15 Jan - 18 Jan 405 to 450 340 to 350 6300 to 6500
J. Kumar Infra Project 18 Jan - 23 Jan 110 to 120 25 to 30 1800 to 2000
Cords Cable Ind. Ltd 21 Jan - 24 Jan 125 to 135 30 to 35 1700 to 1900
OnMobile 24 Jan - 29 Jan 425 to 450 - -
Emaar MGF 04 Feb - 07 Feb 725 to 850 370 to 375 -

Friday, January 18, 2008

Recession In The US Economy

An economy is officially in recession when Gross Domestic Production of a country is negative for two quarters or more. The stress here is on negative growth. However, it is likely that an economy may not experience any negative growth but a prolonged growth of reduced or very low growth, though not negative. Because of this, we may still feel like recessionary conditions though not declared officially as yet.

Even though US economy has not officially been declared to be in recession, there are supposed to be a large number of recessionary conditions which may finally lead to a recession. These are a larger jump in unemployment numbers, inflationary conditions, credit crunch, housing meltdown, falling consumer sentiments, huge trade deficits, falling dollar values, weakening stocks etc. It is believed that US economy is facing all of these conditions at present.

Since US economy has extensive involvement with many major world economies, any recession here may in turn lead to global recession. That is why any slowing down of US economy immediately attracts worldwide attention.

US government does not admit that there is a recession as yet. US president has been sending positive statements and he has been denying that the US economy is in any danger of recessionary conditions.

US unemployment data has suggested an unemployment rate of 5% during December 2007 after jumping from 4.7%. 5% rate of unemployment should not be that alarming as this has hovered around 6% historically. But this is considered to be a big jump and there was immediate negative reaction in the stock markets.

Slowing growth in the US economy has been causing worries amongst many experts and institutions.

Other factors affecting the US economy at present are falling housing prices, tightening credit markets, tumbling value of US dollar, ballooning national credit or budgetary deficits, rising energy prices etc.

Business sentiment also appears to be on the decline. Many people do not seem to be having much faith in the US economy at present. International proxy wars have also done a great damage to the US economy.

US Government is considering many measures to combat recessionary conditions. These include tax packages, interest rate relief, liquidity injection, energy conservation and the like. However, it may not be easy to tackle wider issues like reduced business spending, spiraling energy prices, huge budgetary deficits etc.

US presidential elections are due in 2008. We may witness continuing uncertainty till these are over and there is a clear policy direction from the US Government.

One particular area to remain vigilant about is continuing downward pressure on housing prices. If this trend continues there may be further mortgage defaults. This may then spread over to other sectors like the consumer discretionary sector. That may add fuel to recessionary conditions.

 

Sayaji hotels : The next big star in the hotel industry

 


Scrip scan:-Sayaji hotels
Code:-523710
cmp:-112


Introduction:-Booming tourism industry and higher business travel has led to insufficient rooms in indian hotel industry. As a result,most hotels in all categories are enjoying best ever occupancy as well as arpu.Hotel industry is expected to do much better for next 2-3 years.

In such a scenario, sayaji hotels appears a good pick.Promoted by dhanani family of indore, company has hotels in baroda and indore.In fact,indore property enjoys dominant position in indore city with its central location.Sayaji faces very little competition in indore.Indore hotel offers full marriage package which is very popular and big money spinner for the company.

Future prospects:Company has been performing exceedingly well.It is estimated that sayaji should earn revenue of rs. 80 crs. And net profit of rs. 7 crs for fy08.

The company has set up a 350 room hotel in pune.Company is also planning to set up another hotel in one of the major prime cities. These 2 projects will catapult sayaji into bigger league.

The company has up chain of restaurants called 'kabab ville'.These restaurants offer high quality speciality food at reasonable prices.

Sayaji Hotels:-The company is planning to capitalise the hospitality boom by opening 100 Barbeque Nation restaurants in the next 3 years.

Conclusion:-The scrip is presently quoting at 112 rs and has been moving up up after a long gap of time.Though valuations are not dirt cheap but numbers should speak in the coming quarters.Prospects looks good.Management is ambitious and they are doing all the rite things needed to make a name for themselves.



Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at: arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

Cinevistaas Ltd:-Another high potential candidate

 

Part of the weekly report to members,sent some months back.


Name:Cinevistaas Ltd
CMP-84
Equity is 10.13 crs.
B.V:62.50rs
Promoters:68% stake.



Story-Company has 4 acres land at Kanjur Marg, Mumbai.Market value of same is around 120 crs. However,company is not selling the land.In 1st Phase, company is developing an I.T. Park on 2 acres which will have around 2.20 lakh s.f. area.Company will not sell the same. Entire property will be put on lease which will earn around Rs. 26-28 crs. as lease rent each year.This works out to 2.60 -2.80 times of its Equity. Company will be spending around 48-50 crs for construction of this I.T.Park to be completed in 18 months.It is being developed by company itself without any partnership with any builder. Expected lease rent is calculated on the basis of prevailing lease rates although when project is ready in 18 months,company may get higher lease rates.For Phase-II, company will undertake development of remaining 2 acres on which also it will build 2.20 lakh s.f. I.T. Park.

Conclusion-Media stocks are attracting abnormal valuations these days.These news is not known to the market.Insider claims the price target to be 120+ in the next 2-4 months.Bravehearts can go with it,"A HIGH RISK-HIGH GAIN STOCK" .



Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at:- arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

Lanco Holdings-Real Estate Play : Medium Term Buy

 

Lancor Holdings-Real Estate Play
BSE 509048

Have a look at Lancor Holdings (formerly DBS) BSE 509048..corporate developing 7 mn sq feet in Chennai and Hyderabad.

Conservative profits over next 2 years Rs 350 crore.

Equity Rs 4 crore (Rs 2 paid Up)

Promoters Holding: 76 per cent
Goldman Sachs and Merrill-10 per cent.

Management will have to sell 3-4 per cent Equity by March 2008 to comply with the listing requirements.

Possible Stake Sale at Rs 200 per share.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Message from Active Trades

ActiveTrades:
*Nifty is highly oversold,
*Halt ur buys, and buy abv 5950.
*Exit leveraged positions & Hedge with lowest nifty put

Reliance power and Future capital IPO

 

A gentleman who HAS SO FAR not set-up even 1 mw till today gets premium of Rs 390/ in IPO for a company which is only on paper so far. Another company which has made loss of 10 crs in H1 is coming out with IPO at 80 times its face value. Any disctionary defies any description for this kind of financial greed/scams/promoters-from-heaven(or hell). Never it has happened like it before. Caution is needed. Everything looks good to every investor at every/any price bcoz large section of media/analysts/merchant bankers/managers to the issue are sold out in the hands of these promoters whose greed knows no bound and has no parallel on this planet. MONEY IS THE ONLY GOD WHICH THEY ARE WORSHIPPING. No once cares for fundamentals, rationality. RAM RAM JAPNAA, PARAAYAA MAAL APNA.

