Positve movement in Nifty may be shortlived

 

Nifty CMP : 4918

 

Yesterday market showed  a strengh coming back to the market. Yen also bouced back from 103.20 to 104.70/dollar after strong housing data and Durable goods datafrom US.

But this positve movement in nifty may be shortlived as Market is making lower tops and lower bottoms.As for the market sentiment prevailing now anywhere between 4990-5025 remains Nifty's maximum upside. Breakout above is a Clear bull Signal. Yen also currently facing resistance at 105.26 any break out above may initiate fresh FII Investment in emerging markets like India.

 

As Nifty is under Expiry and a weaker Inflation data may make the current Nifty sentiment weaker. Also nifty will follow the downtrend if Nifty is unable to break out above 5000 levels

 

Tata Steel, Divis Labaratories, Tata Motors stocks shows strength and remains a valuable pick now for medium term gains.

Regards,
Rajandran R
Author -Marketcalls

Interpret a Buy/Sell Signal from a MACD Histogram

The MACD Histogram is useful for anticipating changes in trend.

Overview

The MACD Histogram (MACD-H) consists of vertical bars showing the difference between the MACD line and its signal line   • A change in the MACD-H will usually precede any changes in MACD
  • Signals are generated by direction, zero line crossovers and divergence from MACD
  • As an indicator of an indicator, MACD-H should be compared with MACD rather than with the price action of the underlying market.


MACD-H is used with MACD as a complementary indicator.

Thomas Aspray found that MACD signals often lagged important market moves, especially when applied to weekly charts. He first experimented with changing the moving averages and found that shorter moving averages did indeed speed up the signals. However, he was looking for a means to anticipate MACD crossovers and came up with the MACD Histogram.

Interpretation

The MACD Histogram represents the difference between MACD and it's signal line (usually the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the MACD). Whenever MACD crosses the signal line, MACD-H crosses the zero line.

  • If the MACD line is above the signal line, the histogram is positive, and the bars are drawn above the zero line.
  • If the MACD line is below the signal line, histogram is negative, and the bars are drawn below the zero line.


Sharp increases in the MACD-H indicate that MACD is rising faster than its 9-day EMA and upward momentum is strengthening. Sharp declines in the MACD-H indicate that MACD is falling faster than its moving average and downward momentum is increasing.

Divergences between MACD and MACD-H are the main tool used to anticipate crossovers. A positive divergence in the MACD-H indicates that MACD is strengthening and could be on the verge of a bullish moving average crossover. A negative divergence in the MACD-H indicates that MACD is weakening and can act to foreshadow a bearish moving average crossover in MACD.

Signals

The main signal generated by the MACD-Histogram is a divergence from MACD followed by a zero-line crossover.

  • A bullish signal is generated when a positive divergence forms and there is an upward zero line crossover.
  • A bearish signal is generated when there is a negative divergence and a downward zero line crossover.


In Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, John Murphy states that the real value of the MACD-H is spotting when the spread between the two lines is widening or narrowing. When the histogram is above its zero line (positive) but starts to fall, the uptrend is weakening. Conversely, when the histogram is below its zero line (negative) and starts to rise, the downtrend is losing momentum. These turns of the histogram provide early warnings that the current trend is losing momentum, and the buy or sell signal is given when the histogram crosses the zero line.

Murphy also advocates a two-tiered approach in order to avoid making trades against the major trend. The weekly MACD-H can be used to generate long-term signals. Then only short-term signals that agree with the major trend are used.

  • If the long-term trend is up, only positive divergences with upward zero line crossovers are considered valid for the MACD-H.
  • If the long-term trend is down, only negative divergences with downward zero line crossovers are considered valid.


Used this way, the weekly signals become trend filters for daily signals. This prevents using daily signals to trade against the overall trend.

Buy Dvis Lab : A Best Short Term Pharma Stock

Buy : Divis Laboratories

CMP : Rs 1397

Target : Rs 1540

Upside : 10%

Stop Loss : Rs 1365

Time Frame : 5-7 Days

 

If the investors wants some different pharma pick may be Divis Labs would be the best for short term Investor Pick. Divis Lab made a low of 1369 in past two days which is almost a double bottom which act as a great support. To be more precise can make a stop loss of 1365 and can take trade at current levels for 10% gains.Trend Reversal in this counter may seen. In summary Divi's Lab is a Low Risk High Gain Stock.

 

Also read : Divis Laboratories to announce financial results 

Please maintain Strict Stop Loss

MoneyBhai Investor : Play Stock Markets with Virtual Money

Is there any chance to master the Indian stock market without investing.If you are are a student or a kind of person not will to take risk or not having enough money to invest in stock markets, there is a way to master Indian Stock Markets. MoneyBhai is the perfect platform for the Investors and Students to learn how to buy,short sell the Stocks in market.Moneybhai is a virtuak stock trading game where investors need not to have real money to Invest in Stock

 

About MoneyBhai
MoneyBhai is one of the Virtual trading portal from Moneycontrol.com.

In Moneybhai, Initially 25 Lacs of virtual money will be given to you and you are able to buy the stocks using this limit. Just like stock markets you can long or go short in selected scripts. Moreover you can track your own performance record and your own virtual returns. Once you get confidence that your track performance record is satisfatory then you can return to real market and can take a real trade.You can play in this market only during market hours. You can also track the portfolio of the Leaders or your favorite pals and you can also follow your own favorite leaders.

 

 

HERE ARE SOME OF THE RULES OF THE GAME

Total Corpus of 25 lakhs. Out of which Rs 25 lakhs can be used for normal buy and sell and Rs 25 lakhs can be used for short sell. a]  Normal Buy Whatever one's bought they need not sell on the same day it can be carried forward Only 10% of the corpus can be traded on per stock. Short selling is allowed. b]  Shortsell One needs to buy back before the market closes or the stocks will be squared off. All NSE Stocks with price more than Rs 20 are allowed. Brokerage of 0.05% will be charged on every transaction executed All buy and sell transcations cannot exceed the actual volumes in the market. All the rules and regulations pertaining splits and bonuses, must be followed. You can reset your portfolio anytime you want to. If you reset your portfolio in a particular week you will not be entitled for the weekly winner prize that week.

Even If you are a loser in this game then no need to worry . Who Cares? No Tension.

So Want to be a master in Stocks Do your own analysis and Invest your virtual money and be a Stock Master

 

Have a Nice Try

 

Regards,

Rajandran R

Cords Cable Industires Limited CCIL : Best Investing Scripts

 

Buy : Cords Cable Industries Limited ( CCIL )

CMP : Rs 123

Target : Rs 150 & 200

Time Frame : 1-2 months(Rs 150) and 4 months (Rs 200)

 

 

In the business of manufacturing cables, CCIL offers a proxy exposure to the ongoing infrastructure and power growth story. Robust growth in sales and bottomline, diverse revenue mix, established clientele and the proposed entry into HT (high tension) power, rubber and speciality cables segment, suggest good prospects for the company.

 

Click the charts to get Enlarged

Todaay (27th May, 2008 ) Cords Cable Industries has bagged an export order worth around USD 12 Million or Rs 500 million for supply of IT Power Cables (Copper Conductor) for a major project in the Middle East. The order is to be completed in the next six to seven months time.
 

About CCIL

The company caters to industries like power, steel, cement, fertilizers, chemicals, and petroleum among several others. It is pre-qualified and has the approval of large corporates and well known public sector undertakings; top consultants such as Kvaerner Powergas India, Det Norske Veritas As, Toyo Engineering India, Jacob H&G, Engineers India, Mecon, Rites, M.N. Dastur & Co., Tata Consulting Engineers and others. The company`s clientele includes BHEL, Hindalco, NTPC, ACC, Tata Steel, HPCL, GAIL, Siemens, Honeywell, L&T, MRPL to name a few. It exports its products to Bangladesh, Zambia, Oman and Kuwait among other countries.

 

Conclusion :

Cord cables remains a great and Intellignet investing stock in both short term & Long term view as this point of time.

Nifty Trading Strategy and Three Black Crows Pattern

Nifty Spot Price : 4875
Candle Stick Patten Formed : Three Black Crows
Indicate : Bearish

Bearsih Three Black Crows pattern this what all the financial blogs and Analyst are shouting which we witness in yesterdays nifty

charts(see fig for ref). And Iam the last one to shout about this pattern.

