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Friday, February 29, 2008

Oil Surpasses $103 for First Time

Oil Briefly Tops $103 a Barrel for First Time As US Dollar Weakness Draws Investors

Oil prices surpassed $103 a barrel for the first time Friday as persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar and the prospect of lower interest rates attracted fresh money to the oil market.

Prices were supported by comments Thursday from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the American economy is not immediately threatened with stagflation, a combination of economic weakness and rising inflation.

Investors chose to see the comments as confirmation of their beliefs that the Fed will continue cutting interest rates to try to shore up the economy.

Lower U.S. interest rates tends to weaken the dollar, and crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Jaiprakash Associates:-A gem of a star in the infrastructure sector but misunderstood.

 

Recomended to clients just 2 days back.


Scripscan:Jaiprakash Associates
CMP:246
Target:350
Return expected:40%
Duration:4-6 months



Story:The company has been hammered in the the past 40 days.From a high of 500 in january the company has cracked by more than 50% and is presently quoting at 240 odd levels.The company is also probably getting in the Ganga Expressway.They have got the Taj Expressway project, which is a very large project and as part of that project, they will get to develop close to 6,250 acres of land, 5 points across this highway that joins Agra and Noida. This is not there in the valuation as of now currently, it is not reflected and but it is something that will evolve over a period of time.According to the sources, Jaiprakash Associates will shift 45% stake in the Taj Expressway project to another company namely JP Infratech.In explanation the company stated that JP Infratech continues to be a 100 per cent subsidiary of the group.There was a need to boost the authorized capital of JP Infratech from Rs 200 crore to Rs 1,000 crore and Jaiprakash Associates subscribed the additional 35 crore shares at Rs 10 each, which represented 55 per cent of the capital.The company also clarified that it would go ahead with the initial public offering of its power subsidiary JP Power.

There lies no confusion at all and Jp associates should quote at a much higher price in the days to come.The company is also planning to double its cement capacity from 7 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes to become one of the largest players in the cement sector.Investors have panciked and exited the company compltely,buy at low sell at high mantra or even but when others are selling and sell when others are buying may work in these case now.Accumulate the counter as much as u can for limited downside but lot of upsides.



Regards,
Arun
I can be reached at:arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Market Bits - SMS News and Stock Alert Service

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Market Bits - Let these Bits make your money grow.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Sector will boom after Budget'08 - People's View


Sector will boom after Budget'08

Hi friends.....
Here we would like to share ur views about the sector which will boom after budget?.....So kindly drop ur views here.....with specific backup...so that to take probable chance for that sector....Lets share d views.....
 

Fertilizer would rally before n after budget(gues)

My pick would be fertilizers
 
 
IT sector As usual
 
Welcome back bhai ...
As everyone is expecting agriculture related sectors such as fertilizers and irrigation and education related sectors will get a boost ... I'll be looking forward for some good news for export oriented industries and financial services ...
 
 
buy bindal agro
tvs motors
 
 
i too think fertilizers will zoom.....
as current situation in fertilizers is favourable too.....demand is good and supply is less...
and another factor government will probably release good package for farmers....and expectation in duties cut off with agri releated sectors...
 
 
 
Worst effected sector in this crash is power sector. So i feel power will take a rally after budget
 
 
i opt for fertilizers & GMR infra......
 
 
I think they are right.. educational and agricultural sector will be best and my addition is food sector.

source :http://www.gujjubulls.com/blog/kingshare/upcoming-hot-sectors-invest
 
 
Fertilizer
 
 
agriculture and food processing ....power is another bet due to the acute shortage in the country.
 
 
Everyone seems to be gunning for Fertilizer here......

But I feel that Infrastructure will be given a boost............come on! PC is worried about the slacking growth rate............Infrastructure is the way to go!
 
 
fertilizer is hot one.............
 

MAKARAND BHAI............ANY SCRIPT U WLL SUGGEST WLL RALLY POST-BUDGET......

MAYUR GALA

BANK,STEEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE...
 
7:53 pm (10 hours ago)
 
ANY SPECIFIC ONE........
 
omaxe and nagarjuna fertilizers look cool...
 
THANKS BRO......KAL HI KHARIDTA HOON.........
 

Iske Siwa Or Kuchh Nahi Boom Karega

Education

Power

FmCg
 
 
education and fmcg

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Buy Indian Hotel, target Rs 182: HEM Securities

HEM Securities has maintained buy raitng on Indian Hotels with target price of Rs 182 in its February 21, 2008 research report. "Indian hotels and its subsidiaries, collectively known as Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces are a part of the Tata Group. It was incorporated in 1902. The economic activity of the company is Hotels & Restaurant Services. It trades in Rooms/Restaurants and Banquets. The Taj Mahal Palace and Tower, Mumbai started by Jamshedji N Tata in 1903 was the group's first hotel. The concept of palace and heritage hotels was introduced in India by this group. The Fort Aguada Beach Resort, Goa is India's first beach resort. The company has 56 hotels at 37 places across India and 13 international hotels in the Maldives, Mauritius, United Kingdom, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Africa and the Middle East. It has grouped its hotels into Luxury, Leisure and Business categories. The group has a total of 236 restaurants.

 

Valuation

 

"The Indian Hotels with expansion of product portfolio into related offerings viz. luxury residence, wildlife, lodges and spas and expansion in international destination with top of the line luxury and leisure properties is expected to move ahead of its competitors and thereby providing huge growth potential. The stock at the current market price of Rs 128 will trade 20.48 times to its earnings and 3.78 times to its book value and is expected to provide huge upside potential in medium to long term. Therefore, we are initiating 'BUY' signal on the stock with the target price of Rs 182 which is approximately 42% up from the current market price of Rs 128," according to HEM Securities report.  

 

 

For further details click on attachment......

Buy Wockhardt; target of Rs 630: Angel Broking

Angel Broking has recommended buy rating on Wockhardt with a target of Rs 630 in its February 21, 2008 report. "Wockhardt posted consolidated Sales and Profits of Rs 762 crore and Rs 106 crore in 4QCY2007 registering a growth of 45% and 21%, respectively. With this, for CY2007, Wockhardt posted consolidated Sales and Profits of Rs 2653 crore and Rs 386 crore registering a growth of 53.4% and 59.8%, respectively. A combination of the company's organic and in-organic initiatives was mainly responsible for the growth in CY2007. During CY2007, the European business clocked an impressive growth of 97% to Rs 1410 crore (Rs 715 crore). Apart from Europe, US also posted robust growth of 64%."

"At the CMP, the stock is trading at 8.5x CY2008E and 7.4x CY2009E FDEPS, which is at a significant discount to its peers. A substantial part of the discount is on account of the high competitive pressures in the Generic space and dependence of the company on its M&A strategy to scale up its Generic business. The stock is quoting at 4.5x EV/EBDITA CY2009E, which is at a significant discount to its peers, which are  trading at 6.5x EV/EBDITA. We believe the stock is available at attractive valuations even after discounting the concerns. Hence, we maintain a Buy on the stock, with an 18-month Target Price of Rs 630," according to Angel Broking research report.