However, there is age-old saying "GREED IS THE FODDER OF THE CHEAT. SO LONG AS GREEDY INVESTORS ARE THERE, CHEAT PROMOTERS WILL NEVER STARVE TO DEATH".

Investors are getting carried away due to 2 factors:

1. 5% discount and only 25% on Application money: 5% discount is like 5% refund on Rs 400/ which investors are being robbed off. 25% as if investors are not liable to pay balance 75%.

2. In grey market, already trades are taking place at Rs 800/. So, investors will feel what is harm in applying for issue at 400/ when it will be sold at 800/? Is not this make-believe situation created by vested circles/interest who dont mind wasting/spending few hundred crs (by buying few lakh/mn shares) to give an impression that entire issue of 11000 crs commands premium of 11000 crs so that promoters can collect free kaa 11000 crs.

Worst part is that there is not a single MAN in media who could advise "not to apply/reject" for this issue, who could term it as blatantly overpriced? Who could question project implementation record of this promoter?

Similarly, Pantaloon is biggest retailer but he is not the most profitable corporate in India. His profit margins are abysmally low. Does his loss making co deserve price of 80 times of the face value?


Regards,
ARUN

I can be reached at: arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Reliance, Ansal, GMR bid for Amritsar Airport development

A total of 23 companies, including Reliance Energy, Ansal Properties, L & T, GMR Infrastructure and GVK, have submitted their bid for the development of Amritsar International Airport in Punjab, it was announced today.


The applications will be opened for evaluation tomorrow, a Civil Aviation Ministry statement said.

The Government had invited bids for commercial operation, maintenance of terminal building, development and operation of cargo facilities, and cityside development of the airport, the last date for which ended yesterday.

Amritsar and Udaipur are among the first 25 non-metro airports whose cityside development will be done in phases through the public private partnership model (PPP).

The bidders include Reliance Energy Ltd+AAACPL+RADPL+ASA, GMR Infrastructure Ltd, L&T+IDPL Unique Consortium, GVK+Leighton Consortium, Unitech Ltd, Ansal Properties & Infrastructure Ltd, and TADL+Changi Airports.

The GMR-led Delhi International Airport Pvt Ltd in 2006 had outbid Reliance for rebuilding the Indira Gandhi International Airport in Delhi that saw a long-drawn court battle between the two companies.

Other bidders for the Amritsar Airport are IVRCL Infrastructure & projects Ltd, Fraport AG, Maytas Infrastructure Ltd, NCC IHL+VIE Indicu & Beteiligungen Gmbh, ECC+DB Realty J/V, Unity Infraprojects Ltd + MSCI Projects Ltd, K Raheja Corp Groups + Macquarie Group, D S Constructions Ltd, Emaai MGF+Gammon Infrastructure _ GE India, Geocities Airport Infrastructure Pvt Ltd, Omaxe+Velecha Joint Venture, Zoom Developers Pvt. Ltd, Oriental Structural Engineers Pvt Ltd, Srei Galfar Shirti Askles Bueldeon (Consortium), IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd+Aviation management & Services LLC+ Emirates Trading Agency LLC, Atlanta Limited, and Lanco Infratech Ltd+Genting (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.

Sayaji Hotels -Barbeque Nation

Sayaji Hotels owns two hotels, one each in Indore and Baroda and is also the parent company of a chain of restaurants, ¡Barbeque Nation¢.

Dominant market share in Indore

Flagship Indore property with 210 rooms has a 75% market share in the three star segment with a room capacity equivalent to the combined capacity of the nearest four hotels

Its second property is in Baroda with 53 rooms

The company has the highest turnover of all non metro and Goa hotels in the country coupled with the largest per person banqueting capacity in the country of 1,400/365 days.

Average Room Revenues (ARRs) for the company were about Rs2,200 in FY07; expected to increase by about 27% in FY08

Food & Beverage (F&B) is an area of expertise; Room revenues to F&B ratio at 1:2 as compared to 1: 0.6 for the industry.
 
o commission a four star property in Pune

Company to commission a 247 room four star category property in Pune along with a club and banquet hall by December 2008

Funding requirements of Rs1.4bn already tied up through FCCB and preferential issue in 2006 and debt

Pune hotel expected to have operating margins of about 55% Scaling up ¡Barbeque Nation¢

The company, through its 100% owned subsidiary Sanchi Hotels, owns "destination restaurants" under the brand name of ¡Barbeque Nation¢ Investment by parent company to remain at Rs250mn in the restaurant subsidiary Currently it operates five outlets: Mumbai, Bangalore (2), Hyderabad and Gurgaon; by end of FY08, it plans to take the total to 14
Company plans to open a restaurant every three months and targets 100 such restaurants by FY10 which would then provide it with economies of scale and even a likely hive off

Restaurants to drive growth

Although restaurants are lower margin business as compared to hotels, but lower gestation period (3 months) as compared to a hotel (2 years) imply that company can build brand visibility faster All its restaurants would have identical set up and ambience providing
a similar experience in all the locations

The company may look to the franchisee model once it achieves a certain critical mass with its restaurants Payback period for restaurants seen at about 2.5 years.

Jan 15, 2008 Brokerage Recomendations from Market calls

ABG SHIPYARD
Target price: Rs 1,096
Upside: 17%
Brokerage: Prabhudas Lilladher


ABG Shipyard has announced Rs 400 crore expansion of its Surat facility, which will increase its fabrication capacity by up to four times. This expansion is likely be completed by July 2008. Further, it has also proposed to set up a new deep water shipyard, which is likely to be completed by 2011. The company is likely to invest Rs 800 crore on this shipyard.

In order to fund the expansion, the company has issued four million warrants to its promoter at a price of Rs 796. Further, the company plans to raise Rs 800 crore through a qualified institutional bidders (QIB) issue. The estimated equity dilution post issue is likely to be 22 per cent.

On account of higher than operating margin, Prabhudas Lilladher expects ABG Shipyard to expand its margin from 19 per cent to 24 per cent in FY08.

