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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Nifty Bull operator Game Starts

Now the operator game is to save nifty and manage to close above 3800.


I guess you remember their last games to save nifty to close above
4200 and 4000.


If we are still to be in bear market then next bear operator game is
to manage to close below 3800 and bull operator's game is to save
nifty and managed to close above 3600.

Long the market with stop just below 3800.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Nifty Swing Charts Updated

Bulls are in control. Buy nifty only above 3885 or in panic selling.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Nifty Updated Swing Charts

 
Nifty Spot  : 3985.25
 
The Chart shown here is a 3 day 15 min chart. And from the chart it is infered that strong resistance at
4020 region and curretly we are in oversold region so expect a small bounce back at this level may also
extended to couple of days. But still the primary downtrend is very weak wih sensex support at 12500 and any
downside below 12500 in sensex will definitely target 10,000. And also from the weekly charts 20 day EMA
coming near 4420 with is the definite boundary for the bull and the bearzone. i.e Anthing above 4420 is a
 investors buy
 
And from the swing charts anything above 4040 will target 4230 once again and anything below 3970 will
target 12,500 in sensex.
 
 
Regards,
Rajandan R
 
 

Saturday, September 27, 2008

SpiderStreamer - Live Streaming Quotes

SpiderStreamer is a "Live Streaming Quotes" software. Streamer is a thin client software which dispays you live market information at ZERO second delay.. some of the features Include Live Market Quotes (BSE or NSE ), Intraday Chart
Market Summary, Scrip Summary. It works only during Market hours

Get the Trial Version Here
 
 
Enjoy the game. I guess it will be useful for those who trading with ICICIdirect, Reliance Money and
for those those who are not having any trading platform and those who want to monitor their shares
or F&O scripts run time.
 
Have a nice try!!!
 

Exploring NIFTYBEES--- Index ETF Fund

ISIN code INF732E01011
NSE symbol NIFTYBEES
Series EQ
Reuters code NBES.NS
Face value Rs. 10
CMP : Rs 404

 
Niftybees is an index fund which is traded like stocks in the exchange(ETF)..its the simplest way to invest in the stock market. no need to research about companies,no need to study about management and so on..just buying niftybees at every fall wil fetch good returns in the coming years. these are the positive aspects.Doing a SIP(systematic investment) is a good idea. Even benchmarkfunds provide dividend for NIFTYBEES (colletive of the dividends all 50 stocks). They have given Rs 5 per share at record date Sep 15 2008.

Negative aspects:
* low volume (little hard to buy or sell big quantities)
 
The first Indian exchange traded fund -- Nifty BeES from Benchmark Mutual Fund tracks the S&P CNX Nifty Index, is structured as an open-end fund but unlike ordinary mutual funds, is listed on the NSE and trades like a stock. So, to buy or sell Nifty BEES, you have to deal with a broker who executes your transactions for a brokerage.Apart from NIFTY BEES, there is also Junior BEES ( Nifty Junior Index) and Bank BEES (Bank index), and yes LIQUID BEES (world's first liquid ETF) and GOLD BEES also.
 

Advantages of Nifty BeES

Nifty BeES is Simple: Nifty BeES can be bought / sold like a share through any NSE terminal at prices available on the screen. The underlying portfolio of Nifty BeES very closely replicates that of the S&P CNX Nifty. Hence, Nifty BeES tracks the movement of S&P CNX Nifty.


Nifty BeES is Economical: Nifty BeES is a no load scheme. The annual expense ratio including management fees is a maximum of 0.80% of the Daily Average Net Assets, which is one of the lowest for any mutual fund scheme in India. The costs reduce further to 0.65%, for assets over Rs.500 crore.


Nifty BeES is Convenient: As it is listed and traded on the NSE, Nifty BeES can be bought / sold throughout the trading day just by a call to your broker. This gives you the power to react swiftly to changes in the market. You can even place limit orders. Nifty BeES can be held in your DP account with other portfolio holdings.


Nifty BeES is Liquid: The structure of Nifty BeES attracts liquidity from various sources such as buying / selling by investors, arbitrage with index futures, arbitrage by authorized participants with the underlying shares.
 
Nifty BeES is Neutral: The performance of Nifty BeES is simply the result of performance of shares in the S&P CNX Nifty Index and demand & supply in the market. There is no Fund manager bias.


Nifty BeES is Transparent: As Nifty BeES replicates the S&P CNX Nifty, investors can know at any given point of time where and how much is invested in each stock.


Nifty BeES gives Instant Diversification: Investing in just one unit gives exposure to fifty shares of the S&P CNX Nifty. This allows investors to spread risk with one single decision.