 

 

What Does a Three Black rows Pattern Mean?

 

Following an uptrend, three long red days with consecutively lower closes act as a strong indicator, certainly the very definition of a downtrend, and almost assuring future bearish trends.

The Bearish Three Black Crows serves as a clear and rather obvious signal of pause in the bullish move. Although one strong bearish candle can be reasonably expected during a bull trend, the second and third days suggest profit taking and consolidation of the bull trend.
 

Candlestick traders will watch for more bearish or ranging markets to come, but if the candles are too overextended analysts will worry that the market may now be oversold and pause accordingly.

 

 

Are we in a Clear downtrend?

 

Hardly, Yes. When Nifty breaks the trend line below 4986 we are clear that we are moving towards the downtrend. And More and more

confirming technical signals are changing to bullish to bearsih day by day. The Down Channel has opened in nifty.

 

Conclusion

 

So what we can expect from todays market. This day may trade in quite green with resistance hardly remain at 4925 .But target of upto 4780 levels being 61.8% fibonacci retracement level and It is hardly confirmed and recommeded in cheema's blog Learn and Teach Stocks . As most of the asian markets are trading in green we can expect a bouce back upto the resistant level 4913. So those people those who are bearsih are recommended to take Nifty June Puts at higher levels.

Also Yen is currently trading at 103.3/Dollar with has support at 102.75 and FII's are the net sellers in past five sessions

Any broke ot above 4950 is considered to be a bullish signal as for as now. Till then we are to see a clear down trend in near term future.

Yen Carry Trade and Nifty Movement

Nifty Cmp : 4947

Yen is once again trading at 103.30/dollar and it takes 102.80/dollar
as it takes support twice in this month alone. If yen is gonna break
this level then we are gonna open to downtrend. Hardly,we can see
Nifty anywhere between 4740-4780 levels if yen to break support.
Because FII's turn net sellers in past four sessions and any downturn
below 102.75/dollar will further initiate selling pressure from global
hedge funds. Yen on last thursday bounced from the support 102.80 to
104 levels. But dollar loosen its strength against Yen as US Housing
recession deepens with weaker data.

Yen remains my last hope for the markets to recover. Any how we gonna
open in red but recovery is in the hands of Yen.
Japanese markets behaviour will indicate in just 4 hours from here.
Whether we gonna sustain above the past support 4913 or not.

Regards,
Rajandran R
Author- Marketcalls
Article compiled & posted from my Sony Ericsson mobile k550i.
Time: 02:16 a.m, 26,May,2008

Multibagger stocks witness rise in FII stake Holding

FII stake holding witness a steady and step increase in stock counters
like Rajesh Exports(cmp : Rs95.20) and Core Projects and
Technologies(Rs208). Both are currently trading at attractive price.

Rajesh Exports witness a FII holding of 17% as of 31-mar-08, nearly
10.3% increase in stake of rajesh export when compared to the FII
holding as on 31-Dec-07. Similarly FII has picked up nearly 6.7% in
Core projects as on 31-mar-08 and may further rise in their holdings
as the company posted strong earnings in FY08. Its profit after tax
jumped to nearly 153% for FY08 at 84.48cr Vs 33.37cr for the previous
year and total income up 132% at 452.99cr Vs 185.13cr respectively and
eyeing 950cr revenue for FY09 as they have healthy pipe line projects
in India

Most of the brokerage firms are bullish in rajesh exports. Emkay
securities comes up with a target of Rs 155 and Prime brokerage
updates their target to Rs208.
Market calls also bullish in these counters as both of the stocks are
already recommended in our multibagger section.

Some of the midcap and smallcap counters that witness rise in FII
stake holdings are MC Nally, Prime Focus, Gati, Nucleus Software, ICSA
India & Ks Oils. Do Feel better if you are holding such scripts in
your investment portfolio.

Regards,
Rajandran
Author- Marketcalls
Article composed in my Sony Ericsson mobile phone K550i.

Why Such a huge relisting in KGN & Sylph Technologies?

A day after shares of KGN Industries soared by 76,000 per cent on re-listing, stocks of Indore-based finance company Sylph Technolgies that reentered the Bombay Stock Exchange on Thursday zoomed 99,900 per cent to hit an intra-day high of Rs 800. Shares of Sylph Technologies got re-listed at Rs 152 and closed at Rs 200, up by Rs 199.The volume was very low on both the scrips (KGN and Sylph) and it was easy for anyone with ample money to rig their prices. These two stocks not even witnessed any kind of fundamentals and then what make the stock to soar this amount of high?

 

KGN relisted on May 21 after it was suspended from trading in 2001(nearly suspended for 5 Years). Following the move in the share price of KGN, the BSE that had suspended the scrip from trading 12.20 PM on Wednesday later came out with a release fixing the closing price of the scrip at Rs 5,216.It was suspended after the stock price shot up to Rs 55,000. It had a low volume of less than 1,000 shares.However, no such measures were taken in the case of Sylph Technologies as the trading was not suspended in the scrip.

Investors who bought shares of Sylph Technologies that zoomed 99,900 per cent in intra-day trade on Thursday found themselves trapped on Friday. They were unable to sell the stock on Friday as no single trade took place in Sylph Technologies counter.

This is purely illogical." Meanwhile, shares of KGN Industries that hit an intra-day high of Rs 55,000 from a previous closing price of Rs 100 ended Friday lower by 5 per cent at Rs 4,863.

Memebers are requested not to get trapped in such fake scripts.

 

 

 

 

Quintegra Solutions may turn to be a Multibagger Stock

Buy : Quintegra Solutions

CMP : Rs 93

Target : Rs120 & 180

Time - 3-4 Months for Target 1 and 8-9 months for Target 2

 

Quintegra Solutions Ltd., (NSE: Quintegra; BSE: Quintegra, Scrip Code: 532866), a global IT services and Consulting Products company, is one of India's leading software developer and IT services exporter. Quintegra has offices in the US, UK, Germany, Africa, India, Malaysia and Singapore, with development centers in India, Singapore and Malaysia. Leveraging its proven global delivery model, Quintegra provides a full range of custom software development solutions and consultancy services in IT on various platforms and technologies. Quintegra's software development processes meet the highest quality standards and its software processes comply with SEI CMM standards. Quintegra enjoys long-term business relationships with clients across diverse sectors including some of the best-known global corporations. Quintegra also works closely with many mid-size growth companies and ISVs. Quintegra is headquartered at Chennai, India, and is listed on India's NSE, BSE and MSE.

 

More Recently Quintegra has completed the Initial Assessment of ISO 27001:2005 Information Security Management System of the organization with an external agency.On its quality journey, Quintegra has also completed its SCAMPI B assessment with an external auditor and is moving closer to become a CMMi Level 5 company.

 

 

1Year chart (Click the chart to get Enlarged)

Growth of the company

 

Quintegra Solutions Ltd has grown from $10 million to a $100-million company in the last three years.Quintegra targets $1 b revenue in 3-5 years.Quintegra's exposure and risk is mitigated by the fact that they have penetration into different countries apart from the US and our growth in those countries is extremely high

 

 

 

Quintegra's Consolidated Full Year Net Profit Up by 402%

 

On a consolidated basis, the Company has recorded a top line growth of 239.54% for the Fourth quarter ended 31 March 2008. The Company's consolidated revenue for the Fourth Quarter ended 31 March 2008 was Rs. 104.33 Crores as against Rs. 30.72 Crores for the corresponding period of the previous year. The Net Profit for the Company on a consolidated basis for the Fourth Quarter ended 31 March 2008 was Rs. 5.51 Crores as
against Rs. 2.86 Crores for the same period during the previous year posting an increase of 92.65%.

On a stand alone basis, the Company has recorded a top line growth of 47.78% for the Fourth quarter ended 31 March 2008. The Company's stand alone revenue for the fourth quarter ended 31 March 2008 stood at Rs. 25.67 Crores as against Rs. 17.37 Crores for the corresponding period of the previous year. The Net Profit for the Company on a stand alone basis for the fourth quarter ended 31 March 2008 was Rs.2.77 Crores as against Rs. 1.99 Crores for the same period during the previous year posting an increase of 38.64%.