The brokerage revised its FY09 revenue estimate for ABG Shipyard upward by 20 per cent to Rs 1,890 crore on account of the expansion at Surat. At Rs 979, the stock traded at 16 times estimated FY09 earnings. The brokerage rates the stock an "outperformer" with a price target of Rs 1,096.
 
 
BAJAJ AUTO
Target price: Rs 2,928
Upside: 16.3%
Brokerage: Indiabulls


The shift in Bajaj Auto's focus from the low margin entry level bikes to high margin premium segment bikes along with the shutdown of the assembly operations at Akurdi plant, resulted in the expansion of margins for Q2 FY08.

While expected earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin expanded by a sharp 100 basis points (bps) y-o-y to 16 per cent, net profit margin showed a substantial improvement of 110 bps y-o-y to 14.6 per cent.

In the insurance business, Bajaj reported a robust growth with gross written premium increasing 40 per cent y-o-y in general insurance and 127.8 per cent y-o-y in life insurance business.

Bajaj Auto's recent launch XCD in the 125cc segment, is performing well. To meet the strong demand for XCD, the company is planning to increase production to 75,000 units per month from January 2008.

Bajaj Auto also launched Avenger 200cc recently, in the premium segment to increase the market share and enlarge its product base. Considering the better than expected growth in the bottom line, Indiabulls has revised its earnings estimates by 3.5 per cent and 4.1 per cent for FY08 and FY09, respectively. Based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, Indiabulls rates Bajaj Auto as "buy" with an FY09 target price of Rs 2,928.
 
 
MERCATOR LINES
Target price: Rs 255
Upside: 87.6%
Brokerage: Pioneer Investcorp


Mercator Lines is the fastest growing and the second largest private shipping company in India. It has built scale rapidly with its tonnage growing from less than 0.1 million dead weight tonne (dwt) in FY00 to 2.4 million dwt in FY08. With aggressive expansion plans lined up, the company should see further increase in capacity by FY10.

Mercator Lines has been one of the aggressive players, though constrained by a relatively small balance sheet so far. With the recent rounds of fund raising ($300 million) and robust internal accruals ($100 million a year), Mercator Lines' balance sheet is now large (approximately $1.5 billion or around Rs 6,000 crore) and strong with a net leverage about1.2 times.

Thus, the company appears to be ready for the next phase of expansion (up to $1.5 billion) to move up the league as a large regional player.

Mercator Lines has also been able to de-risk its business model by maintaining a judicious mix (50-70 per cent) of long term charters (3-5 years). In order to further de-risk its business model, Mercator Lines has adopted a three pronged strategy to reduce its dependence on shipping.

This includes diversification into related and high growth areas of dredging, offshore services and mining. The brokerage recommends a "buy" on Mercator Lines, with a 12-month price target of Rs 255.
 
 
 
ORIENT PAPER AND INDUSTRIES
Target price: Rs 952
Upside: 31.3%
Brokerage: India Infoline


Orient Paper's cement division is among the most profitable ones, aided by location advantage of plants and high quality limestone reserves.

It generates 95 per cent of its cement revenues from supply deficient Southern and Western regions and is expanding capacity at Devapur and Jalgaon plants to 5 million tonne from 2.7 million tonne per annum, and clinker capacity to 3.2 million tonne from 2 million tonne per annum by March 2009 at an investment of Rs 600 crore.

In its core business, Orient Paper has a strong presence in the photocopying, office paper and tissue paper segment. To meet the increasing demand for paper, the company plans to increase its Amlai plant capacity by 20,000 tonne from existing 85,000 tonne per annum with an investment of Rs 100 crore.

Orient dominates the fast growing Rs 700 crore tissue paper segment with a 40 per cent market share and plans to expand its tissue paper capacity to 30,000 tonne from present 10,000 tonne per annum by Q4 FY09.

India Infoline expects Orient's net profit to witness a 30.8 per cent compounded average growth over FY07-10 driven by improving realisations across segments and healthy operating margins. At Rs 727, the stock traded at 4.8 times estimated FY10 earning per share (EPS) of Rs 152.2. The brokerage recommends "buy" with a one-year price target of Rs 952.
 
 
 

BASF:Expanding Successful Partnerships in Crop Protection

Competent system partner for fruit and vegetable value chains

Increased consumer demands require innovative solutions

BASF at the Fruit Logistica from Febuary, 7th to 9th 2008 in Berlin
In line with the motto "Living Food Quality Together", the BASF business unit Crop Protection consequently relies on the continuation and expansion of partnerships and joint projects within the fruit and vegetable value chains.

Thanks to joint pilot projects together with wholesalers, the food retail industry, producers and independent analysis institutes, e.g. Spanish strawberries and Turkish table grapes could be produced for the German market in the 2007 season. The high quality demands regarding sustainable production and food safety were exceeded in this production. This successful project is expected to be expanded and continued in the coming season.

BASF will be present for the third time at the international trade fair for fruit and vegetable marketing "Fruit Logistica", which will take place from February 7th to 9th 2008 in Berlin. With its products and services, BASF presents itself as partner for all phases in the fruit and vegetable value chain: from production to trade.

Today of course, for many of us it is a matter to always be able to buy fresh fruit and vegetables of highest quality and in a wide variety. But in order to be able to meet the increasing expectations of the consumers, with regard to quality, safety and availability of fresh food, it is absolutely necessary that all partners in the value chain pursue one and the same objective.
 
Thus, a panel discussion is to be held on February 8th 2008 at the "Fruit Logistica" in Berlin. It will also focus on new and future demands of trade and agriculture. In line with the motto "Quality and Quantity: A Contradiction?" representatives of trade, producers, consumers, scientists as well as of BASF will discuss issues concerning the safeguarding of food quality in future.

With sales of €3,079 million in 2006, BASF's Crop Protection division is a leader in crop protection and a strong partner to the farming industry providing well-established and innovative fungicides, insecticides and herbicides. Farmers use these products and services to improve crop yields and crop quality. Other uses include public health, structural/urban pest control, turf and ornamental plants, vegetation management, and forestry. BASF aims to turn knowledge rapidly into market success. The vision of BASF's Crop Protection division is to be the world's leading innovator, optimizing agricultural production, improving nutrition, and thus enhancing the quality of life for a growing world population. Further information can be found on the web at www.agro.basf. com

BASF is the world's leading chemical company: The Chemical Company. Its portfolio ranges from chemicals, plastics, performance products, agricultural products and fine chemicals to crude oil and natural gas. As a reliable partner to virtually all industries, BASF's high-value products and intelligent system solutions help its customers to be more successful. BASF develops new technologies and uses them to meet the challenges of the future and open up additional market opportunities. It combines economic success with environmental protection and social responsibility, thus contributing to a better future. BASF has approximately 95,000 employees and posted sales of €52.6 billion (approximately $66.1 billion) in 2006.