 

Free Intraday Tips for 25th February 08


Chart ( Peninsula Land Limited)

Action Trigger Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE 98 96.5 99.5 102
S.SELL BELOW 95.8 97 94.6 92

Chart ( OnMobile Global Limited.)
Action Trigger Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE 540 524 559 585
S.SELL BELOW 519 527 500 470
 
Chart ( GTC Industries Ltd)
Action Trigger Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE 480 465 509 540
S.SELL BELOW 458 470 435 390

Reliance Power approves Bonus Issue

The Reliance Power Board has approved a bonus issue of 3:5 shares, which essentially means that the company will issue 3 shares for every 5 held. Chairman, Anil Ambani says that the bonus share issue is only for non-promoters.

The company says that the number of retail shareholders have increased in the last 10 days. The bonus is said to reduce IPO cost to Rs 269 for retail investors, to protect dilution of REL stake in Reliance Power. REL will be compensated by making up 2.6% from Ambani's own stake.

 

Ambani said that his personal stake in Reliance Power has been diluted to 40% versus 45%. He added that the public will hold 15% in Reliance Power.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Bhagwati Banquets & Hotels Ltd:-The dark horse in the hospitality sector with multibagger potential

 

Recomended to clients just 2 days back.

Scripscan:Bhagwati Banquets & Hotels Ltd
Cmp:63
Target:100
Duration:4-6 months
Traded in:Nse-Bse


Business contributor:Bhagwati Banquets derives revenues from three major sources.Presently more than 1/3rd of its revenues comes from the banquet facility, 25% comes from club management and the rest from outdoor catering. The prime is the Banquets Hall facility and the company has also got four halls in Ahmedabad.BHagwati has been doing club management for three major clubs namely Rajpath Club, Karnavati Club, GCAC and the revolving restaurant called Patang".As these are seasonal businesses, if one of the businesses gets affected, the other two businesses can support them.The company has 1,000 people, consisting of 10 master chefs and a catering staff of 650 for Ahmedabad and 45 for Surat.

Company vision:The company has set a target to set up 5-star hotels in Ahmedabad,Jaipur,Hyderabad,Lucknow and Mumbai in the coming 10-12 years.It is also evaluating several proposals to acquire property for its new hotel at Ahmedabad. These company dreams really big and if it can acheive its desires then Bhagwati banquets can just become one of the scrips to watch out for in the days to come.

A catering player to boost your wealth:You have been invited to a wedding ceremony or a party or say in any occasion and yup our "Bhagwati banquets" is there to satiate all your desires but at an expense.It charges from Rs 350 to Rs 900 a meal and provides personalized service.A minimum order has to be for 300 people (off-season) and 500 in season, resulting in revenue ranging from Rs 1 lakhs--4.5 lakhs on each order.It would be prudent to note that the catering business generates free cash, as it receives payments in cash and obtains credit from its suppliers. Hence, the working capital required is low.What a satisfaction folks-Just consider,You are the owner of the company and your freind has hired your company for all the meal and party arrangements.

5-star hotel at Surat:The company is setting up a 5-star hotel at Surat with 65,000 square feet (two halls of 32,500 square feet each) a convention and banqueting hall to accommodate at Least 3,000 people at a time for any event.This hotel will have 100 rooms (deluxe, suites and a presidential suite).It will have two large banquet halls, which can be partitioned into smatter halls as required, to accommodate at Least 3,000 people.The hotel will also have a business center with boardroom, conference rooms, world-class spa, pub, discotheque, etc.The hotel is likely to commence operations in FY10.It expects Rs 50 crores in revenue and Rs 15 crs in operating profit from the Surat hotel in the first year of operation.The typical room rate in Ahmedabad is Rs 5,000 per day and average occupancy is 75-80%.Though construction project is already in process but any delay in implementing the Surat project might affect profitability.


Wow,so much,anything else its planning:-Watch out...........

1)It has already commenced catering services in Mumbai and plans to branch out to other cities like Jaipur,Jodhpur etc.

2)It has futher plans to enter into tie-ups with clubs for providing its services.

3)It plans to serve companies and MNCs, BPO centres, shopping malls, cinema halls, etc. catering for them and providing food packs.

4)The company plans to develop a separate club adjoining the surat hotel,resulting in additional revenues and thus an increase in profits.

Facts to comfort:Its global india and companies having unique business models gave tremendous capital appreciation in the last few years.Few of the notable examples being Educomp,aurion pro,mic tech,Opto circuits,country club and many more.Bhagwati is a tremendously agggresive company and it has got a monopolistic business with high operating profit margin ratio.

Very recently, Morgan Stanley Mauritius bought 467,500 shares at Rs 84 a share and The GMO Emerging Illiquid M. bought 271,000 shares at Rs 82 a share of Bhagwati Banquets and Hotels.The company is expected to find many more renowned takers because of its unique and monopolistic business.

Whats most inspiring is the main promoter of the company and the largest stake holder,Mr Narendra somani-one of the finest vision oriented man bought nearly 13 lakh 50 thousand shares of his own company from open market purchases in the last 2-3 quarters.

Conclusion:In April '07, Bhagwati came out with a public issue of 2.3 crs shares at Rs 40 each, aggregating Rs 92 crs.Simultaneosly equity capital then rose–-from Rs 6.3crs to Rs 29 crs.The issue got decent response and was oversubscribed.The catering service has done well in the past five years. The number of meals supplied per day has jumped from 200/300 in FY03 to 1,500/2,000 in FY07.At the CMP of Rs 63,the stock trades at 8x FY09E EPS of Rs 8.A great business model backed by a very strong and ambitious pedigree,a market leader with hardly any competition,A pure play on indian consumption and growth story,anything else is required to ventitale for inspiring?To me its a great buy at the present levels.



Regards,
Arun
I can be reached at:arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Buy Grabal Alok Impex:-The next emperor of the indian textile industry

Scripscan:-Grabal Alok Impex Ltd
Bse code:-532909
CMP:99
Target:200
Duration:9-12 months
Expected return:100%



Introduction:-Grabal Alok Impex Limited (Grabal Alok), part of the Alok Group, is amongst the largest global manufacturers of embroidered products. Grabal Alok is a well known name in the Indian embroidery market and is mainly an export oriented company.The company has a wide product range within the embroidered fabrics segment which includes edgings, allovers on any base fabrics and embroidery designs which find usage in dresses of African & Arabian Nationals besides Indian sarees and salwar kameez.The company is also a preferred supplier to the key garment & made-ups exporters and has presence in the indian market through wholesalers & retailers.Over the past few years Grabal has established its direct presence in Africa and some EU countries .The company has created it own markets and is also benefiting from its increased participation in international fairs.Much of the companies current production is sold to the big export houses for sale to Gulf, Africa and European countries.

Assitance of Alok industry:-Grabal Alok has close synergies with Alok Industries which currently has the best processing facilities in the country. Alok is the naturally preferred supplier of fabrics to Grabal. Besides, Grabal sends the unprocessed fabrics to Alok on jobwork basis.Grabal is uniquely placed in the international markets on accounts of its ability to manufacture the Swiss quality (of highest regard) embroidery at Indian prices. Besides the latest technology in embroidery, Grabal is also a beneficiary of the highend processing offered by Alok. The modern processing technology including the soft flow processing made available by Alok, enables Grabal to make the best quality embroidered goods.Essentially, it also has a key focus to expand on the home textiles front,thanks again to its strong pedigree in Alok Industries.The newer additions to the product portfolio serves the dual benefits of diversification as well as higher margins. Grabal certainly will be able to cater to a sizable requirements from Alok in the home textiles segment.