 

 

Adlabs launches India's first 6-D movie screen in Agra

CMP : 675

 

Adlabs Cinema Friday launched India's first six-dimension (6-D) movie screen at Agra, where cutting edge technology would provide a multi-sensory cinematic experience as never experienced by the audience.

 

Unlike two-dimensional (2-D) or three-dimensional (3-D) theatres, the new theatre's technology employs cutting-edge visual and audio effects that allows the audience to simultaneously experience sight, sound, smell, touch, motion and even interact with the characters.

 

Part of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group, the 6-D theatre - in colloboration with Cinema Park Networks - is located near the Taj Mahal. Adlabs said that 6-D cinema is set to become a distinctive global tourist entertainment attraction.

In the 6-D theatre, two digital video players play simultaneously and project a 3-D film on the screen. The visitors sit on Smart Motion Seats that move around, have bass shakers and multiple ticklers. Viewers also experience special effects, such as breeze, water spray and smoke.

In the Interactive Theatre, which is the first ever interactive cinema theatre in the world, each viewer holds a wireless remote unit with push buttons and a small LCD screen, enabling them to participate in a trivia game about the theme of the film.

An introductory special 30-minute film called "India In Motion" has been shot where actor Anupam Kher takes the audiences through India's evolution from an ancient civilization to a modern nation.

The audience will pass through today's India in - or on - a variety of typical vehicles and see the historical events at sites like Mohenjo Daro, Indraprastha and the Taj Mahal, experiencing the bumpy elephant rides with the wind blowing through their hair, or the swaying boat with salty spray on their faces.

With the 6-D screen, the Cinema Park Network puts Agra on an impressive list of destinations worldwide that host this attraction. Their 450 projects include cities like Jerusalem, Rome, Baltimore, Athens, Warsaw, Tel Aviv, Orlando, Mexico and Sweden.

 

Adlabs is India's largest cinema chain with 163 screens across 63 cinemas across the country. It was the first to introduce entertainment destinations such as the IMAX at the largest dome theatre in the world and has also pioneered the concept of megaplexes in the country.

Cinema Park Network is a pioneer and international leader in the production of multi-sensory educational films.

 

 

 

Nifty Strategy for Futures and Options

Nifty Spot Price : 5025

 

 

Nifty today started with a great bang downwards due to fear of Oil hitting a new record high of 135$/Barrel

Dow Sheds more than 200 pts last wednesday added the fire to the oil. Will Fridays Market can show any

positive sign for upwards? Will Nifty Down below 5000 levels?

 

As Yen Started weak today at 102.88 which has strict support at 102.75/Dollar. We also notified to our

sms subscribers that if Yen dips below 102.75/Dollar there is a chance of huge selling pressure from FII Investors

Speaking Technically,Yen bounced to higher levels this makes the Japanese market to recover also our market too

show initial signs of recovery upto 5060 where nifty finds strong resistance. Currently Yen is trading at 103.67/Dollar

So no chance of FII selling factors in until yen takes a hard knock

 

Click the chart to get enlarged

There is a chance of nifty to move downwards if the inflation numbers expected tommorow noon. Any small decrease in

Inflation numbers will lead to celebration in the market. But rising metal and crude oil prices are resisting us to think about

lowering of inflation numbers

 

Nifty Trading Strategy :

 

Nifty currently seen supports in the range of 4990- 5010. So traders are requested to hold stric stoploss in nifty calls at 4986

If nfity breaks 4990 then traders are recommend to short the market for a downside target of 4740. If nifty turn bullish and any break

out above 5080 can lead the market to 5350 levels. If you had already taken the nifty call then please maintain strict stop loss.

Currently 5200-Nifty-June call is available at cheaper price. If nifty breaks 4990 then it is good to take May-4800-Put Option

for good returns

 

Investors are recommended to stick with steel and I.T stocks for which rupee depreciation is a a great catalysts at this point of

time and stay away from capital goods and banking stocks.

 

Lets see the Bull Vs Bears Fight hardly intresting than IPL's T20

 

Happy Trading

 

Regards,

Rajandran R

Author - MarketCalls

Buy RPL Futures Above 188 : Target 194 and 200

RPL
Buy  RPL May Futures above 188 Target Rs 194 & 200 Max.Profit  = 12x1675 = Rs 20,100 Stop Loss Rs 185.40 Market Lot 1675 View Bullish Strategy Future

RPL FIve Day Chart


Click the chart to Get Enlarged

Buy : Carborundum Universal : Multibagger Picks

Buy : Carborundum Universal
Cmp : 115
Target : 233
Upside : 100%
Time : 6-8 months

This stock has been recommended in our sms community 2 days back at Rs 115.

Stock Highlight: HDFC Infrastructure fund has picked up 3.1 lakh shares to increase its stake to 0.76% in abrasives and industrial cement major. Though the stock has declined more than 37% from its january high of Rs 183, the average deliveries continues to be high at 74% of average trading volume of over 20,000 shares in last month. Also recently company also announced its merger with PACL, which is now a subsidary of a company. PACL engaged in business of acid resisting cements, corrosion resisting products, polymer concrete etc.

 

Company Profile:

 

CUMI was founded in 1954 as a tripartite collaboration between the Murugappa Group, The Carborundum Co., USA and the Universal Grinding Wheel Co. Ltd., U.K.

The company pioneered the manufacture of Coated and Bonded Abrasive in India in addition to the manufacture of Super Refractories, Electro Minerals, Industrial Ceramics and Ceramic Fibres. Today the company's range of over 20,000 different varieties of abrasives, refractory products and electro-minerals are manufactured in ten locations across various parts of the country.

CUMI's products are being exported to 43 countries spread across North America, Europe, Australia, South Africa and Asia.

Finanicals

Net Sales grew to Rs. 165 crores, representing a growth of 27% over the sales for the corresponding quarter of last year (Rs.130 crores). Profits before interest and tax (before profit on sale of assets and investments) grew by 12%. The Company earned Rs.11 crores profits on sale of investments during the quarter. Profits before tax grew to Rs.32 crores (previous year Rs.23 crores) . .Profits after tax increased from Rs.17 crores to Rs.25 crores.

Dividend Date

Carborundum Universal Ltd has informed BSE that the Register of Members & Share Transfer Books of the Company will remain closed from July 10, 2008 to July 24, 2008 (both days inclusive) for the purpose of payment of dividend.    

 

Buy Ispat Industires at current levels for easy gains

Buy Ispat Industries
Cmp : 33
Target : 40
Time : 2 months

 

 

Positive News:

 

1)The Steel Ministry is likely to submit a report to the FM in the next 10 days. The Steel Ministry and steel producers wants the export duty to be removed.

2)FY08 Results on 30th June 2008

 

Recent News

30th,Mar,2008

 

Ispat Industries to raise Rs 10 bn

 

KOLKATA: ISPAT Industries plans to raise Rs 1,000 crore through a mix of a rights issue and a foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) float to part-finance its Rs 2,292 crore upcoming new projects and capacity expansion programme. The company is setting up a 1 million tonne per annum (mtpa) coke oven plant at Dolvi, a 4.5 mtpa pellet plant at Vishakhapatnam and also enhancing the capacity of its existing hot rolled coil capacity from 3 mtpa to 3.6 mtpa.

Ispat Industries has joined hands with UK's Stemcor to form a JV for setting up the coke oven plant at an investment of Rs 925 crore.

Buy Sonata Software : A Great GEM in I.T sector

Buy : Sonata software
Reco Price : 37
Target : 58
Returns : 50%
Time : 5-6 months

Hi Members,

This stock is in a upmove recommended at Rs 37 in our free sms community ( Marketbits ). And Today this stock moved up more than 8% trading above 39.  Rising rupee is a strong motivator of this stock. Defenitely this stock will earn good returns in future as the fundamendal of the stock is strong.

Please read about the overview of the company before getting into the stock

 

 

About Sonata Software

 

Sonata Software, headquartered in Bangalore, India, is a leading IT Consulting and Services company. Sonata's customers span across the US, Europe and Asia-Pacific. Its portfolio of services include IT Consulting, Application Development, Application Management, Managed Testing, Business Intelligence, Infrastructure Management and Outsourced Product Development. Sonata is listed on the Indian Stock Exchanges and is SEI CMM Level 5 certified.