Yen Carry Trade and Unwinding - Expained

8/18/07

Darshak

what is Yen Carry trade and unwinding ?

i m confused with this yen carry trade issue and its unwinding position and hot it can impact our marekt please explain in detail in simple and what is unwinding postions in yen carry trade unwinding ka hindi kaya hota hai ?
8/18/07

Rishi

As you may know, A lot of big FIIs and Hedge funds are buying stocks in our markets and around the world!

Ever wondered where they get their funding from?

They borrow from Japan @ dirt cheap interest rates of 0.5%.... for that they need to convert their dollars & euros into YEN and then invest globally.

Now imagine that HEDGE FUND (A) exchanges 1 dollar into 123 yen around two months back and buys into some stock market.....

Now the Dollar rate to the YEN becomes 113!,

When dollar becomes 120 from 113, that means that the value of their asset has reduced by 3%.... which is HUGE for the hedge funds!! - It can easily drive them to bankruptcy!

Hence @ $113 - Yen, The hedge funds will fear that dollar may down like last time and they may stand to lose much more in asset valuation....

This is the reason they WILL panic and this will lead to a global sell off - FOR SURE!
 
 
8/18/07

Gaurav

Well Rishi, you are actually telling the reverse. What I understand is as follows:

1) Big institutions borrow in Japan because of lower interest rates.
2) They then convert these yen into dollars. It has been stated that the actual amount borrowed is around $200 billion.
3) This is leveraged 10 times and invested into the markets abroad. That's equal to around $2000 billion invested in overseas markets.
4) At the time of repayment, they again convert their dollars back into yen and repay as and when due.

5) Now the whole things works because of lower interest rates and stable currency. Since the yen is appreciating so sharply, institutions need much more dollars to repay. This has led to negating the effect of lower interest rates. Therefore money may be pulled back from markets worldwide and repaid. This is what is being referred to when they mention "unwinding of yen carry trade"
 
8/18/07

Lost In

@ gaurav u seem to be making much more sense
8/18/07

Abinesh

yes gaurav is perfectly right
 
 
8/18/07

ChInTaN....

ya GAURAV is right

and if yen again rise thn there would be a big problem

just yesterday FII sell in japan was seen never before

and IN THAT MAIN THING IS THT TOSE CORPORAT IN JAPAN WHO BOUGHT YEN AT 119 for their funding

NOW IT IS AT 114

1 YEN DECREASE MEAN 50 MILLION DOLLOR OPM LOST

SO wht will be next quater result in japan u can guess
 
 
8/18/07

Darshak

ok thank u very much guys for sharing knowledge ok now i got it thanx again
8/18/07

Aditya

wat is the reason for the appreciating yen??
8/18/07

Johnny

yen rises due to sudden heavy demand for it...when the hedge funds cash in their investments in emerging markets/europe/US they need to repay their yen denominated debt and in case of global sell off the demand for yen can increase substantially
BTW these days indian markets track asian indexes a lot more than Dow and if the yen unwinding becomes an issue the entire asian bourses can go into a tailspin
8/18/07

VishaL

Yes GAURAV & ROHIT both r absolutely right.
now we have to focus more on YEN thn DOW. in coming weeks to predict our market performances
 
showing 11-15 of 15   
8/18/07

Darshak

thanx gaurav for explaining to such a good way and rest of all too but if they borrow 200 million than how leverage comes to 2000 ?
8/18/07

Rashesh

Gr8 Topic Guys

Gr8 topic to discuss guys! Its good to b a part of discussion above mass class!

Rishi ...Gaurav Keep it up!

Try n Bring in Such Macro factors affecting our mkt.

Regards,
Rashesh Patel.
 
5:13 am (10 minutes ago) 
 

available for chat Rajandran

What is Yen Carry Trade

A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates - which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage the investor chooses to use.

For More Details about Yen Carry Trade and Its effect in Global Market Visit
http://www.marketcalls.org/2007/11/yen-carry-trade-and-its-effect.html
5:14 am (9 minutes ago

available for chat Rajandran

Yen Carry Trade

1$=106.68 ¥ - Dollar is getting Weaker When Compare to YEN
Asian Market May fall Tommorow

Hope Indian Market Recovers

Nifty Support at 5920

Monday, January 14, 2008

Stock Calls and Targets for Investors of all kinds

SHORT TERM CALLS


JP HYDRO ( BUY) CMP (TAR1) 133 (TAR2) 144 (SL) 107

HB STOCKHOLDINGS( BUY ) 121-124 (TAR1) 137 (TAR2) 151 (SL) 96


MEDIUM TERM CALLS


JUPITER BIO ( BUY) 170-172 (TAR1) 225 (TAR2) > 251 (SL) 139

HFCL ( BUY ) 50-52.5 (TAR1) 74(TAR2) >96 (SL) 38


LONG TERM CALLS


GATEWAY DIST( BUY) CMP (TAR1) 236 (TAR2) 319 (SL) NO SL

LIBERTY PHOSPHATE( BUY ) CMP (TAR1) 38 (TAR2) 52 (SL) 18

D. S. Kulkarni Developers Ltd : Best Pick from Marketcalls

D. S. Kulkarni Developers Ltd., (DSKDL) is a 16-year old Pune, Maharashtra based company established in 1991. The company entered the capital market with a public issue in April 1993 to part-finance its working capital requirements for its existing and future activities. It also came out with a rights cum follow-on public issue last year, which was heavily oversubscribed. D. S. Kulkarni is the chairman and managing director of the company.

The company is engaged in the construction of residential and commercial buildings and has acquired plots for development in Mumbai and Pune, which will provide excellent opportunities for development in the future.

Subsidiaries: DSKDL has incorporated a subsidiary company named 'DSK Developers Corporation' (DSKDC) in the State of Delaware, USA, and was subsequently registered to do business in the State of New Jersey also. The primary focus of DSKDC is on search and acquisition of properties in New Jersey and New York, USA. It has acquired six properties in New Jersey and will develop them further in FY08.