Nifty BeES is an Equitable Structure: The unique "in-kind" mechanism of creating / redeeming Nifty BeES by exchanging a pre-defined portfolio ensures that long-term investors do not bear the cost of short term trading as observed in traditional Open-ended structure. This insulates long-term investors from short-term trading activity
 
Real-time NAV is available on the following website
 
 
NIFTYBEES is very good for diversification.. It reflects the NIFTY 50 stocks index and easy to track.. If you are looking for diversified low risk medium-long term investment then this ETF is a good option..

The drawback is currently the volumne traded on ETF is very low. It is difficult to buy & sell in large quantities..

ETFs are very popular in US and traded in huge volumes. In India it is yet to attract the required attention..
 

View from Mr.PonnuSwamy Padmanaban


NIFTYBEES is good avenue for long-term regular investment.

22% - 30% annualised return from NIFTY

The following analysis shows that 22% - 30% annualised return is possible from NIFTYBEES (i.e. NIFTY) from Rupee Cost Averaging (RCA) and Value Averaging (VA) respectively.

Starting Period: Jan 2002
Till: Jul 2008
Monthly Investment: Rs 10,000

RCA Return - 22% Annualised
VA Return - 30% Annualised

Illustration: http://picasaweb.google.com/ponnuswamy/Misc#5250548403850847170

Value Averaging:
http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/12/pf/expert/ask_expert/index.htm

Courtesy - Annualised Calculation : Vetapalem Sridhar
 
 


 

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Nifty Swing Charts and ICICI Positional Targets

Nifty Spot :4103
 
Inference from the Swing Charts of - 4 day(15 min) Intraday Nifty charts
Which shows that the primary trend of the nifty is getting weaker day by
day. And the falling RSI and the stocastics signals further downtrend is
possible if nifty is not able to move above the recent swing high 4130
and any dip below 4177 will take nifty towards 4000 hardly and movement
above 4130 will take nifty towards 4225 once again.
 
ICICI Positional Targets :
 
Bullish Outlook:
 
1)Looks Bullish above 600 for a target of 608 with stop loss  at 593
2)Looks Bullish above 610 with stop near 599 for a target of 623
 
Bearish Outlook
 
1)Bearish outlook below 588 for a target of 574 and 560 with stoploss near 600
 
 
 
Recommended to play this game in futures. With Stop loss near
 
 
 
Happy Trading!!!

Swing Trade in Punj Lloyd Explained

 
Stock : Punj Lloyd
CMP : Rs 304.85
 
Here is an intresting Swing Trade from Punj Lloyd which shows the positive movement
3 day 15 min charts shows that stock has further uptrend above the recent swing high
306.85. And the current swing low is 304.85 as show in the below. Also the stock trades
above 20 period EMA and the rising RSI shows signals a bullish call in this stock.
 
So a good trade can be initiated if the stock crosses above the recent swing high 306.85 for a target of
311 and 315 with stoploss anywhere below the recent swing low 304.85
 
Happy Trading!!!
 
Regards,
Rajandran R
Author - Marketcalls
 
 

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Nifty Swing Trade Hourly Chart




The Chart shown here is a 9 day hourly chart.
As Per this swing chart we are trending upwards only if we are able to close above
4303 and trending downwards if we are manage to trade below 4117 for couple of hours.

Upside Swing :
The previous swing high is 4207 and any trade above 4207 will target 4250 and
any trade above 4303 will target 4450.

Downside Swing :
The Current Swing Low is near 4117. Any trade below 4117 in nifty will target 4000 levels and almost no support below  4117... so even it may take to 3800 levels.

Also bollinger bands showing weaker signal as the candles closed exactly below the
20 period EMA and RSI likely to trending downwards as shown in the hourly
charts. Also as said earlier still the gap at 4090-4120 left unfilled in nifty futures which
will act as strong support
 
If you wanna learn some swing trade you can try out here
 
Happy Trading!!!!

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Nifty Supports Near 4090

 
Still a gap near 4090 left unfilled which may act as a intermediate as of now.
Failing to close below 4090 may target nifty towards 3800 once again.
 


Hourly Charts



As per the houly charts nifty retraced 38.2&(fibonacci) from its recent high 4303.
And also stochastic looks highly oversold.And RSI is still in rising mode from the with a retracement upto 50%. So a possible upside rally may extend upto 4225. And on the downside Support comes near 4120-4090 range. And any closing below 4090 will strictly take us to 3800 levels

Monday, September 22, 2008

Crude trading near Major Resistance



Crude : $108/Barrel
 
If crude is able to trade above 111.77 where the 200day Moving average comes exactly. Then the following targets are possible $118, $125 with is the fibonnaci
retracements of 50% and 60% respectively taken between the recent high $147 and the
most recent low $90 as shown in the picture
 
Check our past view here.