'QS'acquisition:-During FY 2006, the company through its wholly owned subsidiary Grabal Alok International Ltd.(GAIL.)has taken 20.09% stake in Hamsard 2353 Ltd.,(HS) a UK based retail chain having 207 retail outlets across England,Scotland and Wales.These stores are run under the brand name 'qs'.The stores offer value for money ranges of garments for women, men, children and home ware.The stake has since increased to 75% in HS in FY 2008 at an aggregate cost of GBP 16.37 mn.HS also stands renamed as Grabal Alok (UK) Ltd(Grabal- UK).

The company has adopted a multi pronged strategy to improve the performance of Grabal-UK:

i)Change the sourcing of merchandise from UK and other European countries to India, China and other low cost Asian countries.Grabal-UK has also opened sourcing offices in Mumbai, New Delhi and Tirupur in India and also in Bangladesh China and Sri Lanka.

ii) Enhancing the management band width by inducting professionals to manage the operations.

iii)Refurbishing of the stores and improving brand image.

iv) Introduction of New Products and shift towards a profitable product mix and reduction in expenses.

Locational advantage:-Grabal alok enjoys a noteworthy locational advantage as its manufacturing facilities are concentrated in the Navi Mumbai and Silvassa region.The raw materials requirements of the company are met from the Vapi - Silvassa textile belt.The export oriented company also gets the benefits of proximity to the ports.

Indian embroidery market:-Indian embroidery market is growing both on the domestic and the export fronts at an estimated CAGR of 14%. India is expected to be the second largest supplier of embroidered products after China.Embroidery being a labour intensive industry, India has the competitive advantage in terms of skilled and relatively low cost labour - for Grabal Alok Impex Ltd. and most of the Asian manufacturers cost of labor is 5% of sales; for European manufacturers it would be around 30%-40% of the sales.

Prospects:-The prospects for the domestic market are very promising with a healthy GDP growth, rapidly increasing middle income group accompanied by a rise in aspirations and purchasing power.The per capita textile consumption is expected to increase to 30 meters by 2010 from the present level of about 20 meters. The same should propel humangous growth in domestic textile market to USD 50 bn by 2010 from the present USD 33 bn(CAGR of 9% p.a).

Industry Outlook:-The Indian textile industry after long time is again being perceived as a sunrise industry, thanks to the removal of quotas in December 2004 and the booming Indian economy.Since removal of quotas, textile manufacturing is continuing to shift from high cost western economies like USA, Europe to low cost Asian countries like China and India. This is resulting in increase in global textile trade which is expected to grow from USD 480 billion in 2005 to USD 650 billion by 2010.It should be also prudent to note that,"India's exports are expected to grow from the present level of USD 19 bn to USD 45 bn by 2010".

Expansion Projects:-The company possesses amongst the most modern and versatile embroidery facilities consisting of 21 Schiffli machines, 14 Multihead machines and 1 Quilting machine out of its two plants situated at Mahape, Navi Mumbai and Vasona, Silvassa. Over a period, the company has developed goodwill for its superior quality, versatile product range and strong designing capabilities and has created a wide and niche customer base and enjoys an order book position of over 4-5 months.To meet the growing demand for its products and widen its market, the company has undertaken expansion of its embroidery manufacturing capacity in phased manner.

Phase I:-Under the Phase I of expansion project, the company has installed 4 Lasser make Schiffli embroidery machines and 16 Barudan make Multihead machines at its existing unit at Silvassa. This has increased the embroidery manufacturing capacity by 7015 mn stitches p.a. and total capacity to 16263 million stitches p.a. The total cost of project has been funded by a term loan of Rs. 20 crores from State Bank of India under TUFS and balance by internal accruals.

Phase II:-Under Phase II,company is increasing its embroidery manufacturing capacity by 17737 mn stitches p.a. at Silvassa taking the total embroidery capacity to 34000 mn stitches p.a.The company is installing 60 single deck Lasser maker Schiffli embroidery machines and 30 Multi head embroidery machines at an estimated cost of Rs.150 crores. The same is being financed by a term loan of Rs. 115 crores under TUFs and balance by internal accruals.

Entrance of Reliance:-Few months back sonata investments,a subsidary of reliance capital entered the counter by buying out huge quantities(over 10 lakh shares at a price range 118-131) through numerous bulk deals.It entails tremendous confidence as we all are aware of the brand name of reliance.With reliance looking to magic again with "Vimal",i cant rule more equity participation by the large behemoth.If that happens the company should see itself in a new orbit.Given the strong prospects of the Indian textile industry and the ideal positoning of the company, the future looks extreamly bright.

Risks and the solutions:-

Risk of Competition:The company is subject to competition both in the domestic and international market.

Solution)The company since inception focused technology, quality, innovation and attaining right size. Today it has a large and loyal customer base in domestic as well as overseas market and enjoys on an average a healthy order book position of 4-5 months.It is also geographically expanding its market reach.

Risk of Currency fluctuation:-With increasing exports, the company is subjected to adverse fluctuations in the foreign currency.

Solution)The company relies on a combination of external advise through a reputed consultant and in house treasury department to manage the currency risks.

Risk of Interest rate hike:The company's debt profile is primarily on a floating interest rate and hence vulnerable to interest rate hikes.

Solution)The company's long term borrowings for expansion projects are under Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme, at a concessional rate of interest. The company through suitable financial instruments like Foreign Currency packing credit, CP linked rates etc., reduces the interest cost on the working capital front.

Conclusion:-The company ranks amongst the large embroidery players in the world.Market diversification, capacity expansions and synergies with Alok to auger well to elevate Grabal's performance over the coming years.Grabal stands tall in terms of efficiency, reduced downtimes and quality besides being the most reputed player in the industry using the most modern machineries.Also the ambitious acquisition of UK retail chain lends an ideal platform for the company to widen its global presence.I expect the company to create considerable value by turning around the performance of Grabal -UK.

Valuation&Recomendation:-The company has de-risked its business operations over the past few years.The CMP of Rs. 99 discounts the FY09E earnings by 11x.Turnover is expected to bloster to 175-180crs in 09 from 93crs on 07.The company has been overlooked by the retail fraternity just for no reason.Textile sector on a whole never really performed over the last 2 years.But i am talking about a company which is one of the world leaders in its business.I am talking about a scrip which is doing every stuff needed to position itself in the top few league.I am recomending something which has been a institutional favourite backed by a strong pedigree with a great business model.The company has consolidated for a fairly long time in the bourses and now with things looking up,"Maybe the shareholders of grabal alok are here in for gala days".Go for it guys and enrich your lives .



Regards,
Arun
I can be reached at:arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

A Fact About Indian Stock Market

Dow has corrected only from 14k to 11.5k max
because of its own dometic reasons.

thats a 17.8% fall from lifetime highs!