Completed Projects: DSKDL's completed projects in Pune include Vanashree at Nav Sahyadri, Ashwini Apartments at Rasta Peth, Om Ganesh Company Housing Society at Budhwar Peth, Amit Apartments at Model Colony, Suryalok Nagari at Hadapsar, Dnyaneshwar Nagari at Pune-Satara Road, Haryali Phase I at Modi Baug and Saraswati Vinayak at Paud Road. In Mumbai, the projects include Kalyan Nagari Phase I and II at Kalyan (W), DSK Saraswati at Malad (E), DSK Trilok at Dadar (W), DSK Sahil at Vile Parle (E) and DSK Harita at Kandivili (E). Its other ventures include DSK Motors, DSK Infotech, DSK School, DSK World Man Computers etc.
 
Current Projects: Its projects currently under construction are in Pune, Mumbai and Nashik. At Pune, the projects under construction are DSK Vishwa Phase I, II and III, DSK Saptasur Phase IV, Vishwa Villa, DSK Sayantara, DSK Sundarban, DSK Frangipani, DSK Garden Enclave and Gulmohar. In Mumbai the projects include DSK Madhuban and DSK Durgamata Towers at Cuffe Parade in South Mumbai.

SEZ: The company has received an in-principle approval from the Special Economic Zones Board of Approvals to develop a Multi-services SEZ of 250 acres at Fursungi in Pune district. It has executed a Term Sheet with GTC Real Estate NV of Netherlands (GTC) for joint development of this SEZ. The said SEZ is proposed to be developed in a SPV Company to be equally owned by DSKDL and GTC. GTC is expected to invest about. US $96 million into this project in a phased manner.

Branding Initiative: Earlier DSKDL had its activities restricted to in and around Pune city. But now it has acquired land and expanded its activities in Bangalore and Chennai. The company has also purchased seven properties in USA through its US subsidiaries to create its global footprints.

Awards: DSKDL is the recipient of several awards like Hind Ratan Sword of Honour, CM Shah Concrete Technology Award, Kumar AESA award for the best housing complex (DSK Ranwara), AESA award for the best glazing work 3S station (DSK Toyota) and was ranked as the second fastest growing real estate company in India, Construction World Top Builders Award 07, Construction World NICMAR Award 2007 and CNBC Awaaz, CRISIL Real Estate Award 2007.

The company has been integrated as a member of Global Growth Company by World Economic Forum, an institution based at Switzerland. In 1999-2000, it was awarded ISO 9001 certificate from the Quality Certification Bureau Inc., Canada, as well as from the Dutch Council for Accreditation
 
Performance: DSKDL has reported impressive results for FY07. It clocked net sales of Rs.229.74 cr. with a net profit of Rs.35.16 cr. netting an EPS of Rs.16 for 2006-07.

Financials : The company has an equity base of Rs.22 cr. and with reserves of Rs.254.25 cr. the book value of its share works out to Rs.125.57. In FY07, the company's net worth has risen by 702% to Rs.27,625 lakh from Rs.3,445 lakh in FY06. Net worth for FY07 mainly constitutes of the share premium of Rs.20,078 lakh due to the increased share capital by way of composite issue. The debt:equity ratio has improved from 2.03 times in FY06 to 0.29 times for FY07.

Share Profile: The share of DSKDL is listed and traded on the BSE under the B2 segment. It touched a 52-week high/low of Rs.428/224. At its current market price of Rs.310, it has a market capitalisation of Rs.831 cr.

Dividends: The company has been paying dividends as shown below:
March 2007 - 20%; March 2006 - 20%; March 2005 - 7%; March 2004 - 7%; March 2003 - 7%.

Prospects: The real estate story in India is growing bigger by the day. The increase in purchasing power and exposure to organised retail formats has redefined the consumption pattern. As a result, retail projects have been mushrooming even in B-grade cities and the retail market is expected to grow at around 35% p.a. This growth is facilitated by favourable demographics, increased purchasing power, existence of customer-friendly banks and housing finance companies, professionalism in real estate and reforms initiated by the government to attract global investors.

India has emerged as the most attractive destination for retailers in 2007. According to the latest AT Kearney study, India leads the annual list of most attractive emerging markets for retail investment followed by Russia and China for the third year in a row.
 
Demand for office premises is reported to be growing owing to establishment of IT/ITES services. By 2010, the IT sector alone is expected to require 150 million sq. ft. of space across major cities.

According to India Retail Report 2007, shopping malls and entertainment houses such as multiplexes and organised retail, which currently account for only 4.6% of the US $270 billion Indian retail sector, is expected to grow at 37% in 2007 and 42% in 2008. The report adds that organised retail in India has the potential to add over US $45 billion business by 2010. This is expected to create a demand for around 220 million sq. ft. of retail space by 2010.

As the tourism industry is growing rapidly, the demand for hotels and resorts is also increasing and the government's encouragement to SEZ augurs well for construction companies. The prospects for real estate developers, therefore, are quite promising to say the least.

Conclusion: The construction sector is an important constituent of every economy and accounts for about 12% of India's GDP. The Indian real estate has huge demand potential in almost every sector, especially in commercial, residential and retail. It is estimated that in the residential sector there is a housing shortage of 19.4 million units out of which 6.7 million are in urban India.

At its current market price of Rs.310, the DSKDL share is discounted less than 15 times against the industry average P/E multiple of 27 times. Besides, real estate stocks are the flavour of the season with the likes of DLF, Unitech, Sobha Developers, Parsvnath, Omaxe etc. are being eagerly sought after by investors. DSKDL is quoting at a reasonable price and there is substantial scope for appreciation. Buy for significant gains in the medium-to-long-term

CLSA: RIL May Turn Out To Be The Stock Of 2008

Reliance-Only Vimal
-The momentum in some pockets of the Indian equity market highlights the unabated investor appetite for broad-brush macro investment stories, the global economic outlook and execution risk notwithstanding.

-E&P (Exploration and Production), organised retail and infrastructure are equally compelling themes; Reliance is strongly positioned in each of these segments.

-Upstream E&P (under-explored) , organised retail (under-penetrated) and infrastructure (non-existent) are equally compelling themes.

-Besides having global scale in refining and petchem, Reliance is uniquely placed in each of these areas with a commanding E&P footprint, the largest ever retail rollout attempt as well as an ambitious SEZ development plan.

- At 15.6x FY10 PE, Reliance trades at a 50-70% premium to peers and we see no fundamental upside but its 12-18% neutral index weight makes it difficult to ignore.

-More Important than the performance of existing divisions would be the listing of Reliance holdings in RIL-Retail, Reliance Lifestyle, Reliance Jewels and Reliance SEZ.

-Hedging Portfolios by shorting the Nifty may not work in an environment where-in a large cap stock like RIL is rising, however going long on RIL futures may be an alternate to Portfolio Outperformance.