Nifty is getting Weaker

Nifty CMP : 4223

May be a Gap down opening. Because Nifty Hourly Charts showing Overbought and falling RSI and Stocastic Levels

Trading System Setup from Baby Pips

 
Here is a Simple Example for the Trading system setup to Backtest
 
Trading System Requirements

Trade on daily chart (swing trading)
5 EMA applied to the close
10 EMA applied to the close
Stochastic (10,3,3)
RSI (14)

Trading Rules
Stop Loss = 2-3%

Entry RulesEnter long if:
The 5 EMA crosses above the 10 EMA and both stochastic lines are heading up (do not enter if the stochastic lines are already in the overbought territory)
RSI is greater than 50


For the above trading system I scanned using my Iris software where
iam able to get the followig results

NSE Stocks

GAIL(417)
HINDUNILVR(250)
ONGC CORP.(1060)


NSE F&O Stocks

ALLHABAD BNK(64.80)
CUMMINSIND(310)
EDUCOMP(3690)
FEDERAL BANK(222)
GAIL(417)
GTOFFSHORE(524)
HINDUNILVR(250)
ONGC CORP.(1060)


Exit Rules

Exit when the 5 EMA crosses the 10 EMA in the opposite direction of your trade OR if RSI crosses back to 50

Good to backtrack at this time to know about the expectation of profitablility To know more about the trading system visit
http://www.babypips.com/school/can_you_handle_the_truth.html
 

Few Facts from Trading Babypips

Your trading system should attempt to accomplish 2 goals:

-Be able to identify a trend as early as possible
-Be able to find ways to avoid whipsaws (confirm your trend)

If it is profitable, then you trade your system live on a demo account for at least 2 months. This will help you get an idea of how you would trade your system when the market is moving. It is a lot different trading live than manually backtesting.

Once you've demo traded your system for at least 2 months and you are still profitable, you are then ready to trade your system live with real money. However, you must always remember to stick to your rules no matter what!
 
There are 6 steps to developing your system:

Find your timeframe
Find indicators to help you identify trends early
Find indicators to help you avoid whipsaws and confirm your trend
Define your risk
Define your entry and exit
Write your trading system rules down and ALWAYS stick to those rules!

There are 3 phases to testing your system:

Back test- go back and time and move your chart forward one candle at a time. Trade your system according to its rules and record your trades to see if it ends up being profitable.If it is profitable, then you trade your system live on a demo account for at least 2 months. This will help you get an idea of how you would trade your system when the market is moving. It is a lot different trading live than manually back testing.

Once you've demo traded your system for at least 2 months and you are still profitable, you are then ready to trade your system live with real money. However, you must always remember to stick to your rules no matter what!
 
YOU MUST ALWAYS STICK TO YOUR TRADING SYSTEM RULES!

If you have tested your system thoroughly through back testing and by trading it live on a demo for at least 2 months, then you should feel confident enough to know that as long as you follow your rules, you will end up profitable in the long run.

Trust your system and trust yourself!

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Simple Excel Filter based on SMA - Backtesting of Simple Trading System

 
Here is a simple Excel Filter to Find out Hot Nifty Stocks.

And i use to compare the 30day and 50 day Simple Moving Average with the current price
and If current price is greater than the 30 and 50 day Simple Moving Average(SMA)
then i like to rate as a hot Nifty Stock

You can get the SMA values from moneycontrol website

http://www.moneycontrol.com/technicals/simplymovingavgs.php

And After Scanning Using MS Excel i found  these stocks from Nifty
matched the criteria

Cipla
GAIL
HDFC Bank
HUL
Maruti Suzuki
NTPC
PNB

So Its time to track the performance of these Nifty stocks and i like to produce a weekly report
based on the performance of this simple trading system.if the performance is good over a week
then the same will be extended to the non nifty stocks.

Here Iam not betting on the trading system. Just Simply  Backtesting

You can download it from here.... With just a simple formula and a filter to find out
whether a stock is hot for the next week

http://rajandran.googlepages.com/StockFilter19thSep.xls



Futher Filters RSI(14 day) and Stoch(5,3) are added and the stock
is picked if the RSI>50 and stoch is facing upwards and not above 80.