But Indian Markets from 21206 to 15336!
thats a 27% cut,
FOR NO VALID REASONS.

CRUDE,
INFLATION,
INTEREST RATES,
POLITICAL SITUATION,
CORPORATE PERFORMANCE,

Etc all have been only improving (touch wood)

Imagine a scenario where there was a reason to fall...........................

REMEMBER:
A fall without a reason is simply put: A BUY!!

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Infosys Technologies Ltd

Free Intraday Tips for 11th February 08
Chart ( Reliance Natural Resources Ltd)

Action Trigger Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE 150 147 155 162
SELL BELOW 145 149 143 138
( Click here for more recommendations of stocks below Rs.150 )
Chart ( Infosys Technologies Ltd)
Action Trigger Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE 1555

1535

1590 1630
SELL BELOW 1525 1540 1500 1440
Chart ( Hindustan Unilever Limited)
Action Trigger Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
BUY ABOVE 212 206 217 224
SELL BELOW 204 207 201 190

Buy Cadila Healthcare : Recommendation from Angel Broking

Cadila Healthcare

CMP: Rs 248

Target Price: Rs 450

Domestic brokerage Angel Broking has initiated a 'buy' on pharma major Cadila Healthcare. It says that the company is trading at significant discount to its peers. During the third quarter of 2008, Cadila posted a 22% growth in net sales mainly on the back of a robust 47% growth in formulation exports.

The company's domestic branded formulation business, on the other hand, posted a 10% growth to Rs 262 crore. "At the CMP of Rs 263 (at the time when report was released), the stock is trading at 10.5 times financial year (FY) 2009 expected and 8.6 times FY2010 expected earnings, which is at a significant discount to its peers." The report, however, expressed concern on its overdependence on Altana.

Yet says that new client additions in the segment would aid de-risking and reduce the company's dependence on the same. Along with this, the stock has also corrected significantly to discount the same

Ambuja Cements Sell Recommendation from Morgan Stanley

Ambuja Cement

CMP: Rs 116

Target Price: Rs 85

Morgan Stanley has maintained 'underweight' on Ambuja Cement (ACL) largely on concerns of a slowdown in revenues and increasing margin pressures.

"We reiterate our underweight rating on Ambuja and expect the company to continue to post disappointing numbers in the coming quarters as pricing would be under pressure and costs will escalate," said the brokerage in a note to its clients.

The company has reported another quarter of disappointing numbers with revenues growing only by 16.5% year-on-year at Rs 1,700 crore. While the stock has underperformed, it continues to trade significantly above replacement cost.

"We continue to believe that the slowdown in margins over the next couple of quarters will worsen as the Y-o-Y pricing growth remains too small to cover the rising costs, before pricing growth itself turns negative in financial year 2009," it adds

Investment Ideas - ICICI direct

Granules net profit in Q2FY08 (the company follows a June-year ending) was drastically hit by the rupee appreciation. However, top line registered a marginal growth rate of 5% to Rs 52.94 crore. Bottom line slipped 25% to Rs 2.28 crore (more than our expectations) on account of a 246 bps y-o-y decline in EBIDTA margin to 14.11%.


PTC India result for Q3FY08 was below expectations. During the quarter under review, revenues from operations declined 9.12% y-o-y to Rs 733.79 crore. Traded power units were down 9% to 2009 million units due to lower volumes from the Tala Hydroelectric Power Plant in Bhutan as well as a fall in surplus volumes from the Himachal Pradesh State Electricity Board.

Wipro results for the Q3FY08 were lower than our estimated 13.5% q-o-q growth with the global IT and products business recording an 11.4% q-o-q growth in rupee terms to Rs 3597 crore. Consolidated profit after tax was also lower than our estimates on account of lower than expected margins for Infocrossing (7.2% as compared to our estimates of 12%).
 
JK Cement net sales during Q3FY08 increased 22.24% to Rs 391.8 crore against Rs 320.5 crore in the corresponding quarter the previous year. PBIDT increased 31.51% to Rs 118.1 crore against Rs 89.8 crore in Q3FY07. Grey cement volumes were up 4.16% from 0.96 million tonnes in Q3FY07 to 1 million tonnes in Q3FY08.

Cinemax India results were below our expectations. Rollout delays and with lower occupancy levels (32%) resulted in a flat top line growth of only 4.9% q-o-q to Rs 27.6 crore. EBIDTA margins also declined 631 bps, impacted by higher entertainment taxes at the new properties, higher employee cost due to yearly bonus, and higher-than-expected lease rentals.


ACC sales for the quarter ended Dec 31, 2007 (Q4CY07) increased 10.8% to Rs 1763.73 crore against Rs 1592.33 in the corresponding quarter the previous year. The improvement was on account higher sales volumes and improved realizations.

Yes Bank : Budget Target


Reco price: Rs 244.25
Current market price: Rs 253.60
Target Price: Rs 310
Brokerage: Merrill Lynch
Upside: 22%


Yes Bank's Q3 FY08 earnings (up 116 per cent y-o-y) were 8-10 per cent ahead of the brokerage's expectations driven by 88 per cent rise in top line, 114 per cent jump in non-interest income and margins holding steady q-o-q. The growth was driven by 79 per cent y-o-y loan growth.

Net non-performing loans (NPLs) were nil. Merrill Lynch raised its earnings forecast for Yes Bank by 4-9 per cent for FY08-10, as it believes that the bank is better positioned to expand its current and savings accounts (CASA) levels to almost 15 per cent from 8 per cent currently, as it begins to expand its branch distribution.

This should positively impact margins and the proposed capital raising (Yes Bank is planning to raise Rs 500 crore in the next 6 months) should help sustain loan growth at over 50 per cent through FY10, albeit from a very low base.

The brokerage believes that the bank, which trades at 4.3-4.5 times estimated FY09 adjusted book value, could trade at these multiples one year forward owing to its high earnings growth trajectory, rising return on equity (ROE) to over 25 per cent (pre-dilution) by FY10. Its excellent asset quality (no non-performing loans), and its attractive positioning make it a potential takeover target.

Jain Irrigation : Budget Target


Reco price: Rs 631.25
Current market price: Rs 622
Target Price: Rs 762
Brokerage: Morgan Stanley
Upside: 22%


Strong growth momentum in micro irrigation and fruits and vegetables processing continues to remain the driver for Jain Irrigation. Margins have expanded by 270 basis points in nine months ended December 2007, to 18.6 per cent led by faster growth in mircro irrigation that now comprises 33 per cent of Jain's revenues (standalone) against 28 per cent in previous corresponding period.

Morgan Stanley believes that micro irrigation and fruits and vegetables will continue to lead revenue growth and higher proportion of micro irrigation business will drive margin expansion. The stock is currently trading at 27 times estimated FY09 earnings and 20 times estimated FY10 earnings. The brokerage rates the industry as "attractive", and the stock "overweight", with a target price of Rs 762.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Recent IPO Subscription Details and Listing News

Reliance Power IPO Listing Date and Price

Reliance Power IPO Listing Date has been announced.