Invest in mutual funds, says SEBI official

Mutual funds and emerging mutual fund products are good opportunities for investors in Kerala who are keen to tap the stock market, said R. K. Nair, Executive Director of Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) here on Monday.

Mr. Nair was inaugurating a seminar organised here by Cochin Stock Exchange (CSE) of Value Investment as part of its investment awareness campaign.

The SEBI official said that mutual funds have grown rapidly in the country and predicted that within 20 to 30 years mutual funds will have more funds than the banking institutions. He said that mutual funds were good investment vehicles and should be used by investors.

Opportunities offered by mutual funds are increasing because new products are emerging. The gold mutual will be followed by the real estate mutual fund, said Mr. Nair.

He said that the other emerging arenas were venture capital funds and hedge that are coming to India in a big way.

He felt that people in Kerala continued to rely on bank deposits and that they could use the capital market for earning handsome returns.

Mr. Nair said that SEBI was committed to investor education and to help the regional stock exchanges like Cochin Stock Exchange. He said that SEBI Chairman had declared 2008 as the Year of the Investor.

Upcoming IPO's for the Year 2008

 
 
2008 11-16th Jan,08 700-765Future Capital Holding Ltd 495CRKotak ; Enam ; JM ; UBS 6,422,800
200815-18th Jan,08 405-435 Reliance Power 10260cr-11503 cr Kotak/UBS/abn/ deustche/ Enam/ isec/jm/Jp Morgan/ (co brlm : Macquire & sbi) 1,300,000,000
2008 18-23rd Jan,08 J Kumar Infraprojects Ltd. 100 CRAnand Rathi 6,500,000
2008 20th or 24th Jan,08 Gammon Infra Projects 350+CRSSKI;Macquarie India Adviosry 16,550,000
2008 21-24th Jan,08 Cords Cable Industries Ltd 100CR Inga Collins Stewart 3,500,000
2008 24-27th Jan,08 KNR Constructions Ltd. 140-150 CRAXIS BANK 7,874,570
200831st Jan - 5- 6 th Feb,08 Wockhard Hospital 1000CRCitigroup/Kotak/ Enam 30,000,000
200830-31st Jan,08 Manjushree Extrusions Ltd 35.7Centrum
2008 Jan last Week Techpro Systems 250 cr approxSBI , Kotak 7,300,000
2008 JAN-FEB GSS America Infotech Ltd. 150 cr approxRELIGARE Sec 3,497,495
2008JAN-FEB EMAAR MGF 5000+cr DSPML/ENAM/JM/ JPM/KOTAK/ UBS 117,389,914
2008 31st Jan - 5 th Feb,08 IRB Infra Developers Ltd. 1100-1150CRDeustche ; Kotak Sec 51,057,666
200804-07th Feb,08 Globus Spirit Ltd. 68crSREI Capital
200804-08th Feb,08 SVEC Constructions Ltd. 40-50CRKarvy ; Centrum 4,000,000
2008 2nd Week of Feb 08 Vascon Engineering 400-500 cr approxDSPML ; Kotak 10,680,000
2008 2nd Week Feb,08 Jhaveri Flexo India Ltd 50CRSREI Capital
2008 1-2nd Week Feb,08 Onmobile Global Ltd. 400crDeustche ; ICICI Sec 10,900,545
2008 Feb,08 Vascon Engginerring
2008 Feb,08 Alkali Metal Ltd 55crRELIGARE Sec 3,848,100
2008Feb-Mar,08 Rural Electrification Corporation 957 crILFS/SBI/ISEC 156,120,000
2008Feb-Mar,08 OIL INDIA 450-500CR CITI/HSBC/JM- MS

For more upcoming IPO News visit http://www.moneycontrol.com/ipo

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Brokers Recommendations


HDIL

Target Price: Rs 2,076


ICICI Securities has initiated coverage on the Mumbai-based real estate player, HDIL, with a 'strong' buy. The recommendation is based on the company's 'immense potential' based on its strong project pipeline and imminent upsides from the GVK Slum Rehabilitation Scheme (SRS) and upcoming special economic zones (SEZs). HDIL has presence across all key segments — residential, commercial, retail, SEZs and particularly SRS. Presence in the prime Mumbai property market adds to its advantage. HDIL has development pipeline of approximately 120 million sq ft (excluding GVK SRS and SEZs). "HDIL is trading at a significant 45% discount to our NAV estimate of Rs 444 billion (Rs 44,400) or Rs 2,076 per share. Based on our financial year (FY) 2008 expected (E), FY09E and FY10E EPS estimate of Rs 39.4, Rs 67.6 and Rs 92.2, it trades at a price-to-earning multiple of 28.9, 16.9 and 12.4 times, respectively. We expect revenue and earnings CAGR of 56% and 53% respectively over the next three years," the brokerage said in a note to clients. Over the next three years, profit margins are expected to remain high in the range of 43-47%, as it is using completion method of accounting, which leads to higher margins getting booked in the coming years on the projects currently under execution.
 
Exide Industries

Target price: NA


CLSA is positive on Exide Industries, as it feels the company has strong growth potential in the retail market. The French broking house says that the rights issue will ensure sufficient funds for its growth plan and investments in the insurance venture without any increase in debt. It feels that acquisition of a lead smelter in Maharashtra will help in key sourcing of raw material in the medium term. Describing it as its top picks in the mid-cap universe, it has valued Exide's stake in ING Vysya Life at Rs 16 per share, based on FY09 estimates and net of this, the stock is trading at 16.5 times FY 2009 . "With pick up in retail sales, Exide's volume growth will remain strong for the next two years. In FY07, while sales grew 35%, volume growth was 20%. Revenue growth is ahead of volume growth due to higher lead prices," the brokerage said in a note. Exide has submarine battery orders till March 2009 and this would enable it to maintain its margins even in an environment of high lead prices. Exide is one of the five companies globally with capability to make batteries for both Russian and German submarines. It, however, maintains that a sharp increase in lead price remains the key risk for the company.
 
Karuturi Networks

Target price: NA


Macquarie Research has termed Karuturi Networks as an 'emerging leader' based on the potential for huge international demand for fresh cut flowers. It feels that the growth of an organised retail industry in India (which is currently in a nascent stage of development) may lead to strong growth potential for cut-rose producers.

The stock is currently trading at 18 times trailing 12 months EPS based on historical earnings. The global supply-demand mismatch is considered to be positive for rose producers. Rise in per capita income and strong demand during festivals and Valentine's Day are fuelling huge flower consumption in India. "The Indian floriculture sector is estimated to expand 40% each year (significantly higher than the global average) and almost 85% of the demand is estimated to be from roses," said the brokerage in its note to clients. On the downside, it says that any major epidemic or failure of monsoons may affect production of roses. Also an international ban on imports from India/Ethiopia due to the outbreak of an epidemic or political instability could affect growth in revenue.
 