If we apply this filter we would get these reults

Cipla(232.85)

- RSI>50 and stoch facing upwards
- Selected - RSI Value - 54.53 and Stoch - Upwards and not above 80


GAIL(418.15) - RSI>50 and stoch facing upwards - Selected

- RSI>50 and stoch facing upwards
- Selected - RSI Value - 55.95 and Stoch - Upwards and not above 80

HDFC Bank(1,299.55)

- RSI>50 and stoch facing upwards
- Selected - RSI Value - 57.02 and Stoch - Upwards and not above 80

HUL(245.20)

- RSI>50 and stoch facing upwards
- Selected - RSI Value - 52.46 and Stoch - Upwards and not above 80

Maruti Suzuki(741.05)

- RSI>50 and stoch facing upwards
- Selected - RSI Value - 64.66 and Stoch - Upwards and not above 80

NTPC(182.95)

- RSI>50 and stoch facing upwards
- Selected - RSI Value - 58.97 and Stoch - Upwards and not above 80

PNB(523.65)

- RSI>50 and stoch facing upwards
- Selected - RSI Value - 59.75 and Stoch - Upwards and not above 80

so almost all the stocks are ready to be backtest for the week.
And this is a continious process. i.e if the stock fails meeting the
SMA filter criteria and RSI and stocastic criteria it.. We should simply exit the stock and the process to be repreated every end of the day until the week ends.

And you may further filter based on ADX, EMA, Money Flow , Candle Stick Patterns,Fibonacci, Pivot Points until you got satisfied.... But the ultimate aim is to find a profitable trade. And if the trade yield you 5-10% returns. It is considererd as a success and if fails the above said criteria then it means your stop loss got hit.

Remember this trading system may be a failure... Here to backtest the trading
system only as i used SMA like 30 and 50 based on the available data on the net
and also easy to track..

Disclaimer: Not advise to get into trade based on this info as the aim of this game is to find a profitable strategy

Happy Backtesting Week!!!!

Free Delivery based Research Reports from Marketcalls.in

Hi,
 
Iam proud to introducing  a new research based delivery report web-blog
 
I guess its time to start a new service exclusively for our esteemed
Marketcalls readers and to our MarketBits sms subscribers
not in a business motive but simply at free of cost. Just to protect myself
from content theft and privacy iam just moving my research based delivery
reports alone to www.marketcalls.in
 
So If you are intrested then simply send your mail to invitation@marketcalls.in
to access my research reports. Remember only GMAIL ID is required to access my
research report requires GMAIL ID. So Please mail your gmail id to get your invitation to
access our research reports.
 
And as usual general anaytics about the market and related stocks will be
discussed in our www.marketcalls.org web-blog.
 
 
Regards,
Rajandran R
Author - Market Calls

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Nifty and Fibonnaci Retracement

Nifty CMP : 4245.25


Chart 1 shows the fibonacci retracement between the recent high 4558 and recent low 3800 as per this retracement we almost completed the 61.8% retracement which comes near 4270. Dont know whether more steam is left upside or not!!!

For Bigger Clarity Visit
http://rajandran.googlepages.com/NiftyFiboRetracement1.jpg


 
Chart 2

Chart 2 shows the fibonacci retracement between the head for formed near 4625 and th recent low. As per this retracement we already completed 50% retracement and the 61.8% retracement comes near 4326 shows some more upside remains though the hourly charts indicate oversold levels .The Uptrend may posibly take some divergence dowside here to meet support 4120 where the gap remains unfilled in Nifty Futures.

For Bigger Clarity Visit
http://rajandran.googlepages.com/NiftyFiboRetracement2.jpg
 



And One More thing to point out.... we are trading near the 20 day EMA which comes near 4260 and 50day EMA
at 4294 as per daily charts which may act as a resistance.

I dont think nothing changes overnight. If you see any upside more then it is good time to book your profits and get back to the market later in my tradng perspective. Iam not too much bullish or bearish at this time. Just to be neutal at this time.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Crude Technicals for the Week

Crude : $104.45/Barell
 
- News: Oil jumps above $104 a barrel on US bailout plan
 
Oil prices shot up more than $6 a barrel Friday, breaking back into $100 territory as a sweeping government plan to rescue the imperiled U.S. financial system emboldened investors to re-enter the markets.Crude has climbed over $13 in the past three days as US the government carries out a historic intervention into the financial system.
 
Technicals
 
Crude ultimately retraced from $90 as expected to bounce anyhwere 
between the support levels $97 and $86. for the week and And Now crude
is trading near the 20 day EMA(104.95)  resistance.
 
And the RSI is moving towards the 50 levels with stocastic facing upwards, Which is a bullish sign that 20 day EMA resistance may got broken easily. And crude may possibly
test 200 day MA $111.82 more positively by this week.
 

Nifty Hourly Charts and Shakira Hips



Nifty CMP : 4245.25

There is a over exitement in the market. Now the Euphoria is about the
US government plans to rescue banks from billions of dollars in bad debt and the BAN on short selling in US markets for the next two weeks which further boost up our instinct for higher targets 4500 and 4800.

But my hourly charts shows limited upside may be extend upto 4330.
Hourly Charts are like shakira's Hip... Just remember "Hips Dont Lie...!" 

And 4330 is the 61.8% retracement line drawn between the recent high 4625 and recent low of 3800.