Sonata's strength lies in leveraging innovation and a global onsite-offshore delivery model to provide the best Return on Investments for its clients. Our Centers of Excellence built around the latest technologies, are focused on proactively building competency and providing cutting-edge solutions to our customers.

Sonata today is USD 363.58 million (FY 07-08), and growing. As one of India 's leading software services company, we have maintained strong fundamentals with zero-debt. Sonata's shares are publicly traded in Indian Stock Exchanges with employees holding 12% (FY 06-07) ownership.
 

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS

 

Sonata Software Limited (Consolidated)

Quarter 4 - Year on Year

Revenue for the Quarter was Rs. 384.26 cr. and for the full year was Rs. 1428.37 cr PAT at Rs. 58.52 cr up 22% Y.O.Y PAT for the Quarter was Rs.16.9 cr, up 8% Q.O.Q and up 32% Y.O.Y EPS at Rs.5.56 as compared to Rs. 4.57 last year RONW & ROCE for the year at 28.16% and 25.29% respectively

Sonata Software Limited (stand alone)

Quarter 4 - Year on Year

Revenue in US Dollars up 21% Y.O.Y and 8% Q.O.Q PAT at Rs.10.57 cr, up 46% Y.O.Y Cash generation from operations was Rs. 11.10 cr Cash reserves on 31.3.2008 at Rs.15.34 cr 9 new clients added during the quarter EPS at Rs.3.49 compared to Rs. 3.34 last year

 

Speaking on the occasion, Mr B Ramaswamy, President & Managing Director, stated that "Growth during the quarter is in line with the consistent growth seen in the first three quarters of the financial year. Existing customer base, geographical spread, Alliances and differentiated service offerings will be the key drivers for future growth."

 

Recent Notices to the Stock Exchange

 

Sonata Software Ltd has informed BSE that Mr. Rajan B Raheja ceased to be the Director of the Company with effect from April 09, 2008. Mr. Viren Rajan Raheja was co-opted as an Additional Director of the Company with effect from April 17, 2008.          Date: 2008-05-09

 

Sonata Software Ltd has informed BSE that the Register of Members & Share Transfer Books of the Company will remain closed from June 02, 2008 to June 10, 2008 (both days inclusive) for the purpose of payment of final dividend & Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the Company to be held on June 10, 2008.           Date: 2008-04-18
 

 

Regards,

Rajandran R

Author - Marketcalls

Is it Play in Forex from R.B.I?

14th May,2008,Market Calls
Author - Rajandran


Is it a play from R.B.I in Forex to decrease inflation figures


Resuming its slide against the dollar, the rupee plunged to its more than one-year low of 42.64as the heavy demand for the U.S. currency in view of high oil prices continued modest its short supply.

LTP : 1 Dollar = 42.57 INR ( LTP - Last Traded Price

RBI Governers Speech on 9th May 2008
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Dr Y. V. Reddy said the situation is reflective of the “global uncertainties”. The rupee’s weakness is contrary to the apex bank’s expectations of its strengthening.

The RBI has hiked cash reserve ratio to 8.25 per cent, though it is yet to come into effect fully, to tighten money supply.

A tighter money supply should have triggered the rupee to move in the opposite direction, a dealer with a private bank said.

Conclusion
Rise in ruppee is strongly motivating I.T and Steel Sector as steel and I.T stocks surged today. So Stay stuned to I.T Stock for short term. I.T sector remains my next big bet in the Stock Market

Aftermath : Why our Double Money Nifty Call Goes Wrong?

 

Eventhough 12th,May Wtinessed Strong Positive recovery to 5013 in Nifty. I failed to notice the formation of Bearish Weak Continuation Thrusing Candlestick Pattern.

Nifty CMP : 4957

Nifty 3 Month Chart

Which we discussed below.

 

 

Bearish Thrusting Japanese Candle Stick Pattern

 

The Thrusting pattern starts by a continuation of the established move. Day two reflects a bullish rally that closes into the body of the previous day, but is not able to trade above the midpoint.

The pattern suggests that sellers have not been weakened by the bull rally and if anything, shorts have simply covered their positions allowing price to rise slightly. Going forward the lack of strength exhibited by buyers would discourage longs to enter the market, and allow the continuation of the downtrend.

Medium Continuation In-Neck

Weak Continuation Thrusting

Because this patterns signal is so weak, analysts will look for confirmation from bearish moves the following day.

The Bearish Thrusting Pattern is very similar, but weaker than the Bullish Harami and Bullish Engulfing reversal patterns. Where the day-two close on the Thrusting pattern closes below the midpoint, Haramis close hits at or above the midpoint, the Engulfing patterns' day-two close reach above day-ones open. Bearish Thrustin vs In Neck and On Neck Continuation Patterns Visually, the bearish Thrusting looks similar to the On Neck and In Neck Patterns as well.

 

 

 

How to identify

 

1. 1st day is a long black day.
2. 2nd day is a white day which opens well below the low of the 1st day.
3. 2nd day closes well into the body of the 1st day, but below the midpoint.

Conclusion : But a bearish Thrusting pattern doesnt meant that We are heading strongly downwards.We are still holding above the trend line 4950. Once If we failed to closed above the 4940-4950 band then we are really heading downwards strongly. Now we are at cautious zone. Let see how market moves from here

Buy : June-Nifty-5200 Call Option to Double your Money

Buy : June-Nifty-5200 Call Option

LTP : Rs 127/Lot ( LTP - Last Traded Price)

Target  : Rs 260

Nifty Target : 5358

Time Frame: 30 Days

Potential Upside : More than 100%

Stop Loss : 4940

Profit Per Lot : Rs 6950
Investment : Rs 6650

 

Bullish "w" Pattern Witnessed in Nifty on 12th May-2008. Good for Market Sentiment also Yen Trading Good

 

YEN CMP : 103.94/dollar

All Ways Have an Eye on Yen while taking Nifty Trade

Nifty CMP : 5012

 

And Stay Tunes to our Free sms service www.smsgupshup.com/groups/marketbits to recieve free stock and news alerts on your mobile.

 

Regards,

Rajandran R

 

 

Update: Even though a bearish thrusting candle occured on 13th May,2008 we are still above tha trend line 4950 as shown in the chart. Even it is witnessed in the 14th May market with nifty closing at 5011. So in near term consolidation pattern may be formed followed by a broke out. Currently Yen also trading fine above 105/dollar. So a strong FII buying can be initiated at this time.
Sure nifty is in the way to head toward the next target of 5358.

Meet You nifty at 5358 soon in days

Bihar Tubes to evaluate fund Raise options

Script : Bihar Tubes

CMP : Rs 161

Target : Rs 200

 

Bihar Tubes Expansion Plans :

 

As you know, the steel industry is passing through a very good phase all over the world and so has been the company Bihar Tubes. Bihar Tubes had a very good year last year, and their revenue had increased from around Rs 211 crore to Rs 293 crore with a jump of around 40% and EBITDA, as well as net profit have increased significantly. In fact, PAT had increased from around Rs 6.8 crore to Rs 18.7 crore, which is almost 3 times higher.

 

Bihar Tubes are looking at the strong growth infrastructure sector, They have recently acquired a company in Southern India and this is a very strategical acquisition, which will give them presence in the South. It is a very lucrative market and it will also save their transportation cost. In the same line,they are looking at either acquisition or a Greenfield expansion in the Western region. Bihar Tubes are looking at some units in Maharashtra these are established in it, which are having good production facilities, and we hope to further augment those.

Bihar Tubes 3 Month Charts

 

Bihar Tubes Fund Raisisng :

 

Source: BSE - Bihar Tubes Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on May 16, 2008, inter alia, to consider the following businesses: 1. To consider and evaluate the various fund raising options such as Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) and / or American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and / Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCB's) and / or Fully Convertible Debentures (FCDs) or any other convertible securities and / or securities linked to equity shares and / or any other instruments or securities through the QIB / Private Placement route or Institutional Debts from domestic or international markets and / or any combination thereof for the proposed expansion plans and modernization of existing manufacturing facilities of the Company. 2. To consider the reconstruction of Board of Directors and committees thereof.     