Panacea Biotech

Target price: Rs 513


Merrill Lynch says investors should 'buy' the stock as Panacea's increased revenue visibility due to recent doubling of vaccine capacity (to 2 million doses) will drive growth. According to the brokerage, the stock is at a significant 25-30% discount to the sector average and valuations are attractive at 12 times FY09E and 9.5 times FY10E EPS. It says that the company has got WHOnod for two vaccines and may get pentavalent approval shortly. The combined demand of all combination pediatric vaccines worldwide was $600 million in 2005 and is estimated to grow up to $1.6 billion by 2012.
 

Sumedha Fiscal-Going For Broking

Sumedha Fiscal Services-Playing The Broking Card
BSE 530419; CMP Rs 22

-Sumedha Fiscal Services is a member stock broker of the NSE-Capital Market and FNO segments.

-At Rs 14 crore of market capitalisation, Sumedha is perhaps the cheapest broking outfit quoting on the BSE.

-Sumedha had marginal profits of Rs 85 lakh in FY07, and has exceeded that figure in the First Half of FY08 with after tax profits of Rs 85 lakh.

-At present, apart from its Calcutta office, the firm runs 8 other branch offices across the length and breadth of the country.

-The Promoters who happen to be Chartered Accountants, hold 53 per cent of the Rs 6.6 crore Equity, with another 7 shareholding 16 per cent of the Equity.

-Equity ownership is concenterated in a few hands, and stock supply is likely to come in from small shareholders.

-Sumedha Fiscal came onto the Dividend list in FY07 with a 5 per cent dividend pay-out and with better business growth should raise this pay-out in FY08.

-Sumedha Fiscal is currently empanelled with most of the FIs, MFs, Banks and Corporate Groups which implies the scalability of business and growth in the coming years.

-With increased focus on arranging corporate finance, IPO management and Advisory Services, the corporate seems willing to broaden the Revenue stream.

-Almondz Securities, JRG, Khandwala, LKP Merchant and larger brokers like MOST and Edelweiss are getting rich valuation on the bourses, reflecting strong business conditions.

-There seems little reason to believe that Sumedha will not be able to scale up and grow its business in the coming years and from a price of Rs 22, there would seem to be little downside but for a major reversal in the Equity markets.

Alps Industries Ltd Short Term Target

Alps Industries Ltd.

Segment: EQ NSE Code: ALPSINDUS
Paidup Value :10
Face Value: 10
Market Lot: 1 ISIN Code
INE093B01015 Listing Date
24-APR-1996
Alert: Stock hits Year High
CMP : 92.30
Short Term Target : Rs 120  Time Frame : 2 months
Long Term Target : Rs 150

 
ALPS INDUSTRIES..EXCELLENT MIDCAP PLAY NOW..STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
Alps Industries is a leading eco-friendly textile products manufacturers and a principal infrastructure player of interior products. The product portfolio of the company includes an eclectic range of home furnishings, sophisticated fashion accessories and high quality yarn.


· The company has a total of 9 manufacturing facilities on a total built-up area of 15 lakh sq. feet, with units located at Ghaziabad (4 units), Uttarakhand (4 units) and one unit at Pondicherry.

· The company has completed expansion of its spinning yarn, which is catering to premium segment of yarn market, by installing 66,000 spindles at Haridwar, which has commenced production from December 07, ahead of schedule by about 6 months. This project had a cost of Rs.330 crores.

· Another project of Rs.63 crores for weaving & processing is being put up. The unit is for weaving of upholstery and decorative furnishing fabrics of 84 lakh square machining fabric processing, which would be operational from July 2008.

· For FY 07, the company posted a total income of Rs.432.56 crores, with EBITDA of Rs.68.12 crores, resulting in a margin of 15.75% with PBT of Rs.35.48 crores and PAT of Rs.30.35 crores, resulting in an EPS of Rs.9.34 on an equity capital of Rs.32.51 crores.

· For H1 FY 08 the total income was at Rs.272 crores with EBITDA of Rs.40.61 crores, resulting in a margin of 14.93% with PBT of Rs.20.08 crores and PAT of Rs.18.56 crores, resulting in an EPS of Rs.5.38 on equity of Rs.34.51 crores.
 

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LATEST SNAPSHOT 83.15 1.4m [87.95 -4.80 (-5.46%)] Jan 8 03:59PM IST
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Date: 8th January 2008 View Fibonacci Technical Chart
High: 92.00 Low: 80.00
Open: 90.00 Value: 11.57 Cr.
Volume: 1356901 10-day Avg. Vol: 673723
52-Week Range (Low - High) : 39.00 - 92.00
Circuit Filters For Next Day: 66.52 - 99.78
STOCK PERFORMANCE
15.09% in 1 Week
40.93% in 1 Month
15.97% in 1 Year
Intraday Chart
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9th January, 08 (83.15) Alps Industries results on Oct 25 (Business Line)
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9th January, 08 (83.15) Alps Inds unit to buy 50 pct stake in U.S. firm (NDTV Profit)
9th January, 08 (83.15) Alps Inds unit to buy 50 pct stake in U.S. firm (Reuters India)
8th January, 08 (83.15) Alps Industries chalks out Rs 400-cr expansion plan (Business Standard)
8th January, 08 (83.15) Alps Industries net profit rises 9% to Rs 7.76 cr (Business Standard)
8th January, 08 (83.15) Alps Ind plans 4-bln-rupee investment in 18 months (NDTV Profit)
8th January, 08 (83.15) Alps Ind plans 4-bln-rupee investment in 18 months (Reuters India)
7th January, 08 ( 87.95) Alps Industries net up 73% (Business Standard)

 

Monday, January 7, 2008

ICICI Direct.com Bandwidth Trouble

Shaji
11/12/07
Unable to Login
Hi All,

I am getting the follwoing error when i try to login....Sometime the
site doesnt open at all... This happens when the market falls or goes
up....I believe the site cannot handle the acceess from all the
customers...

Due to this i lost money many times....

"The page cannot be displayed
The request cannot be processed at this time. The amount of traffic
exceeds the Web site's configured capacity."

R u guys facing any issues like this?