In the Hourly Charts almost rsi and stocastics are in overbought levels(>80). So a limited upside is expected in short term. And the so called profit booking may emerge in short term. Though there is dragonfly doji or almost a Bullish hammer pattern is formed in weekly charts the overall week remains positive but with limited upside.So if you are choosing to trade in short term choose you stocks selectively. And dont got struck into the Euphoria... And do remember there is a small gap left unfilled near 4120 the Nifty Future which could be act as a current support for the week. And 4330 will act as a resistance for the current week. Hope market
return to the normal tune.

Happy Investing!!!

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Nifty and Rising VIX


Bulls maintaining 4000.... very hardly not giving up to the bears to close below 4000.....

Long the market until 4000 remains uncracked.... Once we closed below 4000.

It means that Bears are in Control.....


Try to exit your profits as soon as u seen some nice profit in upwards.
Bottom testing may continue... because volatily indcator(fear factor) rises 28% in last

13 trading sessions from 31.28(1st Sep) to 39.56(18th sep).

So Dont think that we would achive higher targets in near term.

Nifty range is anywhere between 4200 and 3800 in shorterm.

And the bottom testing may continue in short term.

Play your game safe!!!

Happy Trading!!!


Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Bharti Airtel Trading Near Major Resistance

CMP : Rs 770
 
 
Inference from 15 min Charts(15days)
 
This is the chart is like to produce this time. It is a 15 min chart of Bharti Airtel.
In My Last post about Bharti Airtel i said that Bharti is repeating a pattern called
H-R1-R2-L-H-R1-R2-L for the past 1 Year. And following the same trend this time.
Iam this time able to spot the retracemnt Point R2 as shown in fig. Remember in
my last posting i said that R1 and R2 are the good points to short. And ofcouse R2
will be followed by new low L.
 
From the 15 day - 15 min chart i found that the past low comes near 695 and the
new Low Shoud be anywhere below the Past low 695. As the 1 Year Trend Channel
for the Bharti is in downtrend. And following the way of the stock behaved.. It is good
to short bharti at cmp with stop loss at 785 is opinion for a target of 700-680.
 
I recommend to go for futures and as per pattern formed one can go for short even near
750 for a target of 700.

For My Last Posting About Bharti Airtel Please visit
Bharti Airtel - Simple Trend Line Analysis

Infterence from EOD Charts :
 
1) MACD Dips below the importane level Zero : Current Value : -8.378 - Bearish
2) Stock Trading below 20 day EMA(799.4) - Bearish Short Term
3) Falling RSI - Bearish and Rising Stocastics (Bearish).
 
In Summary
 
Short Bharti Airtel September futures at current level(CMP : Rs 770) for a target of 720 and 695
with stirct stop loss near 785
 
Maximum loss = Rs 15/Lot = 15*250 = Rs 3750
Maximum Profit =Rs 75/Lot =  Rs 18750
 
Remeber Failing to trade without stop loss may trigger you heavy losses. So do your trade
with strict stop loss.
 
Happy Trading !!!
 

Monday, September 15, 2008

Trying out Simple Mathematics in Nifty


Nifty CMP : 4072.9

Earlier we moved from 3790 to 4550 in just 7 sessions. And i hope this time it would ocur in reverse direction.And of course And tommorow is the 7th session. Hey..Its Just a Blind Speculation from my side.And if happens then i love to call it as a simple mathematics.

Whatever and where ever the market would go... Dont lost your capital on speculation. And this week is full of news and the volatility in the market is rising day by day. Probably market may behave with huge gap upopening and gap down opening. So do your trading with investing lesser amount. So that you will
be in the next game even if you loose it little.

Reduce your risk and make the game safer to play.

Happy Trading!!!!

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Bharti Airtel - Simple Trend Line Analysis


Stock : Bharti Airtel Ltd
CMP : Rs 773


From the charts it is clearly visible that Bharti is in a strong downtrend for the past one year and it is simply repeating the pattern (H-R1-R2-L)-(H-R1-R2-L) (Where H- High, R1 - Retracement 1, R2 - Retracement 2, L - Low ) and this pattern is repeating for past three times.Means every time the stock see a new low it immdiately bounce back to a new high and whenever the stock reaches its lower high it is not immediately ready to give its gain and the stock losses its potential after few retracements.

And the retracement R1 & R2 levels provide us good oppurtunity to short the stock and whenever the stock reached new low it provide us the huge oppurtunifty to go long in this stock.If you follow the pattern you would get a
great buy around the lower trendline which comes roughly near 650(Buy for short term) and a breakout buy above the upper tredline 850(Long Term).