Nifty Trading Strategy : 12th May, 2008

Nifty Spot price: 4982

Only negative cues prevailing for tommorow's market. Inflation and Crude Oil fears to demolish traders and Investors sentiment.

So what we can expect from tommorow's market. Traders are in thought that is there any chance of sustaining the uptrend what we saw last month? Will bulls restore the place of bears despite global weakness? And what nifty charts are telling whether to short nifty or to go long at lower levels?

Taking all these things we had made a safest futures and option strategies in Nifty to be followed on monday market. Here we go

Nifty Strategy:

Gap down opening may possible on tommorow( 12th May,2008 ). If Nifty breaks 4940-4950 band then next support at 4740. So if we want to sustain the upmove then we should hold 4950. So Nifty may try to breach 4950 and even 4880 and then a bounce back to 4950 at late trade or one can expect even above.

Nifty 3 Month Chart

So be carefull in selecting stop loss.

And go long if 4950 recover. Else remain short the nifty below 4950 with stop loss at 4982. And keep lowering your stoploss whenever nifty cracks down

Right now technical indicators show strong sell Signals and there is a chance of turn around and also have an eye on Yen currently trading at 102.85/dollar. More the yen appreciation more the FII selling pressure.Chance of Bounce back if Yen is not breaking below 102.85/Dollar.

Happy Trading!

Regards,
Rajandran R
Author - Marketcalls

Sayaji hotels : The Next Super Star in the Hotel Industry

 

Scrip scan: Sayaji hotels
Bse Code: 523710
cmp : Rs89

 

Introduction: - Booming tourism industry and higher business travel has led to insufficient rooms in indian hotel industry. As a result,most hotels in all categories are enjoying best ever occupancy as well as ARPU.Hotel industry is expected to do much better for next 2-3 years.

In such a scenario, India's leading premium three star hotel and food chain Sayaji hotels appears a good pick.Promoted by Dhanani family of indore, company has hotels in baroda and indore and Gandhidham..In fact,indore property enjoys dominant position in indore city with its central location.Sayaji faces very little competition in indore.Indore hotel offers full marriage package which is very popular and big money spinner for the company 30 to 40% revenue of the hotel group is from marriage packages.Future prospects:Company has been performing exceedingly well.Revenues for the year 2008 were 69.18 crores, an increase of 53.78 per cent over the prior year.

 

The company has set up a 350 room hotel in pune.Company is also planning to set up another hotel in one of the major prime cities. These 2 projects will catapult sayaji into bigger league.

The company has up chain of restaurants called 'kabab ville'.These restaurants offer high quality speciality food at reasonable prices.

 

Mr. Sajid Dhanani, Managing Director, Sayaji hotels commented: "We have grown considerable in the last year and have achieved our set target. Going forward this year, we are opening our four star category hotel having 247 rooms in Pune and also concentrate on opening more Barbeque Nation Restaurants, adding 30 more to the already existing 10 restaurant outlets. We are also adding 200 rooms in out existing hotel at Indore and will be operational in the year 2010-11 and adding one more mid segment hotel in Indore having 204 rooms by 2009-10. After successful running of our F&B outlet buffet junction at Ginger hotels at Baroda we are planning to role out the model in other centers and mall all over India."

 

 

Sayaji Hotels:-

 

The company is planning to capitalise the hospitality boom by opening 100 Barbeque Nation restaurants in the next 3 years. Barbeque Nation restuarants chain has presence in 11 cities at present and plans to open 34 more by dec09 and total target is 100 by end of fiscal 2009-10. 20% of the profits of the Barbeque nation is distibuted among staff causing accelerated growth of the group.
 

 

Recent New about Sayaji Hotels

 

Sayaji Hotels Ltd has informed BSE that the Opening of Barbeque-Nation Restaurant at Ahmedabad (Gujarat) by wholly owned subsidiary Company of the Company. Further the Company has informed that, Sixth Restaurant is opening on May 02, 2008 at Ahmedabad (Gujarat). The Company is inaugurating the new Restaurant at Shop No. 3, Shivalik-3, Near Milestone Complex, Drive in Road Ahmedabad. The Sixth Restaurant is being opened by the wholly owned subsidiary Company M/s. Barbeque-Nation Hospitality Ltd and currently operating five restaurants at Jaipur, New Delhi, Lucknow, Chandigarh and Chennai. The Company is already opening five restaurants at Pali hills-Bandra, Mumbai, Indra Nagar-Bangalore, Koramangala-Banglore, Banjara hills-Hyderabad and Gurgaon near Delhi.  

 

Conclusion :

 

The company has been posting consistently improved performance for the last 4 years.Present EPS is Rs.5/-and scrip quoting Rs.86 at BSE. and has taken support at Rs 85 levels.Though valuations are not dirt cheap but numbers should speak in the coming quarters.Prospects looks good.Management is ambitious and they are doing all the right things needed to make a name for themselves.
 

 

 

Nifty Trading Strategy in Futures and Options

Nifty Spot Price : 5082

Nifty and its technical indicaters are in bearish mood. So Nifty
will try to crack 5000 levels. But technical Support seem to be at
4990 levels or roughly spoken technical support at 16800(sensex). So
one can expect a back from 4990 levels...

Negative : Inflation Results, Yen trading below 104/dollar and weakens
more then weaker market sentiment

Positive Point : Turnaround in Communication Stocks and Rising rupee
against dollar can boost IT stocks further. Rupee closed at
41.75/Dollar

So Here is our Nifty Strategy to Double your Money:

So Once can try Nifty Option June 5200 calls
at the level of 5000 with strict stop loss of 4978
Which is considered as a most safer call at this point of level to
double your money literally.

And if nifty Dips and breaks below 4950 then sure target of 4740
So recommed to take a May-Nifty-4600 Puts
If Nifty Below 4950 short the market with a strict stoploss of 4990
to Double your Money.

If you had any queries then please write to rajandran@gmail.com
Or Stay in touch with our free sms group www.smsgupshup.com/groups/marketbits

Regards,
Rajandran R
Author - MarketCalls

The pawns have been sacrificed, but the king is in no danger

Folks, the assault on Nifty looks like a failed coup with some casualties (such as REL, Bharti, Relcapital etc). But King Reliance lives on. (And what else really matters? lol)
Bears effectively arrested the uptrend over 5200, but when it came their turn to break 5100...bears just ain't crackin it!

So what's next?
The Nifty fortress is like a huge chessboard where operators decide each day, which 'pawns' they will sacrifice and which pieces they will keep. Now the real fight is over Reliance and ICICIBank, and it remains to be seen if we're going to see any real action in those counters.
In short...
The enemy hasn't made it to the Royal chambers yet. And will they? It looks unlikely. Bears will have to crack level 5000 to make any real impact. If they can't do that, bulls retain the lead and level 5200 might well be reclaimed.

Tht said, bears have sent the message loud and clear that except for a handful of counters, the rest of Nifty still bows to them, and them alone. In short, the turnaround has been confined largely to Reliance and...ah...Reliance....and...Reliance. You got the point? lol.
So all those who went running in to grab those fundamental picks are probably seeing red, and operators don't care in the least.

This is an operators market. They pumped their money into Reliance and that's where you will see all the action. Don't even try to relate the rest of Nifty with it. Who cares, if your stupid BHELs were trading around 2500 back when Reliance was at 2700 a few months ago.
Who cares that your State Bank shares were at 2200 when Reliance was at this same level.
Get over it!

Bottomline?
Bull operators are going after their goal of triggering a massive short-covering in Reliance.
Bear operators are devouring everything else. When that short-covering finally happens and bulls dump all their shares on a bunch of trapped bears....Reliance will be dropped like a hot brick and some other stock will become the Nifty driver.

In the medium term, I hope that sanity will return to our markets and Reliance will come to settle around 2200, tho Nifty is likely to trade at better levels.

In the meantime...