Reliance Power, part of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani group which recently completed its largest IPO in the history of Indian capital market, will debut on the stock exchanges on the February 11, 2008

Listing Price is the most expected now.Many brokerages put it at 600.RS to 700.RS

 


Emaar MGF IPO Subscription


Emaar MGF IPO has been subscribed by 30% till now.Final Figures will be out soon.Allotment appears sure , but listing price is expected to be low.

Watch this space for Emaar MGF IPO Allotment and allocation status


IRB Infra IPO Subscription

IRB Infra IPO subscribe 5 times

IPO of IRB Infrastructure Developers was subscribed 3.56 times till 7.00 p.m. on Tuesday, closing day. The company received 219.40 million bids as against issue size of 51.05 million shares. The price band has been fixed between Rs 185 to Rs 220 a share.


SVEC Constructions IPO Subscription

SVEC Constructions IPO subscribed 1% on day 2

Rural Electrification IPO

Tulsi Extrusions IPO subscribeD 2.08 times

Wockhardt Hospitals IPO subscription

Wockhardt Hospitals IPO subscribe 10% on day 4

Guess Wockhardt IPO is in trouble.


V-Guard Industries IPO opens on Feb. 18

Cochin-based V-Guard Industries is all set to tap the capital markets via an initial public offering (IPO) of 8 million equity shares of Rs 10 each for cash, at a price to be decided through a 100% book building process. The issue will open on February 18 and will close on February 21. The price band has been fixed between Rs 80 to Rs 85 a share.

The issue has been graded by Crisil with an IPO Grade 3, indicating average fundamentals, to the proposed IPO of V-Guard Industries. The net issue to public will constitute 25.46% of the fully diluted post issue paid-up capital of the company

 

Buy Patni Computers in Short Term : Patni Buy Back Shares @ Rs 325

Script : Patni Computers
CMP : Rs269
Target : Rs320
Reason : Patni Computers to Buy Back Shares
Upside : 20% surely guarenteed
 
India-based Patni Computer Systems Ltd  posted net income for the fourth quarter at US$25.3 million, or Rs.997.2 million, 1.7% lower than US$25.7 million, last year.

Earnings per share for the quarter were unchanged from the prior year at US$0.18 per share, or US$0.36 per ADS.

On average, eight analysts polled by First Call/Thomson Financial expected the company to report earnings of $0.26 per share for the quarter.

Revenues for the quarter stood at US$174.1 million, Rs.6,861.9 million, 12.9% up from US$154.3 million in the prior year.

Seven Wall Street analysts had a consensus revenue estimate of $ 170.59 million for the quarter.

The company also announced that its Board has recommended an annual dividend of 150%, as well as the repricing of outstanding Employee Stock Options at current market price.

The Board has also approved a share buyback program in the open market purchases on the Indian Stock Exchanges, with prices up to Rs.325 a share, for a total purchase up to US$60 million.

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2008, the company expects revenues to be between US$175 and US$176 million.

Net income, excluding the foreign exchange gain/loss, is estimated to range from US$ 15.5 million from US$16 million.

Analysts, on average, expect the company to earn $0.34 per share on revenues of $ 176.08 million for the quarter.

 

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Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Stock market:Analysis of IT,Automobile,Textile,Fertilizer,Power,Telecom,Power equipment and Metals in short Term

Analysis of some important sectors in short:-

1. IT Sector: Due to strong rupee, earnings growth of IT companies has slowed down and hence, leading IT scrips have been underperforming. Since, rupee is unlikely to weaken in near future, IT companies will not report outstanding growth

2. Automobile sector: This sector is already witnessing slowdown in growth. Further, rising metal prices will not allow big profit growth and hence, vauations of this sector are not compelling anymore. Further, no sharp growth is expected in this sector for next 1-2 years at least

3. Textile Industry: This sector is passing thruough one of the worst times. Even if Govt doles out any benefits, it wont lead to significant improvement in its dire position. In fact, textile industry may post dismal results for next 2-3 quarters

4. Fertlizer sector: Share price of many fertilizer stocks had been ramped up brazenly althoughthis sector has always underperformed. Even Govt is coming with some new policy for this industry, fertilizer industry should not expect any path-breaking changes and fortunes/profits of fertilizer companies may change only in a minor way.

5. Power sector: This sector has witnessed never-before ( and i pray never-again) hype which led to mindless valuations

6. Telecom sector: Yes this sector continues to exhibit big growth. But companies at PE Ratio of 40-60 are not screaming buy

7. Power equipment industry: Valuations of this sector still appear to be attractive (comparatively)

8.Metals: Prices of various metals have already risen steeply and further rise may be very slow and infact, there can be even reaction in metal prices. Hind zinc has already reported huge decline in its profits.




Regards,
Arun
I can be reached at: arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

HBL Power Systems:-The scrip to rock in the coming days

Suggested very recently to members at 350rs.Everybody sud make money be it subscribers or my blog visitors.Here u go.



Scripscan:HBL Power Systems Ltd
CMP:349
Target:560
Returns expected:60%
Duration:6 months
Traded in Bse-nse


Introduction:HBL power is engaged in the business of making specialised batteries, electronics and DC power systems and caters to a variety of end-user requirements across industries.The customer segments include telecom, railways, defence, power, solar energy, petroleum, oil and gas, and uninterrupted power supply systems.

"10 points which justifies and favours my bullishness in the scrip".

1)A secured communications product,(a gateway encryptor) developed by HBL has passed all the tests required and is likely to be used widely by several government agencies,beginning early 2008.The product can prove to be a blockbuster for the company.

2)The company made 2 bids during early 2007 for defence electronics contracts, totaling over 500 crores. The time lines in defence are such that the final result will be known only in end of 2008.The products are already in field trials.Further, Its JV with IAI-ELTA of Israel has commenced exports recently.Two bids were made by the JV to the Ministry of Defence.Results may be known in mid 2008.

3)Railway field trials for signaling products developed by the company commenced late and has just been completed,Almost a year behind expected schedule.Orders are expected to pour in going ahead.Also,Several export enquiries have been received by the company for contract manufacturing of Power Electronics equipment.The management sounded very confident in bagging at least one of the significant orders these year.

4)The batteris market share for the company in Telecom segment continued to be about 50% and its growing all the time.New markets for Military use (Thermal, Reserve and Torpedo batteries) have emerged last year mostly in the international markets, these are ultra high specialties with very few producers in the world. The number of export customers for passenger and military aircraft batteries has also grown for the company.

5)The companys main raw material Nickel prices had gone up to unprecedented levels last year but have already declined considerably.Lead prices seem to have hit their peak in mid July 2007,and appears to be coming down.The both factors should further boost the bottomline for the company.

6)The management expects to increase its margins as each and every contracts of the company are now on variable cost and the price hike has been pass on to the clients.Last year the company faced several problems because of the high volatility of input cost prices, this fiscal they have given a decent check in managing the raw material procurements.

7)In these sort of competitive environment where most companies are struggling to grow by 20-25%,Hbl is going to double its turnover and Profit these fiscal.The company has guided a turnover of in excess of 1000crs these year vs 511crs last year.Profit after tax should touch around 70crs vs 32crs last fiscal.It should be prudent to note that the company guided 500crs revenue in 07 and ended up doing 511crs.