Friday, September 12, 2008

Crude trading near major resistance

Crude : $100.78/barell

We may see range bound behaviour between $100-110 as crude is highly oversold bounceback will be expected level and hard support seen at $100. Any break below $100 will lead to a target of $86

Updated View

Retracement in crude is about to get over.
Crude All time High = 147
All time Low = 48
Diff = 147-48 = 99
50% retracement = 147-49.5=$97.5
61.8% retracement = 147-61=$86

Retracement in crude is about to get over.Max downside may be btw $86-97.5. Currently crude is highly oversold. But sell signal technically.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Show No Mercy to IDFC

CMP : Rs 92.50
 
IDFC showing a selling pattern from 30 min charts.
Supports at 88 below that 75 and 70 are the targets.
I would recommed to go short  in futures with stop
at 97.

Nifty 30min Charts Wont reflect Sentiments

Nifty CMP : 4288
 
It an easy guessing day. As anybody would guess from the singapore nifty or may from the cues of Dow Jones that market gonna start with a positive note.

But you can infer from that charts that the today's morning start up move in the nifty is predecided yesterday itself.

Nifty 20 EMA - 4335(30min charts)
Nifty 20 EMA - 4370(60 min charts)
 
 
 
 


Short on bounce back is the good strategy.. No Sentiments

How to be a Succesful Trader - Trading Lessons

Seventy Thousand to Rs 55 Lakh - The Chaoist

It was August 2007 and I had been trading for 2 years by then, working hard, learning everything I found on the markets, but I had still had no rewards. In fact, I had just Rs 70,000 left in my trading account. I could do all kinds of technical analysis, build trading systems, etc., but it was not leading me to profits and success in trading.

I had sacrificed my college education, so that I could be successful trading, but here I was, down to my last few thousands. I decided that if I lost this Rs 70,000, I would try and make a living selling trading systems and by giving tips to other traders.

However, come August 2007, everything changed. I suddenly started to make money. The Rs 70,000 I was down to, now started growing exponentially, until it reached what is now Rs 55 lakh - yes Rs 55 lakh!

So, what had changed suddenly?

I have no precise answer. I even wondered how a 21-year old like me, without college education, and who was perhaps in the middle of the trading curve, was able to make so much money, while there were so many more people with much more knowledge, still struggling in the market? My young mind was suddenly filled with many questions?

Was trading a game of technicals? What separates a winning trader from a losing trader? Was my journey from Rs 70,000 to Rs 55 lakh merely a product of luck? There are many questions to which I need to find the answers, but I decided to share the few reasons that I think lead to my success in trading in last one year:

1. I cannot deny the fact that I was lucky. Life is unfair - this is a fact. When I had Rs 70,000 at the beginning of August 2007, a few losing trades could have wiped out all my money. So at that time I was lucky enough to survive despite being undercapitalized. However, I think later on, after these 1-2 months it was not just pure luck that brought me to Rs 55 lakh.

2. I am believer of the Van Tharpe trading model trading, which says: Trading is 10 percent technicals, 40 percent psychology and 50 percent risk management. I concentrated on the last two things and it paid off. To manage risk, I was trading only intraday, and I never traded overnight positions. This may sound contradictory to the many sermons one receives on how it is so terrible to being an intraday trader.

3. My sole policy was to survive first and then make money. If you are surviving in markets and losing small, you will have time when you are favored by luck and you will make it big.

4. A trader without risk management is like a lonely girl got struck in a boy's hostel. If you are using leverage, you should either be hedging your positions or you should not carry overnight positions. Otherwise it is just a matter of time when a big gapup or gapdown will wipe you out.

5. The old classical things we need to fight are fear, greed, hope and bias. Bias is ignored by many but it can cause serious problems.

6. Becoming successful trader is a process. It is like any sport, which you learn the basic rules but then develop your own style. Let us say cricket - each batsman (or bowler) has his own style, which is unique to him. You cannot fully copy anyone, but you can learn from others and develop your own technique of playing in markets, based on your strengths.

7. There are unlimited number of ways you can make money in the markets and unlimited number of ways you can lose.

8. Supports and resistances are for making bulls and bears hope. If you use technicals and want to become a sound technical trader, then I would advise to go for automatic system trading. For others always remember not to use supports and resistances for hoping in the markets.

9. Trading is very simple but it is not easy.

10. Keep your losses small and let your profits run. You have read that in many places but this holds true, so implement it practically.

11. Remember the worst mistakes are made at the best times and best of the trades are made at the worst times.

11. Feel free to short sell. Short selling is a great way to make fast money.

12. Always be prepared for the worst, and and when you are feeling stuck, remember these lines: "The further you run from your sins, the more exhausted you are when they catch up to you. And they do".