Don't think big. Don't think small.
Think twisted ;)

Happy Trading! :)

 

UMA

karmakoins@rediffmail.com

 

General Rules for Volume and Open Interest

What Open Interest Tells Us

 

A contract has both a buyer and a seller, so the two market players combine to make one contract. The open-interest position that is reported each day represents the increase or decrease in the number of contracts for that day, and it is shown as a positive or negative number. An increase in open interest along with an increase in price is said to confirm an upward trend. Similarly, an increase in open interest along with a decrease in price confirms a downward trend. An increase or decrease in prices while open interest remains flat or declining may indicate a possible trend reversal.

 

Rules of Open Interest

 

1. If prices are rising and open interest is increasing at a rate faster than its five-year seasonal average, this is a bullish sign. More participants are entering the market, involving additional buying, and any purchases are generally aggressive in nature.
2. If the open-interest numbers flatten following a rising trend in both price and open interest, take this as a warning sign of an impending top.
3. High open interest at market tops is a bearish signal if the price drop is sudden, since this will force many 'weak' longs to liquidate. Occasionally, such conditions set off a self-feeding, downward spiral.
4. An unusually high or record open interest in a bull market is a danger signal. When a rising trend of open interest begins to reverse, expect a bear trend to get underway.
5. A breakout from a trading range will be much stronger if open interest rises during the consolidation. This is because many traders will be caught on the wrong side of the market when the breakout finally takes place. When the price moves out of the trading range, these traders are forced to abandon their positions. It is possible to take this rule one step further and say the greater the rise in open interest during the consolidation, the greater the potential for the subsequent move.
6. Rising prices and a decline in open interest at a rate greater than the seasonal norm is bearish. This market condition develops because short covering and not fundamental demand is fueling the rising price trend. In these circumstances money is flowing out of the market. Consequently, when the short covering has run its course, prices will decline.
7. If prices are declining and the open interest rises more than the seasonal average, this indicates that new short positions are being opened. As long as this process continues it is a bearish factor, but once the shorts begin to cover it turns bullish.
8. A decline in both price and open interest indicates liquidation by discouraged traders with long positions. As long as this trend continues, it is a bearish sign. Once open interest stabilizes at a low level, the liquidation is over and prices are then in a position to rally again.

Let's summarize these with an easy-to-read chart: 

 

So, price action increasing in an uptrend and open interest on the rise are interpreted as new money coming into the market (reflecting new buyers) and is considered bullish. Now, if the price action is rising and the open interest is on the decline, short sellers covering their positions are causing the rally. Money is therefore leaving the marketplace and is considered bearish.

If prices are in a downtrend and open interest is on the rise, chartists know that new money is coming into the market, showing aggressive new short selling. This scenario will prove out a continuation of a downtrend and a bearish condition. Lastly, if the total open interest is falling off and prices are declining, the price decline is being caused by disgruntled long position holders being forced to liquidate their positions. Technicians view this scenario as a strong position technically because the downtrend will end as all the sellers have sold their positions. The following chart therefore emerges:



When open interest is high at a market top and the price falls off dramatically, this scenario should be considered bearish. In other terms, this means that all of the long position holders that bought near the top of the market are now in a loss position, and their panic to sell keeps the price action under pressure.
 

 

Hanung toys:-Emerging star in the textile segment

 

Scripscan:-Hanung Toys and Textiles Ltd
Cmp:243
Target:370
Return percentage:50%
Duration:6-9 months
Traded in:NSE-BSE

Introduction: Hanung Toys & Textiles is engaged in the business of manufacturing and exporting of soft toys.It also manufactures and exports of home furnishings.The company is basically an export player deriving 75% of its revenues from overseas markets, mainly Europe & US.

I like it because:-

1)Hanung is the biggest organised soft toy manufacturer in India today and it hopes to be a 1000crs company by march 2010.The company ended doing 490crs in fy07-08.

2)Hardly input cost problems.The company saves on raw material by entering into long-term contracts with suppliers. Its plants are located in tax-free and special economic zones,leading to substantial tax savings.Forward hedging and interest swaps also help the company keep a lid on costs.Even the rise of the rupee isn't a cause for concern.

3)Over the next few years, the company is planning to expand its footprint across the country;it is already present in over 4,000 stores, including chains such as Kids Kemp, Lifestyle,Land Mark,Big Bazaar, Globus,Shoppers Stop, Westside, Piramyd, etc.The company is planning to set up 10000 retail outlets over the next two years.To capture the larger pie of the domestic market it has also formed strategic alliances with biggies like Star India & Percept Pictures company.

4)The size of domestic toy industry is around Rs.2000crs.The domestic toy industry is poised to grow at 35-38% p.a. over the next few years on account of rapidly growing Indian population and on higher disposable incomes.Players like hanyung with its large capacity and experience would benefit the most from it.

5)The company has taken number of initiatives to further grow its market share in the export market.A new and vibrant team has been put into place for Product design, Product development, Sales and Marketing.To have a good balance on the market development,its emphasis is on growing market share in the US, Europe and Asia-Pacific.The same is expected to catapult hanung toys into a different league.

6)Very recently in april itself the companys newly formed toy unit in noida Sez with an installed capacity of 63 lakh pieces p.a has started its production.Being on the SEZ area the company would avail tax benefits and the revenue share from the soft toy business would get a further boost.

7)The company has got the lucrative licence to manufacture soft toys resembling characters such as Mickey Mouse and Nemo.With growing exposure to Western cartoon characters,this could attract tremendous interest.The company has attempted to grow inorganically and has acquired 100% stake of a Chinese soft toys manufacturer.The same may just give a booster to the margins.

8)Hanung home furnishings business product range includes from sheets and comforters to pillows and sleeping bags.The company has recently set up a Home Furnishings facility at Roorkee with an installed capacity of 3.5crs meters of fabrics processing p.a.The made-ups capacity has been increased form 13 lakh sets to 66 lakh sets p.a.

9)The company is also integrating backwards into manufacturing
fabrics by setting up a 69 lakh meters of weaving capacity.The facility spreaded over 25 acres will enable it income
tax, excise & sales tax benefit and is expected to save income tax to the extent of Rs.8.5crs in FY09 thereby directly boosting the bottomline.The unit is expected to contribute around 45% to the total revenues of Hanung by FY09. In FY07, the home textiles division's contribution was 46% of total revenues, which is expected to
increase to 58% in FY08 & 70% in FY09 post this expansion.

10)The company has got a robust order book position to the tune of 1300crs giving huge revenue visibility.The company has received numerous enquiries from client which can trasnform into major orders going forward.The companys Customers include likes of IKEA, Asda, and Metro.IKEA is a EURO 19.6 bn company and sells home furnishings & other housewares in about 270 stores in 35 countries.With Ikea looking to outsource most of its portfolio from india,Hanung fortunes may just change completely.Already it has bagged a single major order of 600crs from the former.Few more such orders could prove a world of good for the company and it shareholders.

Conclusion:-At present price of 243 the company is quoting at less than 8x fy09 earnings of 31rs.Considering the capacity expansion,increase in size,robust outlook and huge demand for both of its home furnishing and soft toys products,I assign a target of 370 giving 1 year forward multiple of 12x.A very solid and a safe bet.



Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at:-arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

Piramyd Retail:-The next big thing in the retail industry

 

This too from Mr.Arun's Brokerage Report a few days back.

Arun is my online friend from kolkatha and he is from Broker side.

I recommend you to take this call. As his call worked out 90% of the times

 

Scripscan:Piramyd Retail Ltd
Cmp:140
Target:250
Duration:6-9 months
Traded in:Nse-bse.

Why i feel piramyd retail can give huge returns going forward:-

1)Piramyd Retail is a lifestyle retail and convenience store chain with over 42 stores spread over more than 10 lakh square feet, operating under the Piramyd Megastore and Trumart brands. The company has been recently acquired by the indiabulls group and its retail plans include an investment of Rs1,500 crore to build 30 hypermarkets over the next 15-18 months.

2)Major advantage of piramyd retail stems from the fact that indiabulls has huge real estate advantage on its side thus hedging out land supply and rentals which has off late become a major cost to the retailers.Indiabulls has also got broking and consumer finance divisions and they plan to acquire several clients through piramyd retails stores making a win-win situation for both the company.