Regards,
Shaji


Sonu
11/23/07
yea...........here today the site is giving problem.......m not able
to get the site logged in
when it is getting the site logging in then trade.asp comes to
download.......when I
download and opens it then technical error comes in saying

Due to technical fault, the page is not displayed correctly. Please
visit the page later.

Finding so much difficulty to get the site logged in.

De Souza
11/26/07
Ya the site is usually slow when there is heavy trading going on….over
use of bandwidth…I prefer using this site in firefox browser
than….internet explorer..

Shaji
11/27/07

Firefox will only help to make loading the images faster. The reason
for the site slowless is the servers are capable of large number of
requests. They need to improve the system capabilities according to
the increase in number of customers

Shaji
12/6/07

Pls....Answer
Are the customers paying to see the message "You cannot login"....
Many times i get the error, the site is unable to handle the load....
This is not a rare scenario now... Almost everyday i have issues with
this site

If ICICI knows that it has reached number of customers the site can
support, why r they adding new customers?

It should add new customers until they are the site can handle a
situation where all the customers are trying to login.

manish
12/10/07

i have posted a complain to ICICI regarding the loss i made in
intraday on 6th due to failure in their website..let us see what they
do reply....i request you all people to please write a complain to
helpdesk@icicidirect.com
if you also suffered any loss on that day and ask for compensation.....

Sonu
Jan 3
@Manish
y so?I bought NTPC @248....but it went down but the icicidirect wasnt
working on that day..so I wasnt able to get @ the price but got it in
the ending...so I didnt square off....it automatically got sell off at
low price........which means loss Jan 4

Sonu
Jan 4

unable to login today also............
says
bea.jolt.ServiceException: TPENOENT - no entry found
when I put in my username and password

Sunday, January 6, 2008

SCI - Recommended by SP tulsian

Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) was established in 1961 by the amalgamation of Eastern Shipping Corporation and Western Shipping Corporation. Two more shipping companies, Jayanti Shipping Company and Mogul Lines Limited were merged with SCI in 1973 and 1986 respectively.

SCI owns and operates about 35% of the Indian tonnage and operates in practically all areas of shipping business servicing both national and international trades.


The company has sketched out plans to infuse about US$ 4 billion for acquiring 72 vessels in the next five years. It is already spending US $ 1 billion to buy 12 vessels, which will be delivered between 2008 and 2010. Resources for the acquisition will be raised through a blend of debt and equity. The company is looking at a debt-equity ratio of 80:20 or 75:25.

Financially, it is one of the most profitable PSUs though, its performance for the first half ended 30th September 2007 slipped down a bit. On a total income of Rs.1904 crore, it posted a net profit of Rs.388.43 crore. Last fiscal, the profits were higher mainly on account of the profit it made on sale of ships.

On an equity of Rs.282.30 crore, its EPS works out at Rs.13.76 for H1 FY08, giving a PE of around 10 on the current price of Rs.295.

The company is sitting on a huge reserves of Rs.4,800 crore, making it a ripe bonus candidate. Moreover, with so many acquisitions and expansions planned, with such huge reserves to dip into, surely this is financial management at its best.

Another major positive factor is the low floating stock. The Government of India owns 80.12% of the shares, the total public holding is 19.88% of which, 16.08% is held by the banks, MF and FIIs, leaving just 3.79% with the Indian public at large. Such low float has seen a good run up in many PSU stocks.

The share at Rs.295 is an excellent bet which could give decent returns over the next 10-12 months.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Free Intraday calls for 6th January 08


( Reliance Natural Resources Limited)

Action Trigger Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE 203

201

206 211
SELL BELOW 200 202 197 191
( Petronet LNG Limited)
Action Trigger Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE 118 116 121 125
SELL BELOW 115 117 113 107
( Jaiprakash Hydro-Power Limited)
Action Trigger Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE 142 140 144 147
SELL BELOW 139 141 136 131

Friday, January 4, 2008

Buy Bombay Rayon Fashion, tgt Rs 554: Networth

Networth Stock Broking has maintaineed buy rating on Bombay Rayon Fashion with target price of Rs 554 in its January 01, 2008 report. "Bombay Rayon Fashions Ltd. (BRFL), the largest manufacturer of designer shirts has emerged as one of the fastest growing companies in India. The net sales and profits of the company have grown at a CAGR of 117% and 174% respectively over the last 2 years. We expect the addition of new capacities and change in product mix to ensure continuation of its robust growth. We have projected the sales and profits to grow at a CAGR of 71% and 80% respectively over FY07-10. At the current price of Rs 359, it trades at a P/E of 28.1x, 13.9x and 7.8x its FY08(E), FY09(E) and FY10(E) EPS respectively. Our DCF valuation of the company gives us a price target of Rs 601. However, taking a conservative approach we have valued the company giving P/Ex of 12 to FY10 EPS of Rs 46.14. We recommend buy on the stock with a one-year price target of Rs 554, an appreciation of 54% from the current level," according to Networht Stock Broking.

Swan Mills: The Swan Spreads It's Wings

Swan Mills: The Sublime Beauty Of A Swan Spreading It's Wings
BSE 503310; CMP Rs 129

Closely held Mumbai based Swan Mills could become a major Real Estate play over the next few months. The stock has all the attributes to fly, the Equity is cornered with 5 shareholders including the Promoters holding 90 per cent of the Equity.

The owners include marquee names like UBS Securities Asia with 3.5 per cent and Bear Stearns (BSMA) owning 1.55 per cent, the Promoters with 80 per cent, Anil Gandhi HUF (1.05 per cent) & Tirupati Agencies (4.31 per cent).

The following is the roster for growth:

A.Realty in Mumbai:

Swan Mills is developing its two properties in Mumbai into Residential and Commercial complexes, with approx 70 per cent of the area under development at Sewri having been sold till date.

B.Commercial Project in Ahmedabad:

The project is to acquire and redevelop an existing structure in the city of Ahmedabad where total commercial development of around 5 lacs saleble sq. ft. is possible. The property has been acquired in the name of a SPV registered in Gujarat. The final projections are under preparation and expected to be finalized by and of this financial year.

C.Development in Goa:

Swan Mills has entered into an MOU to acquire approx 100 acre land in Goa from private owners to develop Special Sector - IT SEZ. However, the entire project is in the initial stage, once the acquisition process is completed, the Company will have a final projection for the development.

D.Textile Processing Unit:

The Company has acquired land in Ahmedabad with a plan to put up a Textile Fabric Processing unit. The project is under in house technical feasibility study considering with or without benefit of TUF and in the meanwhile, the Company has approached financial institutes for the necessary financial assistance. It is expected to have the final decision on this activity by and of this year.

 
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