13. There are no shortcuts. You have to go through learning the process of trading.

14. If you did well paper trading, it is not necessary you will do well in real-time trading. It has the same difference as in batting at Net practice and batting under pressure on the field.

Extact : Bhoomitrader

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

IDFC Intraday notes

CMP : 93.10

Yesterday there is a huge play from IDFC in testing the support 200min MA and likely broken
today and if it this resistance remain broken then we can expect one more hard knock
from this counter.

200 min MA - Normally act as a support if the stock trades above the line and act as resistance
once is try broken this line. If this stock is in bearish mode and for the first time it try to break
its 200min MA line.... then it will try to play an immediate restore game and failing to close below
this support or breaking this support will invoke a huge downtrend and viceversa

But stocastics is giving a more clear signal for both the entry and exit points
and more over allowing us to take multiple trades to play this stock both the way.

Its time to bet for 300pts downside on Nifty

Nifty  CMP : Rs 4466

Still No collapse to the Head and shoulders pattern and the pattern will collapse only nifty manages to close above 4550
Nifty Hourly charts and the RSI patterns says that possible testing the supports 4198 once again or even 300pts downside 

in nifty.

Monday, September 8, 2008

IDFC Still Testing my patience

CMP : Rs 93.80

IDFC Still testing my patience. Upside now limited to 97... the upside band is getting 
decreased day by day.... And this is not a huge consolidation.... It may be a good
breakdown pattern below Rs 88


Tracking this pattern right from 02, Aug, 2008 onwards just have a look


IDFC 30 min Charts



And from the inference of 30 min charts IDFC giving a good clue to short
IDFC futures for a target of 90 and 88. And Breaking below the support
could make this stock to crack for a further target of 78 and 75

Nifty 30 min charts - Is it a weak start tommorow




Nifty CMP : Rs 4482
 
RSI and Stocastic oscillator getting overbought indicating a weak start in tommorow morning(9 th Sep, 2008)
 
RSI(14): 72.6
Stocastic(14) : %K : 72.13 %D : 79.29
 
Supports as per 30 min Charts
 
20 EMA : 4470
200MA : 4400
 
 

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Rolta and Inverted Hammer

Stock : Rolta
CMP : Rs 326

Rolta Shows a Inverted Hammer pattern in weekly charts  and here is a strategy about how to trade a Bullish 
Inverted hammer. Also Still on Daily and Weekly Charts Rolta Continues to trade bullish above 20 period EMA

How to trade a Bullish Hammer

If you are a regular Swing Trader reader, then the inverted hammer should seem very familiar. However, you may not be able to put your finger on exactly why it looks so familiar.


If you examine the inverted hammer carefully, it hardly looks like a bullish candle. Prices opened low and then rallied strongly. By the close of trading, however, the stock has given back almost all of the day's gains. That leaves a small real body and a very large upper shadow. If anything, the candle looks bearish. The bulls could not sustain a rally, so the bears took the stock back toward its lows for the day.

So, why should this candle potentially set up an important reversal? My theory is that the inverted hammer is a signal that shorts are beginning to cover their positions.

Here is my reasoning. Since the inverted hammer can only occur after a sustained downtrend, the stock is in all probability already oversold. Therefore, the inverted hammer may signify that shorts are beginning to cover. In addition, traders who have held long positions in the security, most of whom are now showing large losses, are often quick to dump their shares by selling into strength. This will also serve to drive the stock back down.

With this candle, it is imperative to watch the next day's trading action. If the stock opens stronglyand remains strong during the day, then a key reversal is likely in progress.So If Rolta starts trading above 340 range then you can expect an immdiate bounce upto 374-385 levels in short term

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Rupee and Sensex

Nifty CMP : 4352

Charts Showing Comparision of Sensex Vs USDINR Charts and the 20 day EMA
Crossover indicates a buy/sell signal. And this charts explain how forex markets are
related to Indian Stock Markets. I don't know how to explain since i was novice to 
forex markets. And the chart says that whenever a buy signal generated in rupee
there is a corresponding sell signal in Sensex. But i think the chart explanations
is quite easy to understand where we are moving.

Inference from Three Year Charts

And from the charts we clearly see that during February,2007 our rupee trade nearly
at 44.5/Dollar what we exactly trade now. Buy that time sensex trading around 14,500
what exactly we trade now in sensex

And still the Charts shows a buy signal in rupee.. means it could extend
upto Rs46/Dollar.

And again from charts we cleary see that during october 2008 our rupee trade nearly
at 46/Dollar . And Buy that time sensex trade at 11000 and odd pts.

This is What gonna happen now.... And the fundamentalist people go and search
what is going to be fundamentally wrong... Coz everything technically going right.