3)Few years ago, Piramyd retail was seen as a strong competitor to players such as Shopper's Stop and pantaloon retail. However, an unclear growth vision saw the company slipping even as the competition picked up steam in recent years and it failed to cash in effectively on the first-mover advantage.With indiabulls behind now the company may just get considered among the leaders over the next few years.

Logic:-Indiabulls since its ipo over the last 4 years has been a 50 bagger.Whatever the group touched transformed into gold.You name it brokerage,real estate,consumer finance.Now it plans to be the leader in the retail sector.With the dynamic and aggresive management am sure they would be able to satiate the desires.

Conclusion:-The Indian retail industry in valued at about $300 billion and is expected to grow to $427 billion in 2010 and $637 billion in 2015.The Indian retailing sector is at an inflexion point where the growth of organised retail and growth in the consumption by Indians is going to adopt a higher growth trajectory. The Indian population is witnessing a significant change in its demographics.A large young working population with median age of 24 years, nuclear families in urban areas, along with increasing working-women population and emerging opportunities in the services sector are going to be the key growth drivers of the organised retail sector.The company hopes to capitalise on the huge oppurtuinty and it aims to catapult itself in the top league.Now,Piramyd retail is not a valuation play.Its a play on hope,prospects and pedigree vision.I dont wanna assign any target but still for sake of my esteemed members i put a target of 250 to be acheived over the next 2-3 quarters.


Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at:-arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

Gokul Refoils and Solvent Ltd : IPO Analysis

Offer Price band Rs 175 – Rs 195
Face Value Rs
Shares Offered 71.58 lakhs
Listing (Stock Exchange) NSE, BSE)
Offer Open Date May 08, 2008
Offer Close Date May 13, 2008

Gokul Refoils and Solvent Ltd (GRSL ) is in the business of Solvent Extraction, refining of Edible oils and Vanaspati manufacturing.
The company has 680 TPD of seed processing, 600 TPD of Solvent Extraction, 1200 TPD of refining and 200 TPD of Vanaspati
manufacturing capacities.GRSL has a cogeneration power plant of 500 KWH at its Gandhidham unit.The manufacturing units are
situated at Sidhpur (Sidhpur unit, North Gujarat), Anjar (Gandhidham unit, Kutch), Navi Pardi (Surat unit, South Gujarat) and Kutch (Wind mills).

Increasing share of retail sales:
The company is making constant efforts to shift its business model in favour of retail sales. Its bulk sales share
has been decreasing over the years and now forms 63% of the total sales.Retail sales have increased from 18% in FY06 to 37% for the eight-month
period ended November 2007. With the increasing focus on retail sales,the overall margins of the company are set to improve significantly.

Strategic location of manufacturing plants: All its plants are strategically located near the source of raw materials to ensure cost savings and for
optimum logistic benefits. It is the only edible oil company in India to be located near the source of raw material thereby ensuring significant
benefits in terms of logistics cost, time savings and no wastage.

Capacity Expansion: The company has been continuously increasing its manufacturing capacities. The refining capacity was increased from 1100
TPD in FY05 to 1200 TPD in FY07 and shall increase to 1500 TPD in FY08. A new Soyabean plant of 1500 TPD is being set up to increase the seed
processing and solvent extraction capacity from 1280 TPD to 2780 TPD.

Flexible manufacturing capabilities: GRSL's manufacturing facilities can produce a broad variety of oil & derivative products. The existing setup is
such that it can switch over from processing of one type of oil to another type of oil with no down time. Hence, the company is not dependent on
any particular source of raw material, whether imports or local purchases and also in case of failure of a particular type of crop, the company is less
affected as it can refine some other oil or can also import oil as it is near to the ports.

Wide distribution network: GRSL has a well established network spread across 19 states catered by its 18 C&F agents and their 802 distributors,
3 depots, 15 brokers and their 295 resellers, distributing its products through a total 1133 bulk points of presence.

Valuation:
At the upper end of the price band of Rs 195, the issue is available at PE of 8.2x its FY08 (E) EPS of Rs 23.8 and 7.4x at the lower
end of Rs 175, on fully diluted equity capital of Rs 26.4 crores. The company has some inherent strength such as strategic location of plants
and flexible-manufacturing capabilities that can switch over from processing of one type of oil to another type of oil with no down time.

Also, the company is now focusing on increasing its retail sales, which have higher margins, compared to manufacturing. Its competitor Ruchi
Soya is a very large player in terms of size and scale and its brands are also well recognized and accepted in the market place. Gokul Refoils has a
long way to go before it establishes significant scale in a business that is mostly driven by volumes, as the margins at both the operating and PAT
level are quite low.

Buy : Lanco Global Systems for Short Term

Buy : Lanco Global Systems

BSE Code :  532368

CMP : RS 95.50

Target : RS115

Returns : 20%

 

Company Overview :

 

Established in 1994, and are a leading provider of high-quality information technology solutions and services to a wide range of discerning global customers. Lanco Global have  headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia and a technology center in Hyderabad, India. Lanco Global Systems is the US based technology arm of the Lanco Group, a $450 million, diversified multinational conglomerate based in Hyderabad, India. The Lanco Group's enterprises include power generation, engineering and construction, manufacturing, property development as well as information technology.

Three Month Chart

 

Area of Expertise

 

BI Readiness Assessment: Lanco BI Consulting team provides strategic guidance to select BI application area of maximum ROI and establish a roadmap to successful implementation. Enterprise Reporting: Lanco has a unique practice to develop enterprise wide unified reporting and information delivery, based on roles. Domain Specific Analytics: Lanco has expertise to design, develop and deploy business area specific analytical application with drill-down, slice-dice, scorecarding and dashboarding capabilities. Application Integration: Lanco offers Data Integration solutions to provide unified view deriving data from multiple RDBMS, OLAP or heterogeneous sources. Reports Migration: Lanco utilizes its off-shore capabilities to provide large scale conversion/ migration of reports from 3GL to Cognos environment. Reporting Systems Maintenance: Lanco can provide dedicated off-shore team to support full-cycle enhancement, round-the-clock maintenance of mission-critical enterprise reporting systems. The team provides total support for data replication, back-up, restoration and format conversion. Data Preparation for EAI: Lanco helps in automating the data cleansing process for loading to data mart or data warehouse by specialized tools and cleansing algorithms.

 

Market Calls View :

 

Lanco global looks good for 105 in very short term ,after which stock can se rates of 115 to 130
Compnay has posted excelent results ,net sales up 205%.And its net profit jumped 352%

On the daily charts stock shows complete V formation which indicates a huge rally in coming days

 

 

 

Annual results in brief

(Rs crore)

	Mar ' 08	Mar ' 07	Mar ' 06	Mar ' 05	Mar ' 04
Sales	128.89	45.39	10.85	6.11	2.88
Operating profit	30.72	8.15	0.93	1.13	0.74
Interest	0.68	0.54	0.16	0.01	0.07
Gross profit	30.18	7.79	0.83	1.14	0.72
EPS (Rs)	9.92	2.19	0.28	0.61	0.22

 

 

Recent News

 

Lanco Global Systems' director resigns From the board.
Lanco Global Systems has announced that P G K Murthy has resigned as director of the company with effect from 28 April 2008.
The company made this announcement after the trading hours on Friday, 02 May 2008.

 

 

 

 

 

What You Need To Know When Buying Penny Stocks?

 

Penny stocks are securities or stocks which are sold by smaller new companies. They are generally sold because companies are seeking money for expansion, basic operations, and even for commencement of business. This article includes:

• Know in depth on penny stocks
• How a dishonest penny brokerage firm can cause trouble to you?
• Why shouldn't penny stocks occupy a major share in your portfolio?

Penny stocks are securities or stocks which are sold by smaller new companies. They are generally sold because companies are seeking money for expansion, basic operations, and even for commencement of business. Penny stocks get their name because they retail for so little often less than five dollars, and sometimes for just a fraction of a cent. You can easily get a list of penny stocks from brokers who specialize in this type of stock and penny stocks lists are now very popular online and to subscription services.