8)Further the company is expected to post turnover worth 1650crs in 09 and profit is expected to inch to around 120crs.Eps for 08 and 09 are expected to be 29 and 50 respectively.At present price of 349 the company is quoting at 12 times its 08 and just 7 times its fy09 earnings.

9)Reliance via its subsidary sonata investments has been holding over 7% stake in the company for quite some time now.Everyone is aware what brand relaince can prove for a company to be and it entails tremendous confidence in the mind of investors.

10)The company as on march 2007 has got over 215crs reserves in its book which is around 9 times its equity capital.Its of one"s easy assumption that HBL remains one of the primate candidates for a liberal bonus issue.If the assumptions vindicates that can certainly as a big trigger for the company.

Conclusion:Given the many opportunities in core applications such as telecom and power, the company has huge growth prospects.At 349rs its quoting at 27 times its 07 trailing earnings,12 times its 08 earnings and just 7 times its 09 earnings.Now folks you certainly can differentiate between 7 and 27,isnt it?Take out your calculator and value the company.I have valued it at 11.2 times its 09 expected earnings and can only say its a screaming buy.



Regards,
Arun
I can be reached at: arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Weaker US Market Cues

Weak US Market CUES. US Market NASDAQ and DOW cracks 3% each
Nifty Support level at 5380. Below 5380 level 5250 may possible
Buying May seen in the later trade

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Monday, February 4, 2008

Reliance Telecom Infrastructure IPO

Anil Ambani's appetite for raising funds from the primary market seems to be insatiable. Barely a fortnight after his Reliance Power completed the country's biggest public issue, another company from the group Reliance Telecom Infrastructure (RTIL) is gearing up to raise nearly Rs 5,000-6,000 crore through an initial public offering.

The company has decided to file the draft red herring prospectus with the market regulator Sebi this week, it is learnt. The list of merchant bankers appointed for the IPO includes J P Morgan, Enam, UBS and ABN Amro.

Bankers close to the development said RTIL will sell nearly 10% of its post-issue share capital through the IPO which will put its valuation more than double of what it achieved in July when it privately placed 5% stake to a group of institutional investors. RTIL, a 95% subsidiary of Reliance Communications (RCOM), sold the stake for Rs 1,400 crore to a host of investors including George Soros, HSBC, Fortress Capital, New Silk, Galleon, DA Capital and GLG Capital in a deal which had put its valuation at Rs 27,000 crore.

Reliance Telecom Infrastructure IPO : Going by the IPO size, the equity valuation of RTIL, a company engaged in the business of building, owning and operating communications towers, will be around Rs 50,000-60,000 crore. This will translate into nearly Rs 250-300 per RCOM share. The RCOM stock closed at Rs 612.15 on Friday on the BSE. When contacted, a spokesperson for the group declined to comment.

RCOM demerged its tower assets in RTIL last year in a move which was followed by most telecom companies in India. RTIL has a presence in all 23 telecom circles in the country. It has a 10-year master services agreement to provide passive telecom infrastructure to RCOM. Additional tenants in the form of external wireless operators on RTIL's towers will provide incremental growth for it.

Bankers found the increase in number of towers responsible for the possible increase in valuation. "RTIL had 14,000 towers across the country when the first stake sale happened in July. Now, it will end up this financial year with 40,000 towers. Also, it plans to add another 20,000 towers next year. With new players getting into the 2G and 3G spaces, the tenancy ratio for every tower is expected to go up to four. In short, the business proposition of the company looks more bright than what it was in July," said a person related to the developments.

RTIL is putting in an investment of Rs 16,000 crore this year and is expected to pump in Rs 8,000 crore more next year. It has a minimum of four tenancy slots and it is in the process of upgrading this to host seven tenants by 2009. It expects to reach the one lakh tenancy figure this week.

Reliance Power, another R-ADAG group company, last week completed the allotment of shares of its Rs 11,560-crore IPO. The issue helped Reliance Power to became India's biggest company in terms of the number of shareholders (42 lakh). RNRL had close to 22.3 lakh shareholders at the end of December 2007, followed by the Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries with close to 20.6 lakh shareholders. Reliance Communications is the fourth-largest in this list with around 19.8 lakh shareholders. Reliance Petroleum has close to 16.9 lakh shareholders.

Buy Jain Irrigation Systems

Jain Irrigation Systems
Research: Morgan Stanley
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 622

Morgan Stanley has retained its 'overweight' rating on Jain Irrigation Systems (JISL). Strong momentum in micro irrigation systems (MIS) and fruits & vegetables (FV) processing continues to drive growth.

Margins have expanded by 270 bps in 9M FY08 to 18.6%, led by faster growth in micro irrigation, which now comprises 33% of JISL's standalone revenues, against 28% in the previous corresponding period. In Q3 FY08, JISL reported standalone revenues of Rs 400 crore (36% y-o-y growth) and EBITDA of Rs 82 crore (75% y-o-y growth).

MIS grew 69% y-o-y to Rs 170 crore, driven by strong growth in all key states. EBITDA margins of the business expanded by 60 bps y-o-y, driving EBITDA growth of 72%. It currently has an MIS order book of around Rs 330 crore, which will largely be executed by March '08.

Agro-processing (AP) grew 76% y-o-y, driven by 170% growth in FV processing to Rs 41.8 crore, while onion dehydration declined 52%. The plastics business grew 11% y-o-y to Rs 200 crore, impacted by lower exports to the US (PVC sheets) and slowdown in domestic PVC pipes business. Morgan Stanley estimates that margins will expand over the next 3-5 years, with faster growth in MIS and earnings growth, which will push up revenues

Buy ICSA India Limited

ICSA (India)  Ltd has been in the forefront of adopting technologies to
ensure customer satisfaction with a suite of embedded solutions
and comprehensive quality Infrastructure, customized for specific
requirements of the Enterprises across a spectrum of Industries
especially Electrical Power, Oil, Gas & Water sectors.
 

ICSA (INDIA) Ltd.

NSE Symbol: ICSA          Sector: Infrastructure 
CMP: Rs 513.80;             12 mth Target : Rs 1000

CMP Target also given at http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/Marketbits

Company Profile

ICSA is a Hyderabad based Mid-Cap company, which provides products and solutions in the Infrastructure space with particular emphasis on Power (Transmission and Distribution). In the last one or two years this fast growing technology driven company has made aggressive inroads into the Oil and Energy sector and also into providing turnkey solutions on an EPC basis for Infrastructure.

Industry Overview

The Indian power sector is plagued by huge losses in Transmission and Distribution, which sometimes goes as high as 50%. It is most essential that these losses are minimized, since that would increase power availability with marginal investment. Keeping this in mind, the Government has launched  a massive scale Accelerated Power Development and Reforms Programme (APDRP) whereby power utilities are funded for investment in reduction of T&D. ICSA is perhaps the most prominent player in this area providing products and services and a huge beneficiary of this Programme.

Pipelines are the lifeline of the Oil and Energy sector since they are the most cost efficient means of transportation for natural gas, crude oil, petroleum products etc. Due to transportation over long distances at high pressure corrosion often takes place leading not only to losses but disasters also. ICSA has developed products and solutions for the prevention and management of these losses. 