Nifty and Head and shoulders

NIfty CMP : 4352



The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most often seen in uptrends. It is also most reliable when found in an uptrend as well. Eventually, the market begins to slow down and the forces of supply and demand are generally considered in balance. Sellers come in at the highs (left shoulder) and the downside is probed (beginning neckline.) Buyers soon return to the market and ultimately push through to new highs (head.) However, the new highs are quickly turned back and the downside is tested again (continuing neckline.) Tentative buying re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but fails to take out the previous high. (This last top is considered the right shoulder.) Buying dries up and the market tests the downside yet again. Your trendline for this pattern should be drawn from the beginning neckline to the continuing neckline. (Volume has a greater importance in the head and shoulders pattern in comparison to other patterns. Volume generally follows the price higher on the left shoulder. However, the head is formed on diminished volume indicating the buyers aren't as aggressive as they once were. And on the last rallying attempt-the left shoulder-volume is even lighter than on the head, signaling that the buyers may have exhausted themselves.) New selling comes in and previous buyers get out. The pattern is complete when the market breaks the neckline. (Volume should increase on the breakout.)

Head and Shoulder Characteristics

A technical analysis term used to describe a chart formation in which a stock's price:

1. Rises to a peak and subsequently declines.
2. Then, the price rises above the former peak and again declines.
3. And finally, rises again, but not to the second peak, and declines once more.

The first and third peaks are shoulders, and the second peak forms the head.


Example Chart from Investopedia.com



Nifty Head and shoulders pattern shows a ready made target of 3800 if breaking 4200 in downside
or even lower targets are possible.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Crude Oil - Technicals

For the First Time Trying to Interpret Commodities Charts and Starting with
WTIC - Light Crude

WTI Crude : CMP : 106.23

EOD Charts



Crude Broken the Major Support 200MA $111/Barrel and currenlty at oversold levels
and the downside resistance coming near $100 as shown

Inferece From Weekly Charts



Weekly Charts signals supports at $100 Few Bounce backs may expected as crude
is heavily oversold at this levels. Breaking the supports may expect $78 on the cards


Nifty Caught Between the Fibonnaci levels


When i try try to feed the recent high's and lows in the fibonacci calculator... iam getting these values. So 50% Fibo level(4362) got broken already and a support taken near 61.8% Fibo level(4325). And Now we Closed between the fibo levels.

Just Thinking What Next??

Download Both Fibonacci and Pivot Point Calculators Here. Useful one for day trading and guessing the 
Fibonacci retracement levels.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Nifty Hourly Charts - Any Downside Bets???

Nifty Hourly Charts Signalling Oversold RSI levels. So Blind downside bets from your side
before the market starts???

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Nifty one final sentiment needed to break the bear market

Nifty CMP : 4504

Almost All the Indicator Turn Bullish Except one Hurdle. 20Day EMA Weekly Resistance currently at 4528. And Today We are not able to cross today. Stiff Resistance to
need to be crossed to speak about higher targets in nifty.

EIA Petroleoum status report to be released tommorow will confirm the price action
of crude by tommorow night. Still one last sentiment to break this hard rock to enter into the bull zone

Crude : 107.54

Also Rising rupee factor is good or bad to Nifty.... Iam not able to correlate with nifty

Nifty Trading Notes on 2nd September 2008

Nifty Intraday Charts for Sep 2, 2008.
 
More Nifty Intraday Notes and Strategies Here:
 
  • Simple Intraday Strategies to be followed
  • How to Profit from Nifty Intraday
  • Nifty Trading Notes on 20th June 2008
  • How to take Multiple Trades in Nifty Intraday
  • Nifty Trading Notes on 7th July 2008
  • Nifty Trading Notes on 8th July 2008
  • Nifty Trading Notes on 9th July 2008
  • Nifty Trading Notes on 11th July 2008
  • Nifty Trading Notes on 18th July 2008
  • To get the real time intraday Charts for  online visit http://nsetracker.blogspot.com

    Monday, September 1, 2008

    Breakout in Everonn Systems

    CMP : Rs 560
    Targets : Rs 600 and 640 and above 640 its can try testing 900 levels
     
    Weekly Resistance :  Near Rs 603
     
    Positive Tehnical Signals:
     
    1)High Stock Volumes with 14% upmove
    2)Can try Buying in Dips too
    3)MACD Crossover
    4)Raising Stocastics
     
     
     

    Nifty May Try Testing Resistance 4000-4438 Levels

    Nifty CMP : 4348
     
    Bullish Inside Bar Pattern Formed. Nifty May try testing 4400-4438 levels.Also US market
    closed on Labor Day. Uncle John is absent. Ask a student how he will feel in the absense
    of his teacher or Ask a Worker how he feel if his boss is absent  Crude currenlty trading
    below  $112/Barrel. Reliance Today Positive and Cairn in Negative once again.

     
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