The problem is that penny stocks are extremely risky. In fact, some larger investment firms refuse to deal with penny stocks at all. This is because according to some statistics up to 70% of investors end up losing money on penny stocks. When you buy the stocks, chances are excellent that you will never see the stocks or your initial money again. Added to this problem, a number of penny stockbrokers have been accused of fraudulent and dishonest business practices which have further separated investors from their hard-earned money. This does not mean that you should never invest in penny stocks. The fact is that it is possible to make an incredible profit through this type of stock. Some stocks retail for less than a penny initially but end up costing several dollars, resulting in incredible profit. The problem is that this is a rare occurrence. On the plus side, buying penny stocks is cheap and you only need a few winning stocks to make considerable money.

What You Need To Know When Buying Penny Stocks

Experts suggest that investors interested in buying penny stocks orient themselves as much as possible at this type of stock. Experts also suggest that investors should:

Research Any Brokerage Firms Specializing In Penny Stocks Carefully

If the company uses hard sell techniques, promises you insider information, or makes unreasonable claims about penny stocks, walk away. A reputable broker will admit that most investors will lose money with penny stocks. Anyone who promotes penny stocks as a sure bet to or an unrealistic and tempting scheme is not being honest with you. Make sure that you also investigate whether a brokerage firm had any complaints against it. Currently, several such firms are facing serious legal problems from disgruntled past customers.

Research Any Companies are Considering Buying Pot Penny Stocks From Carefully

Only buy penny stocks from a company that has very experienced and proven business people at the helm, does business in the market that is currently booming, sells excellent and unpatented products or services, has an excellent business model, and seems to have a real chance of success. You should only invest in a company that honestly has all these features.

Be Aware That Brokers and Brokerage Firms Often Artificially Increase Prices of Penny Stocks

They may start selling large amounts of stocks that they have bought in order to create a false sense of demand. Once they have sold their stocks, the price of the penny stocks will drop dramatically, making your initial investment almost worthless.

Don't Make Penny Stocks Your Main Portfolio

Experts suggest that penny stocks take up 5% to 10% at an absolute maximum of your overall investment portfolio. You should be prepared to lose any money that you invest in penny stocks and should never borrow to invest in these highly volatile securities.

How This Penny Stocks Are Beneficial To Buyers

Penny stocks are very attractive to investors because they are so inexpensive. For a thousand rupees, you can buy literally thousands of stocks. There's also a very small chance that a company that you are investing in will suddenly experience tremendous profits. While this is rare, just one or two such incidents can build you a nice profit. There are investors who have made literally tens of thousands of rupees from penny stocks within a short period of time.

Nifty Support and Resistance For May

Nifty : 5228
Maximum Target for May: 5358
Support : 4978

Positive Point :

1)US Stock Market Rallies and Down Touches 13000
2)Yen Trading firm at 105.50/Dollar
3)Rupee Weakening agains dollar currently at 40.44 good for I.T Stocks
4)Recent Crash in commodities like gold ,silver, aluminium..etc

Negative Point:

1)Inflation at All time high at 7.57%. This may weaken Banking stocks a bit
2)Profit booking may happen in nifty stocks as there is rally of 600 pts in last 15 days alone

3 Month Chart



Nifty Stratergy
Nifty Traders are requested not to go for calls at current situation as RSI levels
are just near to the oversold situation. And peoples those who are holding calls are
requested to square of their holdings at higher levels. Our Nifty Maximum target remains at 5358.

One can short nifty at 5300 levels or 5338 levels for a target of 5128 and 5056 with a stop loss of 5386.And 4978 remains the great support for Nifty.

For Investors
Investors are recommended to use even a small dips to buy their stocks.Till now no panic signals are seen. And There is a small gap near 4990 which remain notclosed. If nifty reaches this point this this a huge oppurtunity to enter your favorite stocks.

Short Term Investors or requested to stick to I.T related stocks and to stay away from banking sectors till Inflation concers are over.

Regards,
Rajandran R
Author - Marketcalls

Pyramid Saimira Theatre Ltd : Stock Analysis and Buy Call

Buy: Pyramid Saimira Theatre Ltd.

CMP : Rs 316

Target : Rs 380 and 420

 

 

India's largest theatre chain, Pyramid Saimira Theatres (PSTL) operates in all categories - Film exhibition - multiplexes, cineplexes and single screens;

Film distribution and also in content production for TV / films . Headquartered in Chennai, it commands 44 multiplexes with 113 screens, and 590

single screens. It has now expanded its (film exhibition) business to Malaysia, China and the US. Its film exhibition model is asset-light (all the theatres are

rented not owned). PSTL has recently ventured into film production and TV production by launching a subsidiary, Pyramid Saimira Productions Limited

(PSPL). PSTL uses an end-to-end Digital Cinema Solution in few of its theatres, and this is set to revolutionize the distribution and exhibition system in

the Indian film industry.

 

 

PSTL has got almost 45% of the "Quality screens" under its banner in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. As screens in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh

contribute 75% of the South Indian film box office collection, PSTL will benefit from its strategy of entering Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh markets. The

cheapest form of entertainment in Tier-I and –II cities is films. PSTL has targeted those cities with Class A and B theatres. Class A theatres would

contribute 45% to the domestic box-office collection and Class B 41.8% in FY09. PSTL is the only theatre chain operating in Tier-I and -II cities in south

of India and hence has the edge in scaling up the number of screens and capturing a major share of the market.

 

 

Wider release format would help producers milk a film in the first three weeks of release by distributing a large number of digitized copies via satellite

and also curb piracy to a certain extent. This would create new "first release" theatres, which would fetch revenue from earlier "no revenue" areas for

PSTL and also get back some revenue from the piracy market to the main stream benefiting all stakeholders of the film industry. Pyramid Saimira

Productions Ltd., (PSPL), its subsidiary would also release about 30 films in the four South Indian States in FY09.

 

 

For the year ending Mar-09, the company is expected to do earnings of Rs 23.8 per share [on expanded capital]. At current price of Rs 315, it is available at

fairly attractive valuations of 13 times FY-09 earnings. PSTL is well poised to ride the growth prospects of the entertainment industry.

Key Concerns: The company does not have any previous experience of gigantic scaling up of operations and managing a big size business. The film

industry is highly dependent on the quality of films ("content"). If the quality of films released in the coming years does not suit audiences' taste, PSTL's net

revenue would be hit. This is perceived as an industry risk and is applicable to all producers, distributors and exhibitors

Buy : TVS Motors : Marketcalls

Buy : TVS Motors

CMP : Rs43

Target : Rs 56

Time :  3months

Upside : 30% approx

 

Poitive Point  : Some Positive News started flown from this company and here are some

 

 

 

Six Month Charts

Ducati soon to enter Indian bike mkt: Sources

 

There's some more action on wheels- Ducati, the global bike player will soon announce its plans to enter India, reports CNBC-TV18 quoting sources.

The global CEO of the company will visit India on May 6 and announce the launch of five bikes. Sources also say that they are likely to have a tie-up with an Indian partner and at the forefront is TVS Motor. TVS Motor, however, has declined to comment.

 

 

TVS Motor Company posts 4.8% growth in April 2008; Exports grow at 41.4%

Hosur, May 1, 2008: TVS Motor Company has posted 4.81% growth registering total two wheeler sales of 109,937 units in April 2008 against 104,893 units in the corresponding period of the previous year. During the month, the company's motorcycle sales stood at 58,202 units in comparison to 53,499 units recorded in April 2007. In the scooter segment, TVS Scooty recorded 19,034 units in March 2008 in comparison to 18,798 units in the corresponding period the previous year. Exports continued its upward growth trend, recording an increase of approximately 41.49% registering 10,213 units of two wheelers in April 2008 as against 7,231 units in the corresponding period of the previous year. In keeping with its intention to introduce seasonal limited editions every year, TVS Motor Company has signed up with the All England Lawn Tennis Club (AELTC) as a licensee and will bring out two limited edition scooters, designs of which will be inspired by the spirit of Wimbledon. These scooters will appeal to women with sporty attitude and will be launched to coincide with forthcoming the Wimbledon season. The company will further strengthen its premium segment with the launch of the Fuel Injection variant of the Apache RTR. Innovative technology, elegant design and excellent ride dynamics make the Apache RTR EFI a new showcase of technology. This bike offers riders the instant thrill with the superior performance of a fuel injected 160cc engine. It will be the first time that the company is offering fuel injection technology in the 160 cc category.   Regards, Rajandran R