Products and Clients

The main products of ICSA are Distribution Transformer Monitoring Systems (DTMR), Theft Detection Devices (TDD), Intelligent Automatic Meter Reading (IAMR), Remote Street Light Control Systems in the Power Transmission and Distribution space. Its Intelligent Cathodic Protection Solutions (ICAP) is a star in the Oil and Gas pipeline space.

ICSA's clients in the power sector include almost all State Electricity Boards and leading private players like Reliance Energy. In the Oil and Energy space, it has huge orders from Oil India and is expected to finalise contracts with several others.

Financial Position

ICSA's growth has been spectacular. For the financial year ended 31 March 2007, ICSA registered a more than 300% increase in turn over from Rs. 81.1 crores to Rs. 332.5 crores. Its profit after tax also went up almost 4 times from Rs. 15.1 crores to Rs. 58.9 crores. During the first 6 months of the present financial year the company has continued its robust growth with the turnover for half year 2007-2008 increasing by more than 100% to Rs. 268 crores. The profit after tax also doubled to Rs. 52.8 crores at which level it was almost close to the entire full year profit of the previous year.

The company split its share from Rs. 10 to Rs.2 and has also done part allotment of FCCB shares.

Concerns

The company may have some slow down in its meteroric growth if investment in the Power T&D slows down. In our view, this is unlikely and even if it does happen the company's diversification into the fast developing Oil and Energy space should compensate for that.

ICSA is an R&D driven company and at some extent it needs to come up with new products and solutions to cater to more sophisticated segments. However, it must be said the company has done well in this area in the last few years.

Recent Updates

ICSA India secures orders 1/30/2008
ICSA India Ltd has informed that the Company has secured following work order(s) for a total contract value of Rs 38.94 Crores from Northern Power Distribution Company of A P Ltd, Warangal on System Improvement Project for supply and erection of 33/11 kv Substations with connected 33 kv & 11 kv lines for the project funded by Japan Bank for International Cooperation on 100% turnkey basis.

- Name of the Work : Supply and erection of 33/11 kv Substations with connected 33 kv & 11 kv lines

- Aggregate value of Contracts: Rs 38.94 Crores.

 

ICSA PAT during the Q3 increased by 25%  

ICSA has developed a new product, Intelligent Cathodic Protection (ICAP), which will find application in Oil & Gas and Water segments.

ICSA has developed a product to remotely control streetlights from the control room, resulting in power, manpower and operational savings for the end users like city municipal corporations.

New product rollouts during the quarter: Agriculture Load Management Unit (ALMU) . Remote Metering for Residential and Hut Consumers (RMRH)

Net Sales has increased from Rs 9484 lakh to Rs 18913 lakh, a growth of 99.43% on YoY basis. PAT has increased from Rs 1814 lakh to Rs 3624 lakh, a growth of 99.83% YoY.

QoQ net Sales has increased from Rs 14623 lakh to Rs 18913 lakh, a growth of 29.34%. Duringn the quater PAT has increased from Rs 2888 lakh to Rs 3624 lakh, a growth of 25.50%

Valuation & Recommendation

ICSA is one of the fastest growing companies in the Power T&D and Oil and Energy space. We see this as an exciting growth play in India's Infrastructure, which is right now attracting huge investor attention. True, the share has run up a lot and given excellent returns to the investors in the last one year but considering the triple digit growth prospects for the next five years and the 2007-08 annualised P/E of 22 based on share split and part conversion of FCCBs, it still has got very good upward potential. We recommend ICSA as an excellent Mid-Cap play with the year-end target of Rs. 1000/-

 

 

 

 
 
 
 

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Warren Buffett and Jim Cramer Speak out on 2008 Stock Market !!

THE GURUS of the stock market world include Warren Buffett, Jim Cramer, Carl Icahn and Jim Rogers. The lesser known gurus such as Alexander Green (Oxford Club), Bill Bonner (The Daily Reckoning) and Stephen Leeb (The Complete Investor) are all pretty much saying the same thing about the stock market in 2008. As oil pricing per barrel hits $100 and
gold soars to $860 per ounce on the futures markets, there is a general cause for caution and concern. The news on the first trading day of the year was not a bull's dream.

The Institute for Supply Management's report that its manufacturing index fell to 47.7 percent for December from 50.8 percent in November raised concerns that the economy could be slowing at a quicker pace than some investors had estimated. The reading below 50 signals economic contraction, whereas readings over 50 indicate expansion.

Analysts polled by Thomson/IFR had anticipated that manufacturing would expand modestly in December.The economic reading and rising oil prices were unwelcome for investors wading into the first trading session of 2008 and indicated the concerns that weighed on stocks in the second half of 2007 will for now persist.

"It certainly is a soft number and the declines in production and new orders are eye-catching," said Alan Levenson, chief economist at T. Rowe Price Associates Inc. "Overall, the ISM has generally been a decent guide for the economy. This is a sharp decline in one month."

Stocks failed to gain momentum after an initial bounce after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting. Central bankers, who voted to raise interest rates a quarter percentage point, called the economic outlook "unusually uncertain." While that strengthened the case for lower rates, it also confirmed some of the market's worst fears about the economy
 
That is what Buffett and Cramer are saying as well. The financial and credit markets are unusually shaky, and the problems facing the housing sector, the mortgage industry and consumer spending are casting a pall of gloom over the many positives that the US economy has to offer.

Buffett, Ichan, Cramer and T.Boone Pickens always "vote with their wallets" and they are buyers. But they know this is a stock-pickers market. "We cannot say with certainty what most averages will do in 2008. Our guess is that the Fed will do what it must to support the economy. As long as the economy does not enter a recession, we are safe from a bear market. Instead, we expect stocks will remain in a trading range, flirting with all-time highs, but never experiencing a broad-based rally. Inflation will prevent a bull market from arising" said one of the gurus.

In a non-verbal way and verbally, Buffett and Cramer are saying "choose your stocks very carefully". They say they are looking for value, with international money to be made, and themes that can withstand a downturn in the economy. That is why they like companies that have similar profiles to Trinity Industries (NYSE:TRN) and Yamana Gold (NYSE:AUY).

As the stock market starts the new year on a sour note, they are looking for bargains, takeover themes like Alcoa (NYSE:AA) and Steel Dynamics (Nasdaq:STLD). The gurus know that the Fed can't afford to be indecisive at such a critical time like the monetary crisis that the western world finds itself in right now. And they know that inflation is upon us and can keep the bull market from going forward in a robust fashion.
 
Bottom line: Do like Buffett and Cramer has often preached with enthusiasm. The first rule of investing is "DON'T LOOSE MONEY" and if there are no screaming bargains and virutual sure-fire winners, then just sit on your hands and do nothing. Cramer said it well, "in times like these I'd rather see you with too much cash than not enough".

BIGGEST MULTIBAGGER IN LAST 3 YEARS !!

 

3 YEARS AGO,

CORE PROJECT :

PRICE AT THAT TIME ---> 0.18
THEN IN 34 MONTHS : 420
RETURN --127126% RETURN (AFTER SPLIT/BONUS)
THOSE WHO HAVE INVESTED 1 LAC 3 YEARS AGO.........HE WOULD GET 229 CRORES !!


JAI CORP

PRICE AT THAT TIME ---> 7
THEN IN 34 MONTHS : 1252
RETURN --24809 % RETURN (AFTER SPLIT/BONUS)
THOSE WHO HAVE INVESTED 1 LAC 3 YEARS AGO.........HE WOULD GET 50 CRORES !!

UNITECH

PRICE AT THAT TIME ---> 7
THEN IN 34 MONTHS : 519
RETURN --24066 % RETURN (AFTER SPLIT/BONUS)
THOSE WHO HAVE INVESTED 1 LAC 3 YEARS AGO.........HE WOULD GET 48 CRORES !!

Friday, February 1, 2008

Brokers Recommendation

Bharti Airtel
Research: HSBC
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 915


Bharti Airtel is one of HSBC's preferred picks in the telecom sector because it believes the stock offers low risk exposure to the domestic wireless sector at attractive valuations. Bharti Airtel, with low operating and financial leverage, offers the best earnings visibility vis-à-vis other domestic telecom companies and trades at FY09E P/E of 18.6x. The current estimates for Bharti Airtel factor in the potential combination of high subscriber growth, low subscriber quality and high capital expenditure (capex). Unlike its peers, for whom EBITDA is likely to be subdued given the new rollouts, Bharti Airtel will continue to benefit from scale through its rising subscriber base. The creation of Indus (tower JV) is a significant catalyst as it allows Bharti Airtel to benefit from lower capex and deeper coverage, while offsetting spectrum constraints and monetising its tower assets. HSBC remains bullish on Bharti Airtel's earnings outlook and forecasts a 25.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings per share (EPS) for FY08-10E. This view is based on robust subscriber growth, recent initiatives to stimulate usage and stable EBITDA margins.
 
Indiabulls Fin Services
Research: Motilal Oswal
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 779


Motial Oswal reiterates its 'buy' rating on Indiabulls Financial Services with a revised target price of Rs 1,086. In its first quarter post-demerger, Indiabulls reported 270% y-o-y and 57% q-o-q growth in loan book to Rs 8,800 crore in Q3 FY08. Disbursements, at Rs 3,300 crore, were the highest ever in any quarter. Though yields declined to 21% due to an increase in secured loans, earnings grew 80% y-o-y. Post the impressive Q3 FY08 numbers, Motilal Oswal is raising its estimates on disbursements and loan book for FY09 and FY10. Indiabulls may disburse loans worth Rs 10,500 crore in FY08, which will increase to Rs 26,000 crore in FY10.

This will result in 143% CAGR in loan book over FY07-10E. But by factoring in lower yields, Motilal Oswal expects the strong growth in loan book and higher fees from processing and insurance distribution to drive earnings growth. Operating efficiencies will also support earnings, which are expected to see CAGR of 81% over FY07-10E. The company has applied for a licence for its life insurance business, which is likely to be launched in Q1 FY09. Despite being a late entrant in this segment, its large customer base and wide distribution network will ensure fast growth. Motilal Oswal values Indiabulls at 3x FY10E book value (17x P/E) and the insurance venture at Rs 100 per share (at 49% stakeBank of India
 
Bank of India
Research: Morgan Stanley
Rating: Overweight
CMP: Rs 395


Morgan Stanley reiterates 'overweight' rating on Bank of India (BoI) with a target price of Rs 525. BoI reported Q3 FY08 earnings of Rs 510 crore, up 101% y-o-y and 20% on a sequential basis — higher than the expectation of 69% y-o-y growth. The bank's core operating profit grew 74% y-o-y on sequential improvement in margins, robust fee income growth and control on operating expenses. In fact, the bank overprovided costs during the quarter — it has proactively provided for wage arrears for FY08 on an estimated basis. Asset quality strength persisted, with BoI's coverage ratio improving to 78% in Q3. Productivity is improving across all areas — the bank opened 101 branches last year, without adding a single employee. Core earnings were strong. BoI's continuation of strong core earnings momentum is also impressive. This is the sixth consecutive quarter the bank has reported earnings growth of over 50% y-o-y. Even core earnings growth has averaged 40% y-o-y during this period. The stock is trading at 10x FY09E earnings, 2x book with an RoE of 21%, which is very attractive.
 
 
HDFC Bank
Research: Edelweiss
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 1,601


Edelweiss maintains 'buy' rating on HDFC Bank. The bank's Q3 FY08 profit was up 45% y-o-y, ahead of consensus estimates. Net interest income (NII) grew 55% y-o-y to Rs 1,430 crore. The bank's business momentum increased on strong contribution from SME and corporate segments. Provisions rose q-o-q with higher specific provisioning. The bank booked one-off gains of Rs 100 crore on sale of its stake in CAMS during the quarter. It also made one-off provisions on indirect taxes of Rs 73 crore. Adjusting for these extraordinary incomes, net profit grew 36% y-o-y. Pre-provisioning operating profit grew 30% y-o-y to Rs 930 crore. Key highlights of the quarter were: (1) Net interest margins improved q-o-q to 4.3%, with decline in cost of funds and increase in yields on investment; (2) Core fee income grew 38% y-o-y; (3) The proportion of low-cost deposit declined slightly to 51%; (4) Operating expenses increased 78% y-o-y due to higher other operating expenses; (5) Overall provisioning increased 59%; and (6) Balance sheet grew 47% y-o-y. Edelweiss is revising its earnings estimates upwards for FY08E and FY09E by 2% and 6%, respectively, and expects the bank to post EPS of Rs 45 for FY08E and Rs 59.6 for FY09E, respectively. The stock is trading at 3.6x FY09E book and 24x FY09 earnings.

ETC Networks:-The scrip with multibagger potential

 

"BUY IT NOW"

The scrip was recomended by me at 150rs and from there it hit a high of 375rs.Target was acheived butdue to the market volatility its presently quoting at 230 odd levels.

Scripscan-ETC Networks
CMP-232
Traded in:NSE-BSE
Story:Merger story


Etc networks is going to de delisted after trading of today.The company is merging with ZILS which is the educational business arm of the zee group.

The merged entity is expected to post revenues of around 95crs in 08 with a Profit after tax of around 17crs.Equity would be around 10crs so Eps comes at 17rs for 08.Now for every 2 shares of etc networks one would get 1 shares of ZILS.So real effective price would be 464rs(Etc is quoting at 232rs and one would get 1 shares for every 2 shares held).Even at that price its quoting at just 27 times its estimated fy08 earnings.Stocks in the similar category,Computer –Education,like Educomp Solutions, Everonn Systems are quoting at P/E multiples in excess of 60-80 times expected earnings.Even IF we give a P.E of 50-55 to the merged entity,its coming as a doubler.Well lets leave the valuation to you guys to decide."Altogether a great buy.

Today is the last chance to get the stock.So members buy it before u miss the buss.You all have seen how shristi infra post merger with peerless moved after relisting from 450 to 1030 levels in just no time.The same just cant be ruled out in case of ETC networks too.Its a gr8 business and real exciting times are ahead for the shareholders.

BTW:-It will list within 4-5 months maximium..Considering the market volatility these can be a safe option to keep your money in the stock and get the benefit of capital appreciation when the scrip lists.



Regards,
Arun
I can be reached at:arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

 
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